Oil embargo on the horizon?

Could it be déjà vu all over again? It very well could. The big deal right now in the United Nations is the idea of recognizing Palestine as a new member of the UN. This is fast becoming a Big Deal, and it could become a big deal gone bad if the UN votes to admit them and the US vetoes that vote. (Somehow, the US apparently has that power.) The brown and squishy would hit the revolving blades right quick like after that. Be ready to duck.

One entirely possible scenario would be a repeat of the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973/74. For those of you a bit foggy on your 70s history (and honestly, who isn’t?), Saudi Arabia, in the fall of 1973, took exception to the US and western Europe backing Israel and stopped shipping oil to one and all. That they withheld five percent of the world’s available oil resulted in a quadrupling of the price of oil. Geez-o-Pete, did we have fun.

If you read my short story, “60 Days Next Year”, posted on the New Colonist web site, much of what I put in that story actually happened all over the US in the winter of 1973/74 as we all scrambled to keep on keeping on. It got ugly blindingly fast. And it could again. All we have to do is be a booger when the time comes.

Twenty-eight years ago, America went to voluntary gas rationing. We used an even/odd system, based on your license plate’s last digit. If your plate ended in an even number, or A through M, you got to buy gas on an even numbered day. If your plate ended in an odd number or N through Z, you bought gas on an odd numbered day. It was a simple system, and it drove us nuts. Sure, you could buy gas every other day, but then again, you also couldn’t buy gas every other day. We went crazy.

People were stealing plates so they’d have one of each. Gas stations were limiting how much you could buy, and if you weren’t a regular customer, you couldn’t buy from them at all. Lines for gas stretched around the block. People followed the gas tanker trucks to see where they were going. It was loopy. And we could go right back to that if we press our luck here real soon.

I am not going to get into a political discussion here about whether or not I think the UN should admit Palestine. I’m pretty sure they’ve admitted worse. I am, and will freely admit to being, a big fan of Israel. Still, I think the US can both back Israel and allow Palestine to be a part of one of the most ineffective organizations on earth. Why not? What does misery love?

But do keep an eye on this one, as a veto by the US will most definitely kick US/Arab relations right in the ol’ camel saddle.

Keep your bike tires pumped.  

It's just a phase we're going through...

Saw an article in the newspaper the other day about how we are running out of helium. My sympathy to Simon, Theodore and Alvin. The funny thing was, as I read the surprisingly lengthy article, I could see where you could easily cross out “helium” and pencil in “oil” and the article would be just as valid. It’s always seemed odd to me that the fact that we are running out of oil has never really been big news. No idea why. You’d think it would. It should.

The thing is, what was being said about helium, and what could be said about oil, could also be said about every non-renewable natural resource on, or in, earth. With seven billion people milling around on the big blue marble, we are using up stuff like mad. So yeah, a lot of it is going to run out. Not just the oil and helium.

Richard Heinberg did his very best to warn us with his book, Peak Everything (New Society Publishers, 2010). Obviously, Mister Heinberg is not one to beat around the bush. Rather than try to list everything that we risk using up without replacement, it might be easier to list the stuff we won’t run out of. Let’s see… I’ve got that short list here somewhere… on a very small piece of paper. Ah, here we go:

Solar power, wind power, and, um, yeah, well, I told you it’s a short list. There are many things we do and use now that we will always be able to do to some degree, but maybe not to the huge degree we do now. Like travel. Like farming. Once we use up all of the natural non-renewable resources, human enterprise will sort of stumble into its next phase: The “re-use it or lose it” phase. We are currently wrapping up the “we got it all!” phase, having managed to drag ourselves out of the “hunter-gatherer” phase awhile back. Don’t worry, it’s just a phase we’re going through.

With few exceptions, earth’s natural resources are a sort of use-once proposition. Oil, natural gas, coal, uranium, helium, you name it, you use it- but only one time. After that, it’s gone forever. We do have some stuff we can reuse, like water. And we can plant more crops to grow more food, but with less help from oil, et cetera, we’ll get less food with every round. We are running headlong into an era of less, even as we demand more. It’s going to be an epic train wreck. Assuming we’ll still have fuel for the train. (Okay, so maybe it won’t be a train wreck. Maybe the train will simply roll to a silent halt.)

There’s really no way for you to truly prepare for this sort of thing. We will deplete our natural resources over the years, decades and centuries. But we already see it begin. We are about out of helium. The Chipmunks will finally reach puberty. Oil will get iffy and the ten thousand other things we extract from the earth will be a little less plentiful every year. Little by little, over time, we will be nibbled to death by ducks.

But hey, did we have some fun there for awhile or WHAT?!

Kids today . . .

