Oil embargo on the horizon?

Could it be déjà vu all over again? It very well could. The big deal right now in the United Nations is the idea of recognizing Palestine as a new member of the UN. This is fast becoming a Big Deal, and it could become a big deal gone bad if the UN votes to admit them and the US vetoes that vote. (Somehow, the US apparently has that power.) The brown and squishy would hit the revolving blades right quick like after that. Be ready to duck.

One entirely possible scenario would be a repeat of the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973/74. For those of you a bit foggy on your 70s history (and honestly, who isn’t?), Saudi Arabia, in the fall of 1973, took exception to the US and western Europe backing Israel and stopped shipping oil to one and all. That they withheld five percent of the world’s available oil resulted in a quadrupling of the price of oil. Geez-o-Pete, did we have fun.

If you read my short story, “60 Days Next Year”, posted on the New Colonist web site, much of what I put in that story actually happened all over the US in the winter of 1973/74 as we all scrambled to keep on keeping on. It got ugly blindingly fast. And it could again. All we have to do is be a booger when the time comes.

Twenty-eight years ago, America went to voluntary gas rationing. We used an even/odd system, based on your license plate’s last digit. If your plate ended in an even number, or A through M, you got to buy gas on an even numbered day. If your plate ended in an odd number or N through Z, you bought gas on an odd numbered day. It was a simple system, and it drove us nuts. Sure, you could buy gas every other day, but then again, you also couldn’t buy gas every other day. We went crazy.

People were stealing plates so they’d have one of each. Gas stations were limiting how much you could buy, and if you weren’t a regular customer, you couldn’t buy from them at all. Lines for gas stretched around the block. People followed the gas tanker trucks to see where they were going. It was loopy. And we could go right back to that if we press our luck here real soon.

I am not going to get into a political discussion here about whether or not I think the UN should admit Palestine. I’m pretty sure they’ve admitted worse. I am, and will freely admit to being, a big fan of Israel. Still, I think the US can both back Israel and allow Palestine to be a part of one of the most ineffective organizations on earth. Why not? What does misery love?

But do keep an eye on this one, as a veto by the US will most definitely kick US/Arab relations right in the ol’ camel saddle.

Keep your bike tires pumped.  

Democracy and Oil: All Eyes on Libya

So finally, after I thought it was too late, the good guys got together and decided maybe they wouldn’t let Mummar Q. just go right ahead and kill everyone in Libya anyway. Thanks, guys - but why did it take you so long??? Geesh.

Okay, so now Libya is more of a police action. Not a war, exactly. It was a civil war, but now some other countries have decided to help keep the rebels from being totally decimated, so what have we got here? A skirmish? A hot bed? Whatever it is, it ain’t Viet Nam in a cat box. It will be over and done and soon. I hope. All concerned have promised air support, but not boots on the ground. Again: I hope.

Right now, 7 p.m. Sunday night, March 20, 2010, oil is at $102.87. That’s about where it’s been for awhile, dancing all around the $100 mark for weeks. I guess if it goes really badly in Libya we might see the price of oil climb, but then again, if the future of Libya involves the development of a stable democracy, that might not be so bad for the price of oil in the long run. And I’m all for that.

Contrary to popular opinion, I am not rooting for the end of the world. I don’t want to see the price of oil go through the roof. I drive a pickup truck. A big one. I don’t mow my yard with a goat. I’m currently paying $3.51 a gallon for gas, and that’s quite high enough, thank you very much.

Now here’s hoping Libya gets new management, and the new guys are smarter than the last guy. “Arab democracy” . . . man, there’s a new phrase. I like it. Could the Middle East be the new hotbed of democracy, with Egypt and Libya leading the way? Whooo-eeeee. I can’t wait to see what tomorrow brings.

Like I said: Here’s hoping.

Oil prices up, gas prices up - What can you do?

So here we have Libya and Saudi Arabia, two very different countries that both produce enough oil for each to export a fair amount, and both are in the news these days. Libya, the lesser of the two when it comes to oil production, has been run for some 40 years by a raving lunatic with serious fashion (and reality) issues. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is run by a very large royal family that I’d swear all look exactly alike.