Kids today. Sheesh. There, I said it. I’m officially a geezer. Still: Kids today. Sheesh. So I’m out in the garage the other day, fussing with bicycles. That’s what I do. Everybody knows it. People bring their bikes by, and I try to fix them. Most times, I do. Hang on a minute, the phone’s ringing…

Ok, where was I? Oh, yeah: So the other day, this boy stops by. He’s fourteen, maybe fifteen. In high school. Six feet tall, and riding a bike built for someone shorter than me. Fine. What’s the problem? The seat’s loose. Excuse me? The seat is loose. Can you tighten it? Yeah, I can do that. I can do that blindfolded. Without looking, I reach into my wrench drawer and pull out the correct 14mm combination wrench. A couple of good tugs on the seat bolt and she’s snug. Done. That quick. The kid rides off happy and I stand there pondering the fate of kids today. Sheesh.

So yeah, I’ll admit that I can’t operate about 100% of the techno gizmos on the market today. I don’t even have a cell phone. The youth of today are ahead of me there, but: The kid couldn’t scrounge up a wrench to tighten his own seat?  What’s the world coming to? Are we evolving, if that’s the right word, into a people that can no longer do anything? Are all physical and mechanical skills slowly being phased out in place of phone apps? Are we going to end up as fat blobs staring at small screens? Oh, wait, we’re mostly already there. Never mind.

I ride my bicycle around town, and I see a lot, but let me tell you what I don’t see so much any more: Work benches and tools in garages. I’d say less than one garage in a hundred is set up for someone to actually do something in there. For the most part, garages in America today are simply cheap storage facilities. Some of them even have room for a car. My garage holds about 30 bikes and trikes, two motorcycles, two motor scooters, a pick up truck, and ten foot long workbench with a bench grinder on one end and a drill press on the other. And a ton of tools. Probably literally. My man cave rocks. 

I like working with my hands. I like to fuss with bikes and I like to build stuff. I like to make noise and make sawdust and at the end of the day, I like to have to really work at it to get my hands clean. That makes me feel like I did more than stare at a screen all day. (As I stare at my computer screen right here right now.) Do they even teach “Shop” in school any more? I took years of it, and I’m very glad I did.

My Dad was a carpenter before he joined the Army, and he always had a well equipped workshop no matter where he lived. I continue that tradition, and with many of his original tools. I know how to sharpen a drill bit. I know how to sharpen a saw. And I do. In this modern, disposable society we are fast loosing the craft workers and trade skills that we need to keep it all running. People don’t fix things any more. They simply buy new, then pay to have it installed. I can’t do as much as I used to, but I still do what I can.

But what of the kids I see? The ones that can’t tighten a bolt? Will the physical world mean that little in the coming years? I don’t think so. I think it will still be important, if not vital, for a person to be able to do real things with real tools themselves. And it looks as though no one is teaching that any more. Too bad. You can’t drive a nail with your cell phone, kid.

Oh, and that phone call earlier? Neighborhood kid. A different one this time. His handlebars were loose. Could I tighten them? Kids today. Sheesh.

Pick a car . . . .

Alas, the Tesla Roadster is no more. Or rather, they’ll stop taking orders for them in a couple of months. And while this is touted as big news in the auto world, I’m not shedding a tear for the loss. Did the world really need a $109,000 electric car? Apparently only 1,650 people thought so. And I was not one of them.

The car was based on the Lotus Elise platform, meaning it looked like it was designed by a 14-year-old boy trying to impress his older friend who has a driver’s license. Sure, it went from zero to sixty in under four seconds and it would do 125 mph, but it could take up to 48 hours to be fully charged. Let’s see . . . charge for days, drive for hours. Nope, not for me. You?

So Tesla has decided to stop making an electric sports car and go for a sedan. Is that going to fare any better? The new machine is priced at $58,000, but the first ones will go for $80,000. (Huh?) If you have any stock in Tesla, you also have my sympathy. I’m not sure what the public is really looking for these days in personal transportation, but I’m pretty sure it’s not an eighty thousand dollar sedan with a limited range that takes forever to “fill up”.

What I’d like to see someone build (or import to the US) is a small car with a one-liter gasoline engine. Make it a 90-degree V4 with fuel injection and offer it with either a six-speed manual or four-speed automatic transmission. Make it out of aluminum, so it’s both light and rust-free. Have it seat at least three people, or two plus groceries. And paint it bright colors. I hate grey cars. Oh, and could you maybe make it NOT BORING?

Small cars don’t have to be dull. They can be cool and fun and exciting. The new Fiat 500 looks like a party on four wheels. The Smart Car is still interesting. The Mini Cooper rocks. Me, I think the Toyota Yaris is a fun little egg. I’d drive that!