Libya is in the midst of a rebellion/civil war these days that has caused the price of oil to rise. Libya is beset by what is termed, in the oil game, “above ground factors” – that is to say, people. Personally, I’m all for rebellion in Libya. It’s high time they boosted ol’ Mummar right off the longest dock in Tripoli. Do NOT make us send in the Marines. Again. But above ground factors are just that: Stuff we cause – and can fix – ourselves.

The Saudis are up against a far more solid wall: Below ground factors. As their production falls, they might do everything they can and still they may not be able to maintain their current level of oil production in the years ahead, let alone increase production to make up for the shortfall in Libya, or anywhere else. They day they admit that publicly, if they ever do, will be a red-letter day for oil. And a bad day for the rest of us.

I saw a wonderful quote today about the price of gasoline. The writer said the price of gasoline is not set by what it cost to produce, but what it will cost to replace. Wow. Great quote there. So look for the price of gas to go up. Maybe a lot. A friend of mine that owns a gas station said today that he expects to see four-dollar gas by the end of March. And that’s a full two months before the traditional start of the North American Driving Season that starts on Memorial Day weekend and runs through Labor Day weekend. Will we see five-dollar gas across the US this year? My Magic 8 Ball says “OUTLOOK GOOD”.

So what are you going to do about it? Don’t bother with any sort of boycott or “gas out” you may hear about. They don’t work. Even if you don’t buy the gas, someone else will. It’s a global commodity. And please don’t go and protest the price of gas at your local gas station. It’s not their fault. Often, it’s not even their gas. They just sell it on consignment, and make very little, if anything on it.

Do you really want to protest the high price of gas? Then you’re going to have to get proactive and seriously radical. You’re going to have to think outside the box, break all the rules and answer to no one. You’re gonna have to be a loner, march to your own drum and make a statement.

You’re gonna have to ride a bicycle.

WikiLeaks Exposes Peak Oil Reality

Oh, geez, Lousie: Here we go. WikiLeaks just pulled the rug out from under the Saudis by publishing the contents of some cables about their oil production — and the fragility thereof. The potential lack thereof. Where have I heard this before? Let me think . . . Oh, yeah, just about everywhere. For years. The only difference is, this comes from the Kingdom itself. This is not good. This is bad, even. Very, very bad.

Look, it’s one thing for a guy like me to sit on the other side of the world and speculate on what might be happening, oil-wise, in the Empty Quarter of the Arabian Peninsula. I’m speculating. That’s a nice word for guessing. I’m making it all up. But as it turns out, I was guessing right. So were a lot of other people, as it turns out. Everyone but the Saudis, it seems. For years (for decades), the Saudis have stood there and smiled and said there were no problems. Everything is fine. Don’t worry. Be happy. And for all of those years, we bought the act. We wanted to buy the act. We had to buy the act.

Back in 2001, I wrote Ghawar is Dying, a short essay for The New Colonist web site, outlining how the beginning of the end might, well, begin. I caught some flak from oil types for it. They wanted to know how I gained access to the restricted oil fields in the middle of the Saudi desert. They were not happy, and I don’t think they believed me when I said I’d never been there. I made the whole thing up, but as it turns out, I think I might have been right. And that was ten years ago.

In 2004 I wrote Sixty Days Next Year, also for my good friends over at The New Colonist. The fictitious events in “60 Days” have yet to come true, but the headlines of the past few weeks out of Egypt show that all things are possible in a great big hurry, and those 60 days could start tomorrow. Please, just remember: I was never there and it’s not my fault. Seriously. It was supposed to be fiction.

If the cables exposed by WikiLeaks portend events yet to come, as in coming soon, we are all in for a wild, wild ride. If the Saudis can’t smooth this one over, we are staring the great peak oil monster right in the face; and buddy, whatever you do, don’t blink. If the Saudis admit they are facing peak oil production, we may see the price of oil rise like a bottle rocket. I remember the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973. The loss of just 5% of the world’s oil supply caused the price of oil to quadruple. Quadruple. With oil bouncing around $90 when I checked it the other day, are you ready for $360 oil? No. No you aren’t. No one is.

Best case scenario: The Saudis do what the Saudis do better than anyone else on earth: They smooth it over. They schmooze. They smile and talk their way out of it. And in all honest, I do sincerely hope they can. Worst case scenario: Gasoline in the United States goes to over $10 a gallon in very short order, and is rationed like you wouldn’t believe. I remember the gas lines in ’73. I drove a VW back then, so it was no big deal. This time around, it will be different. It won’t be a four-month political event. It will be permanent.

My advice to you: If you don’t have a good, practical bicycle, go buy one, and soon. If you do have a bicycle, go buy baskets for it, fenders, a good lock and some lights. And buy a bicycle helmet, rain cape and cycling gloves while you’re at it. You are going to want all of that, and very soon. I hope I’m wrong. I hope the Saudis can schmooze their way out of this one, as they have in the past. But if they can’t?

Welcome to our brave new world. Just don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Planes, Trains and Automobiles - Peak Travel

Eric Morris, in his “Peak Travel?” article in the January 11, 2011 New York Times, has pointed out that we madcap, drive-crazy Americans are now actually driving less, and have been since 2005. From the end of WWII to about the year 2000, it was all about driving more and going further each year. These days, not so much. Now we go less. Is this a peak oil thing? Maybe sort of, but not exactly.

While it is true that we tend to drive less as gas gets more expensive, the massive tide of internet shopping has also served to cut down the annual miles driven. Oddly enough, Eric was only looking at miles driven. I would like to have seen some mention of miles flown, and of miles traveled by train. And I would have liked to have seen flying miles drop as rail miles rose - but I can’t say that is happening. I didn’t see it. But maybe we really are traveling less.

In the comments after Mr. Morris’s article, one poster (“Drill-Baby-Drill drill Team”) pointed out that the grand iconic classic of all road trips, the one where Joseph took Mary back home from Jerusalem to Bethlehem to comply with that pesky Roman census thing, was a trip of only eight miles. And my lovely wife points out that there is no mention in the Bible of a donkey being involved, making it rather likely that Mary walked.

The point to be made here is that at one time, a trip of eight miles was a very, very big deal, indeed. A trip of, quite literally, Biblical proportions. These days, it’s lunch. I figure I could walk eight miles in a little less than three hours, as I tend to saunter along at a blistering three-mph clip. Those same eight miles would take less than an hour on my bicycle, and about 15 minutes in the truck, depending on the lights. But what if we go back to bikes and donkeys and feet?

Considering the viability of mass transit in America, the foot-and-bike option seems likely as the oil gets scarce. Author James H. Kunstler (www.kunstler.com) has famously said America has a rail system that would be an embarrassment to Bulgaria — and he was being polite. We essentially have no passenger rail system to speak of for the vast bulk of America. You wanna get there? Then you wanna drive.

I live in Clearwater, Florida, right across the bay from Tampa and just north of St. Petersburg. Pinellas County, home to St. Petersburg, Clearwater, 22 other cities and almost one million people packed tightly into just 280 square miles, has no passenger rail service at all. No light rail, no Amtrak service, no Disney-inspired monorail, nothing. We have some buses, but even they don’t go to all corners of the county. There are two buses that go to Tampa, but only on weekdays. Oh, we do have a Greyhound Bus Station over on the other side of the mall. Maybe. I honestly haven’t thought to even look to see if it’s still there, now that I think about it. We are, after all a nation of drivers, even if we are driving less.

And what if we are driving less? That’s a good thing. I expect we’ll see more of that, or less, I guess. I’m hoping as we all drive less we’ll see more of what was right there all around us all along. We will live locally, and we will (finally) know where we live. We will become neighbors. I like that. Do you?

Baby, it's cold outside

Ok, so it’s cold here right now. I did not come down here for this. I live in west central Florida (Clearwater), and they’re talking about it being down in the thirties here for a couple of nights. Yeah, I know, compared to, say, Minnesota, this ain’t so bad. Balmy, even. By the end of the week, it will be back up in the 70s, so I’m not complaining, but still…

So what do you suppose will happen up north when natural gas and heating oil start to get too expensive, and then become unavailable in the coming years? How long would your house be inhabitable in the winter when the power goes off? These are not idle questions. Of the four seasons, there’s one that can kill you. What’s it like where you live in the winter? And is it worth the risk? It’s not like you’re going to get much of a warning on this, you know. (Well, other than me. Here. Now.)