In the years ahead, we’re going to see all sorts of fun with the global oil supply, and I don’t doubt for a moment that the trend in personal transportation will be small, smaller and smallest, pretty much in that order. That doesn’t mean we have to settle for boring and dull cars. If we’re going to pay a fortune of gas, let’s get our money’s worth — let’s have some fun!

Ok, yes, for now I’m driving a big Chevy pickup truck, but hey — I’m looking. I want to know what’s out there and what my options are. Saw a pristine early 1980s Pontiac Fiero in the grocery store parking lot the other day. Remember those? This one looked as new. I wonder where it’s been hiding? And I wonder if we could get Chevrolet to bring back the Corvair, if for no other reason than to make Ralph Nader’s head explode.

It would be worth it for that alone.

Remember "Fifty-Five Saves Lives"?

That three-syllable word, those three little syllables, are being whispered again in the hallways and conference rooms in Washington, D. C. They are being mentioned in hushed tones with a knowing nod, a wink and a finger aside the nose. They are thinking about it out loud, but you haven’t heard them say them yet. You will. Just three little syllables:

“Fifty-five”.

Do you remember? Are you old enough to recall? It was the 1970s, an era of disco, big hair and Jimmy Carter, the peanut farmer what done good despite his brother Billy. To conserve energy, to conserve oil, the national speed limit was dropped to fifty-five. States that did not comply faced losing federal highways funds. So we all drove fifty-five. Or at least we pretended to when anyone was looking.

I remember driving the ninety miles or so out to Disney World under the new speed limit. Over sixty miles of the trip is done on I-4; a road where, no matter how fast you go, someone will pass you. Taken at fifty-five, the ride was leisurely and bucolic. Very relaxing. I have to say that even then, as young and wild and free as I was, I did enjoy the laid back pace of fifty-five. I was also driving a ’72 VW Bug, but it was capable of going faster. Ah, fifty-five. Homer Simpson said it best: “Sure, it will save some lives, but millions will be late.” My 1981 Yamaha SR500 motorcycle still sports the speedometer style of the era: “55” is highlighted in red, and the thing only reads to 85, despite the machine being capable of much more. That was the trend of the day.

Will we be returning to those lethargic drives of yesteryear? If we do, I hope we do it right this time. Sure, fifty-five saved fuel out on the open road, but we don’t drive on the open road all the time. What about the lesser roads? What about around town? If we do go back to a reduced speed limit (and I do believe we will eventually), I suggest we make a sweep of it; that is, yes, lower the national rural speed limit to fifty-five, but then get in there and finish the job: Lower every road’s speed limit by at least five miles an hour. If you’re going to save, by golly, then save.

It will be interesting to see if we do go back to the lowered speed limit. Right now, the political timing is off. That’s not something you do unless you absolutely have to — if you want to be re-elected. For the U.S. to drop its speed limits again, there will have to be a crisis worthy of the effort again. In the 70’s, it was the Arab Oil Embargo. And now? Will peak oil, or a sudden cutoff of our oil supplies for whatever the reason be enough to get us to slow down? I see no way that Americans would accept it simply because it made good sense. We have to have a pressing reason to make sense. Hopefully with the usual attached media circus.

Lake Avenue runs north-south along the west side of our house. It gets about 4,000 cars a day, and it seems like most of them are traveling well in excess of the road’s 30 mph speed limit. Mister President, if you read this, you can start right there with that lowered speed limit thing. Any time. Please.

I can drive fifty-five.

Peak Oil or Peak Oil Production?

M. King Hubbert had it easy. He was proven right in just 15 years. As a geologist for Shell Oil, Hubbert predicted in the mid-1950’s that US lower-48 oil production would peak right around 1970. And he was right. Maybe not overly popular, but right. Now here we all are, trying to figure out when global oil production will (or did) peak. It’s a much tougher job. Like I said, Hubbert had it easy.

I often equate peak oil, and the crash that is predicted to follow, as being rather like a glacier that is very slowly crawling toward a small Alpine village. The glacier is moving down the mountain one meter a year. The village isn’t moving at all. So it’ll get there, it’ll just take time. Be patient. The glacier is still moving.

When people first read about peak oil, they get all excited and panicky, and then they wonder why everyone else isn’t all excited and panicky. Yeah, well, it’s not like that glacier has picked up any speed. And it never helps when there’s been a long history of mis-predictions when it comes to peak oil. Unlike predicting the peak of US oil production, there are simply too many variables when it comes to predicting the peak of global oil. And too many lies.

It’s also too easy to look at the price of oil and see that as an indication of supply - and of the peak. If the price of oil drops, too many people see that as proof that peak oil is still far in our future. I see low oil prices as a factor that may hasten the peak as well as the fall predicted to follow that peak. But the price of oil is a lousy indicator of overall supply.