In his book, The Adjustment, Charles MacArthur wrote of the disaster that befalls the New York metro area when the power grid fails totally in the middle of a February blizzard. It is a stark and sobering look at just how fast it can all go so very badly when the power goes off in deep winter — especially in a big city. A matter of hours. Maybe minutes. In his novel, Charles writes of an immediate and mass migration south, by any means necessary. Not everyone makes it. I think he got that part absolutely right as well. I do expect to see people moving to Florida in record numbers as the north (the Midwest and the northeast) becomes more difficult and less comfortable in the years ahead, all in the aftermath of peak oil and declining natural gas supplies. Lacking power and heat, I would expect Canada to be emptied out in fairly short order — and I wouldn’t blame them one bit. It gets cold up there, I hear.

Sometimes I wonder if a slow decline in energy resources is worse than a sudden crash. Slow declines tend to offer hope — it might not be that bad — we might turn it around — maybe it’s gonna be okay. With a fast crash, you know you’re pooched and you have to deal with it Right Now. Fast is a great motivator.

Until last winter, I said I never knew why anyone would live north of I-10. We had such a long, cold winter here last year, I’ve amended that to I-4. Another bad one and I’m dropping it down to Alligator Alley. And St. Thomas, in the USVI, is looking mighty good about now. Ah, but we will be warm and sunny again by the weekend here. All will be well. For now. For us.

If you live in the far north, or even north of I-10, you might want to take a very serious look around you. Three seasons a year, you’ve got a good thing going, but winter is not your friend. Please don’t mistake it for one. And always remember: The Sunshine State awaits!

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Green gas (station)? Good Grief!

Charlie Brown said it best, and with feeling: “Good grief.” My lovely wife made sure I saw an article in the paper this week about a “green” gas station. And no, I don’t mean that’s the color they painted the building. They do honestly believe they have an environmentally conscientious gas station. And they say that with a straight face. Good grief, indeed.

The commercial establishment of note is the Bayshore Breeze Mobil station, on the northwest corner of Alt. US 19 and Curlew Road in north Dunedin, Florida. Having just undergone a major renovation, the rebuilt structure has attained a “green business certification” from something called the Green Business League. (I’m picturing something akin to the Munchkins’ Lollipop League, but maybe a little taller.) All I can offer in their defense, and it isn’t much, is this: It’s not really a gas station anymore. It was before they rebuilt it. It had repair bays and broken cars parked around it and mechanics and everything a real gas station is supposed to have. Now it’s just a convenience store with gas pumps. But is it green?

“What makes the gas station green,” the article states, “is in the details.” Such as? All gas appliances, they say. Since when is natural gas green? It’s a non-renewable natural resource like oil and uranium. I could never figure out why we call it “natural gas.” As opposed to what? We don’t call it natural coal or natural oil, do we? Again: Good grief.

The article mentioned that “a special spray foam insulation” was used to insulate the building, but no mention of what it really was. Was it oil-based? No idea. My guess is yes, but who knows? They are using LED lighting and solar tubes – so I’ll give them the “green light” on those. The flooring is made from recycled tires, so they get another greenie point (as opposed to a brownie point) there. They plan to use non-toxic cleaning products, and use the air conditioner’s water run-off for the plants. Sure, why not. But why not design the building to not need the air conditioning in the first place? Ah, well.

The gas station is about nine miles north of me, so I may pedal up that way one day next week and check it out. Hey, I’m all for green – even light green. The article had a photo at the top of the front of the new gas station. The sign above the door reads “Bayshore Breeze Market & Grill.” Some gas station. And you know what I don’t see in the photo? A bike rack.

Some green. MTT279FQ9HAW

So, what's your plan?

I had a great kick off last month with my first book signing for Peak of the Devil at the Dunedin (Florida) public library. There was a lively crowd and we had a lot of fun. The event coordinator’s mother (age 93) was there early, stayed late, and was a joy to talk to both before and after the event. I spoke for about a half-hour or so and then took questions. And boy, did the crowd have questions. Mostly, they had very good questions. Mostly.

At some point toward the end of the evening, a fellow about four rows back wanted to make sure I knew that T. Boone Pickens was going to save America by converting the nation’s entire trucking fleet to natural gas. I tried to point out that natural gas was simply another non-renewable natural resource, and that it would seem unlikely that the trucking industry (not to mention the fuel industry) would embrace T. Boone’s cunning plan.