If the price of oil drops, oil products (like gasoline) get more affordable. People drive more, use more gasoline, and save less oil for later. As the price of oil drops, the incentive to search for more oil drops, as does the urgency to develop alternatives to that oil. It just ain’t worth it while oil is cheap, and it’s tough to do when it’s expensive.

In a perfect world, we would not be watching the price of oil at all, but we would have access to accurate global oil production data on a timely basis. In a perfect world, we would be able to monitor the world-wide flow of oil, to track the ebb and flow, and we would be able to see obvious trends in the supply of that oil all over the globe. In a perfect world, Snooki would not be a household name, entertainment sensation and media darling. Alas, we do not live in a perfect world.

And when the wind blows down off that mountain, the glacier chills the town. It’s that close.

Kill your car?!

Well, maybe not quite yet. ABC Radio National host Robyn Williams posed the question the other day: “(Is this) the beginning of the end for cars?” Good question, Robyn. With gas prices going for all-time highs here in the U.S. this summer, I suspect more and more people might be waking up and taking a much harder look at that big hulking hunk of steel in their garage. But are the car’s days truly numbered?

Right around the turn of the the last century (1900), the automobile was still an experimental rich man’s toy. (And yeah, a toy for experimental rich men.) They were expensive and weird and uncommon until after World War One, and before that, seeing one was An Event. By the time we got through World War Two, the automobile was as much a part of the American Scene as Americans themselves. We became, in every way, a Car Culture. And we still are. But will that - could that - come to an end? Maybe later.

With the subject of this blog and my book being peak oil, we have to consider the possibility. Well, I do. You can go watch Hamster Dance again if you want. (I love those little fuzzballs!) Ok, focus… cars… oil. Oh, yeah. So here’s the deal: Yes, the car is in a tough spot right now. Gas is pricey, and quite likely to get more so, and most unlikely to get cheap any time soon. Like, ever again. I’ve long said that the private automobile is not the highest, best use for oil, and I still know that to be true. But there are far worse things we do with oil. There are definitely a few other things that should fall by the wayside first.

Let’s start with the entire commercial airline industry. If the average airliner holds 200 passengers, how many of them really had to make that trip by plane? How many of them really had to get there that fast? I’m guessing pretty much none of them. The airline industry is this coal mine’s canary when it comes to oil. They will be about the first big industry to die. If you hold any airline stock, last year would be a good time to sell it.

Then there’s the cruise industry. At least the airlines go some place. Cruise ships just go out and come back. Sure, they’re fun and exotic and fattening, a great combination, but geez, Louise - look at all the oil going out that smokestack! How long can they keep that up? And wouldn’t a sailing ship make more sense? (And be way cooler?) Yo-ho.

When it comes to just going out and back, private aircraft are often little more than oil-burning ego trips. Literally. More often than not, a private plane takes off and lands at the same airport. They go up, they fly around for a bit, they come back, and they didn’t do a darned thing but burn fuel the whole time. Yeah, that was a great use of oil. Go team.

When I moved to Florida in 1969, the causeways were lined with Hobie Cat sailboats. They were (and still are) the very definition of cool on water to me. Hobie Adler is a genius, and you can tell him I said so if you see him. The thing is, those cats take some skill to sail. Done right, they are fast and a thing of beauty in motion. Done wrong, and they are upside down, (but easily righted). You don’t see too many Hobie Cats out there these days, and I honestly believe that is our loss.

Now it’s all about jet skis, and they suck. Well, they both suck and blow. They suck down oil and gas, and they blow out nasty fumes. And they go nowhere. Where the folks with the Hobies would get out there and go places, the jet skis mostly do circles about 100 yards offshore and that’s it. Whadda waste. I missed seeing the colorful sails and the flying hulls. But it gets worse.

Leaf blowers. There, I said it. The absolute worst possible use for our precious remaining oil resources are the legions of idiotic, noisy gas-powered leaf blowers that rack and ruin the gentle ambiance of every suburban neighborhood every freaking weekend. And I don’t just say that because I like to take afternoon naps. (Well, ok, I sort of do.) Still, leaf blowers are an insane waste of energy. They do nothing; they just blow stuff around. Stuff you should maybe have raked up instead. Duh. I will be so glad when they are gone. Party at my place. Seriously.

Ah, but the car? (Remember? The car?) Well, there’s a good chance all of this other stuff will fall by the wayside long before you see your last car drive by. What began as a rich man’s toy more than a hundred years ago, will go back to being a rich man’s toy in the next hundred years. The automobile’s general, everyday use will drop, and people will adapt and find other ways to get around - or stay home - but the car will be with us, in some fashion, for quite some time, I suspect. And I’m ok with that.

That means I might still, some day, own an Avanti. Cool.