He would hear none of it. T. Boone was All That to him, and T. Boone was going to save us. (The “T.” stands for Thomas, by the way.) There was no arguing with him, so I didn’t. I couldn’t. I’ve seen this near-religious devotion to Mr. Pickens before. He’s sort of like a Basset-faced Ron Paul in that regard. I do find that sort of unquestioning devotion odd, to say the least, and expect a religion to pop up around the both of them any minute now, if it hasn’t already. Of course my wife, the lovely and ever-supportive JoAnn, was in the last row, well behind this guy, quite literally doubled over in her chair laughing. I just love it when I can bring a smile to her face. I live for those warm moments. But I couldn’t look at her without cracking up myself. Thank you, my dear.

Friends, I honestly do not believe that Mister Thomas Boone Pickens is going to save America. T. Boone’s number one goal in life is to take good care of T. Boone. Period. The man did not make his considerable fortune by being magnanimous. I do not believe that natural gas is going to save us, but yes, I do worry about the nation’s trucking industry. We rely on those long-haul trucks for just about everything. We really are going to need them, as it doesn’t look as though we’re going to get our ducks lined up when it comes to upgrading the nation’s rail system, which would help take the burden off the truckers as diesel fuel gets both expensive and scarce. (Trains offer a far more efficient tons-hauled-per mile than trucks.) I just don’t see the trucking industry converting to natural gas any time soon. Like, ever. Sorry, T. Boone.

Do I recall correctly that liquefied natural gas, as used in converted motor vehicles, contains less energy per volume than gasoline? That a vehicle running on said gas gets worse fuel economy because of it? If so, it makes no sense at all to convert from one depleting natural resource to another you’d need more of just to break even. I seriously doubt we are in any position to ramp up our natural gas extraction to be able to supply the trucking industry on a scale that would do any good, and I’m not even getting into the annoyance of converting a portion of the nation’s fuel delivery infrastructure (gas stations and truck stops) to be able to fill up all of those trucks with LNG nationwide. It would be a nightmare. Of course, ol’ T. Boone wraps it all up in Old Glory and says we have to stop buying oil from people that hate us and declare our energy independence. At least he got that part right, but I also suspect that it will happen soon enough no matter what we do. Peak oil, remember? Yeah, peak oil.

Oh, and the punch line to the evening: The noisy guy didn’t even buy a book. Big shock there, huh?

The Real Problem with Peak Oil

The biggest problem with peak oil isn’t peak oil. It’s us. All of us. All seven billion of us. We have absolutely no Plan B, and too few of us (hardly any of us) understand that time is fast running out for Plan A. I have long said that Americans are lousy planners, but great at responding to a crisis. Man, I sure hope I’m right about that, because we have done zero planning for this one. We are barreling right along into the greatest crisis man has ever had to face, and too many of us (all of us) are flying blind with the throttles wide open. We haven’t got a plan and we haven’t got a clue.

Peak oil is going to catch everyone off base – even people that think they know what’s going on. (I only pretend to know, but at least I know I’m pretending.) None of us have any idea how hard this will hit or when. Too few understand that it will hit at all, and too many still deny it. If my book gets more people interested enough to ask questions, please: ASK QUESTIONS. Ask your local elected and appointed officials: What are they doing to get ready for this? Ask at every level of government: What about peak oil? Chances are you’re going to get little more than a blank stare, a smarmy government smile and an answer that has nothing to do with the question at all. Keep asking. Especially as we go into the next big presidential election cycle for 2012.

The only government in North America I know of right now that has done any serious study at all on peak oil and what they are facing is the City of Portland, Oregon. By all means, do get a copy of the Portland Peak Oil Task Force report and get it into the hands of your local officials. No, they probably won’t read it, but you did what you could. (And do read that report yourself.) The words “peak oil” need to be as annoyingly common as “drill, baby, drill” was awhile back. We need to hear the words “peak oil” being said. A lot.

There is no IQ test to run for public office. (That kind of explains just about everything right there, doesn’t it?) Elected officials are no smarter than the rest of us. (Even being AS smart would be a step in the right direction.) We all use the same Magic 8 Ball to help guide us through life. I do not expect my government to save me from peak oil. I do not expect to be able to save my government from same. But we have to at least try. Make the effort. At least ask.

What if I’m wrong about Peak Oil?

Back in the 1970s there was a bumper sticker that read simply: QUESTION AUTHORITY. I think that’s still a valid request, and I think the bumper sticker and some little buttons with that phrase are still available today. The thing is, I’m no authority. I’m just a guy who reads a lot and writes a little. Still, you should ask: What if I’m wrong?