Believe in the power of the bicycle

I found religion on my 60th birthday. Oh, sit back down and let me explain. For my 60th birthday, I decided that I would host a Tweed Ride out to Safety Harbor and have an ever-so-genteel lunch at the Spa. It was delightful. A lovely day all around. As we rode up Safety Harbor’s Bayshore Trail along Old Tampa Bay, toward the marina and the Spa, the thought occurred to me that people might mistake us for members of some old-school religion. Mennonites, perhaps. We were riding antique black bicycles and were dressed (rather conservatively) as one might have dressed for a bicycle ride in England in 1935. I was wearing knickers and knee socks, a long sleeve shirt, vest and bow tie. The Lovely JoAnn exuded an equally vintage charm. That is to say, we looked like a couple of odd ducks on old bikes. It had to mean something, right? I told JoAnn what I had thought, and she said, no, we were not Mennonites. We are Veloists. We believe in Veloism. And by Ignaz, I think she’s right!

In this politically correct world in which we live these days, it’s considered bad form to ask one’s religion, age or political persuasion, so it probably won’t come up in polite conversation, but, should anyone ask, I now have an answer to the question, “What am I?” I am a Veloist. I believe in Veloism. I believe in the power of the bicycle. Always have. Always will.

H. G. Wells famously said that he did not despair for the human race when he saw an adult on a bicycle. Wells was a Veloist, and I understand that. I feel at my best when I am off on a wheel, as they say, touring around town and seeing the world from the exalted position of a bicycle seat. I really do feel better when I am on a bike, and I feel as though I am a better person for riding; physically, mentally and emotionally. I believe in the bike. I believe in the power of the bike to make me that better person. So help me Schwinn. (And can I get a “Campagnolo!” from the congregation?)

At a modest pace, the bicycle allows you to burn about 400 calories and hour, so yes, there are most certainly concrete physical reasons why the bicycle makes you feel so good. Exercise releases endorphins that give you that “runner’s high” as you ride, so yes, we can quantify that good feeling you get when you ride your bike. Still, there’s more to it than that. On a bicycle, you are part of the world around you, as opposed to being sealed off and removed from the world around you in a car. You are as one with the earth. How Zen-like. Um, make that how Velo-like.

As oil supplies get tight in the years ahead, I expect to see more and more people, more and more Americans, anyway, discover the simple joys of Veloism, whether they want to or not. Yes, I know many of you will be dragged there kicking and screaming all the way. Funny thing about that: Oil is often referred to as an addiction. I’ve never heard of anyone talking about Petroleumism. One’s reliance on oil to answer all needs is seen as a bad thing, while the Veloist is merely seen as a happy kook. Well, for now. I hope to see that change in the years ahead, and we may see Veloism go mainstream.

When gas prices spiked to over $4.00 a gallon back in 2008, people were starting to take me rather seriously. I could have made a lot of converts to Veloism, and maybe did make one or two. I’d wheel my bike into the elevator, and the polite questions would begin: How far? How fast? What about rain? Dogs? Hills? As a devout Veloist, I answered every question. I hope it helped people see the bicycle light.

Maybe I need to work on this. Flesh it out a bit. Maybe write a book on the subject. The funny thing is, I abdicated my claim to the obvious title of that book when I saw another cyclist lay claim to it. Grant Petersen, out at Rivendell Bicycle Works, came up with the same word I coined at about the same time I did: Velosophy. It’s a grand and wonderful word, and I told him he could have it. I knew I didn’t really need it, and another word would come along, all in good time. And it did. While velosophy explores the philosophy of the bicycle, veloism raises it to a (tax-exempt) religious status. Or maybe not.

Let me say right here, in writing, that I have absolutely no intention of pursuing Veloism as a legal, tax-exempt real religion. That would be wrong, and require the filling out of far too many forms. But I do lay claim to “Veloist” and “Veloism” to describe the religious relationship of people and their bicycles, even if it was JoAnn that coined the phrases originally. I claim them on her behalf. How’s that? Oh, and this is Blog #42, the perfect one to explore the meaning of life, the universe and everything. As it turns out, the answer might not be “42”. The answer might be “Go ride your bike.” The answer might be Veloism.

Habeas sentiari bike fatigat. That’s “Keep your bike tires pumped” in Latin. Have I got a cool religion or what?

Ignaz says go ride your bike.

A World With Less Oil: Are you prepared?

Sometimes, if I’m paying attention, I get to see small glimpses of our future. They are always fleeting and soon gone, but I see them, sometimes at the outer edge of my vision. And maybe that’s how the future arrives: in bits and pieces, a little at a time, starting out around the edges.

I open the garage door and walk outside on a Sunday morning around sun-up. No traffic on Lake Avenue. No planes in the sky. Not a single unnatural noise. It is, for just a very short time before the world of man wakes up, a silent world without oil. Very nice.