What if oil doesn’t peak? What if supplies don’t get tight? What if we just keep on keeping on, always finding enough oil to get us by in the years and decades ahead? Boy, wouldn’t that be great? Not many people want to be wrong. On this, I’d be delighted.

What you have to ask is this: How much do we know about global oil production with absolute dead certainty? The answer is "Not much." What we do know is this: The peak of oil discoveries world-wide was back in the 1960s, some 45 years ago. We also know we are using oil faster than we are finding it. And in all honesty, that’s all we know for absolute dead certain. Everything else is an educated guess.

We do not know how much oil remains in the earth, nor do we know where it all is, or if we can get to it, ever. Because that is really what we know, we say this: We will never extract all of the oil. There will always be oil in the earth. But you have it understand that “peak oil” is not about the last drop. It’s simply about the production curve. At some point, we assume, we will no longer be able to extract enough oil to meet our base-line demand. That is, we will not be able to conduct our lives as we do now, even after we implement available energy alternatives and conservation. Even after demand destruction. At some point, oil depletion will become a first world problem. Our problem. Of that, I am fairly certain.

But, again what if I’m wrong? Tell you what: If I’m wrong, and the oil doesn’t run low, I’m gonna buy the 1972 Cadillac Eldorado convertible I always wanted and drive that sucker coast to coast with the top down and Springsteen on the eight-track.

Wanna come along?

Another oil rig explodes. Second verse; same as the first?

I’m ‘Enery the eighth I am, ‘Enery the Eighth I am, I am… no, wait, I’m really not. And I know you hear people say they hate being right all of the time, but you won’t hear that from me. I don’t mind so much. So here we go again already so soon.

In the news today: Another oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico has exploded. This one is 80 miles off the coast of Louisiana. No word yet on any leakage, but at least no one was killed. We’ll see how the story evolves over the next day or so.

I’m the guy who said we could expect more of this sort of thing, but I honestly didn’t expect to see another one so soon. Then again, it has been over four months since the Deepwater Horizon went to the briny deep. Desperation breeds adventure, it seems. Oil companies are willing to take the risk because they have little choice. If you want the oil, and they want to sell you that oil, they have to go where the oil is, and they’ve already been where most of the oil was. We’ve plucked the low-hanging fruit, and now we’re serious about trying to keep up appearances and keep the oil flowing — no matter what it takes, who gets hurt or how many fish get in the way. Drill, baby, drill!

In truth, if you looked at every oil well in the Gulf of Mexico, you’d probably find a lot of them leaking oil to one degree or another. Such is the unnatural nature of the business. But that ain’t news. The darned thing has to blow up to make it on TV. And you’d better believe this will be the lead story tonight.

So sit back, relax and get comfy. Here we go again. Second verse, same as the first. And I can’t help but wonder where Peter Noone is these days.

The Boy Who Cried “PEAK!”

For every person out there that thinks the world’s supply of oil will some day peak, there’s another person even further out there that is just as sure it won’t. These are the “Cornucopians”, who see the earth’s supply of oil as virtually inexhaustible. This “Oil Forever” camp can be roughly divided into three broad groups: You have your Economic Cornucopians that believe that demand (price) creates product, the Techno-Cornucopians that are sure that technology will save us and provide a never-ending supply of energy, and my personal favorites, the Chewy Nougat Center Cornucopians that are convinced that the center of the earth is full of “abiotic” oil. I kid you not.

And every one of these wonderful, thoughtful shiny people are more than happy to point out that the people that predict peak oil have been predicting the peak of oil for a very long time. Like for over a hundred years. And it hasn’t happened yet. (As far as we know.) People that do predict the peak of global oil are very often accused of crying wolf. “Remember the boy who cried wolf”, they will say, with a smile and a wink and a sort of knowing nod to dismiss anyone so foolish as to think that we might some day run low on oil. Perish the thought, if not the thinker.

So I’ve been thinking, and here’s my thought for the day: Yes, people that believe that we might some day run low on oil are very much like the boy that cried wolf, but not for quite the same reason. The boy cried wolf because he craved the excitement. We cry wolf because we lack complete, accurate data and must, for lack of a better world, guess at what we are seeing and what it all might mean.