The pump nozzles are bagged - the universal sign of “No Gas”. There are a dozen different reasons why that may be, but there it is: A gasless gas station, and maybe for a day or so, a glimpse of our future. Contrary to popular belief, I do not smile at this.

I stop to watch a group of cyclists pass me headed south to the park. They are not bike racers, just everyday people on everyday bikes, out for a ride. I like that. I expect to see more of that in the future. I do see more people riding with shopping bags these days, both empty and full, doing their errands a la velo. I like that a lot.

There in the grocery store - that fellow with bands around his pant cuffs, wearing fingerless cycling gloves and a bike helmet, with a backpack for the groceries. Oh, wait - that’s me. Well, it’s still a glimpse of the future for all of us, if we’re lucky.

I’ve been pleasantly surprised that my little oil book, Peak of the Devil, hasn’t caught more flack than it has for being an overly-optimistic (and overly simplistic) look at what must surely be our very bleak future. I tried to make it as ungrim as I could, considering how very grim it may turn out to be. And I do like the idea of us maybe being able to get by on much less than we have now - and maybe our lives will be better for it. But we need to start now.

We each need to understand what it is that we do that we won’t be doing later. That conspicuous consumption brought on by presumptive entitlement (didn’t know I knew the big words, did ya?) is going to hang like a rotting albatross around the necks of people too stubborn to adapt. You need to know this: It’s going to change. Be a good scout. Be prepared. Be prepared before you have to be prepared.

This past weekend, I hosted a Tweed Ride for my 60th Birthday. We rode our vintage English three-speeds out to the Safety Harbor Spa for tea and crumpets. Pinkies out. I had knickers made for the occasion. I wore a bow tie and a jaunty cap. And if this humble little ride is a glimpse of what is to come, of a world with less oil, then our future might not be quite so unpleasant as many, myself included, would have you believe. Next week we'll do it again in St. Pete.

Keep your bike tires pumped.

Democracy and Oil: All Eyes on Libya

So finally, after I thought it was too late, the good guys got together and decided maybe they wouldn’t let Mummar Q. just go right ahead and kill everyone in Libya anyway. Thanks, guys - but why did it take you so long??? Geesh.

Okay, so now Libya is more of a police action. Not a war, exactly. It was a civil war, but now some other countries have decided to help keep the rebels from being totally decimated, so what have we got here? A skirmish? A hot bed? Whatever it is, it ain’t Viet Nam in a cat box. It will be over and done and soon. I hope. All concerned have promised air support, but not boots on the ground. Again: I hope.

Right now, 7 p.m. Sunday night, March 20, 2010, oil is at $102.87. That’s about where it’s been for awhile, dancing all around the $100 mark for weeks. I guess if it goes really badly in Libya we might see the price of oil climb, but then again, if the future of Libya involves the development of a stable democracy, that might not be so bad for the price of oil in the long run. And I’m all for that.

Contrary to popular opinion, I am not rooting for the end of the world. I don’t want to see the price of oil go through the roof. I drive a pickup truck. A big one. I don’t mow my yard with a goat. I’m currently paying $3.51 a gallon for gas, and that’s quite high enough, thank you very much.

Now here’s hoping Libya gets new management, and the new guys are smarter than the last guy. “Arab democracy” . . . man, there’s a new phrase. I like it. Could the Middle East be the new hotbed of democracy, with Egypt and Libya leading the way? Whooo-eeeee. I can’t wait to see what tomorrow brings.

Like I said: Here’s hoping.

Oil prices up, gas prices up - What can you do?

So here we have Libya and Saudi Arabia, two very different countries that both produce enough oil for each to export a fair amount, and both are in the news these days. Libya, the lesser of the two when it comes to oil production, has been run for some 40 years by a raving lunatic with serious fashion (and reality) issues. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is run by a very large royal family that I’d swear all look exactly alike.

Libya is in the midst of a rebellion/civil war these days that has caused the price of oil to rise. Libya is beset by what is termed, in the oil game, “above ground factors” – that is to say, people. Personally, I’m all for rebellion in Libya. It’s high time they boosted ol’ Mummar right off the longest dock in Tripoli. Do NOT make us send in the Marines. Again. But above ground factors are just that: Stuff we cause – and can fix – ourselves.

The Saudis are up against a far more solid wall: Below ground factors. As their production falls, they might do everything they can and still they may not be able to maintain their current level of oil production in the years ahead, let alone increase production to make up for the shortfall in Libya, or anywhere else. They day they admit that publicly, if they ever do, will be a red-letter day for oil. And a bad day for the rest of us.

I saw a wonderful quote today about the price of gasoline. The writer said the price of gasoline is not set by what it cost to produce, but what it will cost to replace. Wow. Great quote there. So look for the price of gas to go up. Maybe a lot. A friend of mine that owns a gas station said today that he expects to see four-dollar gas by the end of March. And that’s a full two months before the traditional start of the North American Driving Season that starts on Memorial Day weekend and runs through Labor Day weekend. Will we see five-dollar gas across the US this year? My Magic 8 Ball says “OUTLOOK GOOD”.

So what are you going to do about it? Don’t bother with any sort of boycott or “gas out” you may hear about. They don’t work. Even if you don’t buy the gas, someone else will. It’s a global commodity. And please don’t go and protest the price of gas at your local gas station. It’s not their fault. Often, it’s not even their gas. They just sell it on consignment, and make very little, if anything on it.

Do you really want to protest the high price of gas? Then you’re going to have to get proactive and seriously radical. You’re going to have to think outside the box, break all the rules and answer to no one. You’re gonna have to be a loner, march to your own drum and make a statement.

You’re gonna have to ride a bicycle.

A Test Drive: Nissan Leaf

Busy Saturday last weekend. The Lovely JoAnn and I went over to Tampa to check out the all new, all-electric Nissan Leaf car. We got to the International Plaza (mall), and found that Nissan had carved out a chunk of the mall’s north parking lot for their little one-car car show. But they did bring more than one car.

We got signed in and then our little group of eight or so were routed through several temporary glass buildings as our guide told us all about the brand new Leaf and Nissan’s long history of electric cars. (Who knew?) They had photos of all of their previous prototypes, going back for decades. JoAnn and I both decided we liked their first one best - it looked like a funky milk truck. Very cool. They had a Leaf chassis on display, showing all of the batteries that were on board the Leaf. There were many, many batteries.

After that, we got to walk around a functional Leaf. It was pretty much a typical small car from Japan. Which is to say: everything looked good, everything fit, and it had that new car smell. Love that new car smell! Our guide told us that because the Leaf is so quiet, it has a loudspeaker out in front of the left front wheel that puts out noise when the car is going under 18 mph so it doesn’t sneak up on people. The motor itself had some fake engine casings around it so it looks more like a typical transverse four-cylinder engine that you are used to seeing in cars like this. I thought that was funny, but I understood their logic. Then we got to drive it. Well, I got to drive it. JoAnn rode in the back and a brave Nissan rep rode shotgun. Hello, pedal - meet metal.

I had heard that electric cars have plenty of low end torque and will surprise you. Yep, roger that. Maybe it’s the lack of any revving motor roar, or maybe it’s the one continuous whoosh of the direct drive, but let me tell you: You step on the go pedal (I can’t really call it a gas pedal, now can I?), and buddy-boy, this car goes right now. No stumble, no hesitation off idle, nothing but go. It also handles like a go cart. You have my word on that.

Nissan says the Leaf will go about 100 miles on a full charge, and will do 90 miles an hour. How long it takes to recharge depends on available charging voltage. Standard 110v house current will charge it, but you need to give it time. Like overnight. Add a 220v charging station to your house and you cut the charging time in half. I suspect most folks will go for that option.

We were told Nissan estimated the average annual cost of charging the Leaf at $560 per year. Of course that depends on the price of electricity where you live, but they had the facts and figures to show that it would be cheaper to charge the Leaf at home than buy the amount of gasoline it would need instead. And yeah, we do spend more that $560 a year for gasoline.

Now here’s where it got all funny: As we walked into their fenced-off area in the parking lot, we saw a brand new Trek Belleville bicycle sitting there, on display in their area. To me, the Belleville is one of the best thought out bikes in the world. If I were to design my own bike from the ground up, I’d be hard pressed to do better than that one. It’s a very cool bike named after a very cool bicycle movie (The Triplets of Belleville). But why was it there?

As it turns out, if you take the tour and drive the Leaf, which I did, you could make a 30-second video about the Leaf, and if your video gets the most votes of all the videos made at that test drive location (Tampa), you win the bike! Wow! So here’s the deal: Vote for me just as though I need another bike. I think if you get the most votes of all the videos in the US, you get a car or something, but hey, I just want the bike!

Here’s the video. (Don't click on the picture of me, but do click on the link below it)

https://www.drivenissanleaf.com/Win/Vote.aspx?b=9RC7AAWZF6FM

If nothing else, this will give you a chance to see what I look like and sound like. Which is to say, nothing at all like Richard Castle. Vote for Uncle Chippie!

Peak Oil Faithful

Some time ago, someone commenting on one of my blogs here made the observation that believing in the theory of peak oil was, to many of the believers, rather like a religion. I thought it was an interesting thing to say, and it stuck with me. It sticks still. But is it a valid observation?