The funny thing is, those that accuse us of crying wolf forget how the story ends. At the end of the story, there’s a wolf, and people don’t listen.

Life imitates art yet again. Woof, woof.

What are the Chinese up to, really?

Ah, those crazy, madcap Chinese. So wise. So inscrutable. So very many of them. What are they playing at, do you suppose? For as long as I have been reading (and writing) about peak oil, I have been reading about the Chinese, and their wild push to Westernize. More cars! More roads! More power! But why? They hate the West. Why would they want to emulate a culture they find offensive? Wrong question.

The question to ask is this: Why are the Chinese so bent on using up all of the oil? I’ve long had my suspicions, so I have to ask: Do they know what they are doing? The Chinese, with well over a billion people milling about, can easily ramp up their oil use and seriously hasten the downside of global oil product after it peaks. And then they can keep demanding more oil until they force the depletion curve over a cliff. But why would they want to do that? Why would they want to do the very thing that would pretty much speed the end of Western civilization as we know it? Oh, wait – I just answered my own question there, didn’t I?

The Chinese produce something like 40 million bicycles a year. They were, until recently, quite the total bicycle society. They have functional mass transit and low energy homes. Their population is not used to being Western, so even now, it would be very easy for the Chinese to revert back to their original low-oil lifestyle with very little disruption. They could use up all the oil, ruin the West, and go right back to being Chinese and never bat an eye. They would, though, quietly smile, knowing what they had done.

The funny thing is, there’s not a thing you or I can do about it. They can play the “We want to be like you!” game until oil goes to $400 a barrel, and no one will think anything of it. No one will think to blame them. At some point, we will all be too busy fending for ourselves to see what happened and why – and who sped up the drop. But now you know: In the big dinner plate of life, we are General Tso’s Chicken.

Pass the soy sauce, Yuan.

The gloves come off. The claws come out.

You know me. I’m a nice guy, more than willing to give everyone the benefit of the doubt. But if there is no doubt? Watch out.

On December 21, 1988, Pan Am Flight 103, from London to New York, blew up over Lockerbie, Scotland. Two hundred and seventy people lost their lives. In January of 2001, Abdelbaset Ali Mohaned Al Megrahi, a Libyan, was convicted of the bombing and sentenced to life in prison for the event. He was serving that sentence when a doctor examined him, proclaimed that he had advanced prostate cancer, and should be released on humanitarian grounds and returned to Libya to live his last days. He was released in August 2009 and returned to a hero's welcome. As of July of 2010, Megrahi is alive and well.

Now, as it turns out, Megrahi’s examination, diagnosis and repatriation were all arranged by British Petroleum in return for some consideration by Libya for a deal with BP for oil rights in that country. And that subtle shaking noise you just heard beneath your feet? That would be the Devil himself, shuddering in disgust. Even the Prince of Darkness, it seems, has higher moral standards than British Petroleum.

It’s one thing to screw up out of greed and laziness and corner-cutting and have your oil rig blow up. It’s quite another to go considerably out of your way to aid a convicted terrorist and a very unpleasant regime that quite honestly hates you anyway, just because you think you can make some money off the deal. Money made over two hundred and seventy dead bodies. Money made because you freed their murderer, and you didn’t even agree with him or his ideology. You just wanted the chance to make the money, with no concern for honor, pride, ethics or morals. This takes it to a whole new level. British Petroleum is neither lazy nor greedy. British Petroleum is pure evil.

Now it’s true that various elected officials here in the United States are looking into BP’s actions, but we are talking about things that happened in other countries, so there was really no crime committed here on US soil – unless you count the very presence of BP itself, and I do. And by now, you know merely boycotting your local BP station will have no impact whatsoever on BP the corporation. In a perfect world, which this is obviously not, BP would be removed from the US and all of its upper management, world-wide, required to finish the terms of Megrahi’s life sentence. Every last one of them. But that’s not going to happen, either. The Scottish Government will “look in to it,” as will ours, and, in the end, it comes down to this: They got away with it. BP got the guy out of prison and got him sent home, where he lives to this day. At some point, BP will quietly begin its oil operation in Libya, and at some point, someone’s going to be driving around with gasoline that should be dyed very blood red to reflect its true source.

And when it comes to British Petroleum, even the Devil has to step back in awe.