I am probably the last person on earth to try to define what is, or is not, a religion. Or maybe I’m the perfect person, as I am situated so far from the action. How do you even go about defining religion? It has beliefs, certainly, and these beliefs must be taken on faith. They are, by definition, unprovable. And my spell check is telling me that “unprovable” is not a real word, so I’m taking that on faith as well.

A religion must have a back story – a history of existence. There must be something to be said about it. Now here’s the kick in the pants: You can have a religion without a god. Buddhism and Taoism, both fine, great and honorable religions of Very Long Standing, do not seem to address the idea of, let’s say, the whole shebang being slapped up by an old guy in a robe with a long white beard who looks a lot like Robert Crumb’s Mister Natural. (And who, by the way, recently put out a stunning illustrated Book of Genesis – I kid you not.) Ah, but we are drifting far afield. (And there goes that cursed spell check again. So now “afield” is not a word? Geesh.) (Oh, and “Geesh, too.) Focus, man, focus! Is peak oil a religion?

Well, let’s see: It has its core belief that oil production peaks, and then declines. Sort of like death after life. OK, check that one off the list. How about a back story? Got it covered: Marion King Hubbert came up with the theory over fifty years ago, and it has played out in field after field, so we have both back story and miracles all lined up. And we got us a jen-you-wine prophet in Hubbert his bad self. He’s even dead, as most good prophets tend to be.

And you have to take it on faith. You have to believe that Hubbert was right, and you have to have faith that yes, some day, oil will peak and then decline, never to rise again. Sorry, Lazarus. Not this time. While many detractors point to the receding horizon of the actual claimed event of peak oil as proof that it is a false religion, we are still working in a very short time frame as religions go. Months and years, instead of centuries. You gotta learn to have a little patience. All things come to those who wait. Or go away, if you are a peak oiler.

Now here’s the funny thing: If peak oil is a religion, if you’re going to call it that, then you also have to call the Cornucopians, who don’t believe we will see a peak to oil production, a religion as well. (They even have a sort of religiousy name.) The Cornos (just to give my spell check another spit-spewing spasms), take it on faith that big oil and technology will save us all, whether you are believer or not. (At least they aren’t picky about who they save.) They proudly point to the oil industry’s history of always being able to find more oil, and always being able to deliver the goods. So far. Okay, you can’t argue track record. You can’t buck history. But history ain’t the future, Spanky.

The guy that originally brought up this whole “peak oil as a religion” thing did so to make the point that peak oilers were a rather intolerant lot, and not prone to hear the other guys’ side of the story. They don’t care much for dissension in their ranks, but then again, that can be said of just about any group of humans on earth, religious or not. No one likes to have to argue their beliefs. We each believe what we believe, and my beliefs are not yours. Yours are not mine. And that’s ok. It all comes down to Russell’s Teapot versus The Flying Spaghetti Monster: Just because you can’t prove me wrong doesn’t mean I’m right. Just because I can’t prove myself to be right doesn’t mean I’m wrong. Only time will judge both sides of the case and offer a ruling. Eventually. Maybe.

When it comes right down to it, both sides of this coin are taking it on faith. Both have to believe what they think is right. But no matter what they do believe, in the end, only one of them goes home a winner.

I think I’ll stick with Lao Tzu.

WikiLeaks Exposes Peak Oil Reality

Oh, geez, Lousie: Here we go. WikiLeaks just pulled the rug out from under the Saudis by publishing the contents of some cables about their oil production — and the fragility thereof. The potential lack thereof. Where have I heard this before? Let me think . . . Oh, yeah, just about everywhere. For years. The only difference is, this comes from the Kingdom itself. This is not good. This is bad, even. Very, very bad.

Look, it’s one thing for a guy like me to sit on the other side of the world and speculate on what might be happening, oil-wise, in the Empty Quarter of the Arabian Peninsula. I’m speculating. That’s a nice word for guessing. I’m making it all up. But as it turns out, I was guessing right. So were a lot of other people, as it turns out. Everyone but the Saudis, it seems. For years (for decades), the Saudis have stood there and smiled and said there were no problems. Everything is fine. Don’t worry. Be happy. And for all of those years, we bought the act. We wanted to buy the act. We had to buy the act.

Back in 2001, I wrote Ghawar is Dying, a short essay for The New Colonist web site, outlining how the beginning of the end might, well, begin. I caught some flak from oil types for it. They wanted to know how I gained access to the restricted oil fields in the middle of the Saudi desert. They were not happy, and I don’t think they believed me when I said I’d never been there. I made the whole thing up, but as it turns out, I think I might have been right. And that was ten years ago.

In 2004 I wrote Sixty Days Next Year, also for my good friends over at The New Colonist. The fictitious events in “60 Days” have yet to come true, but the headlines of the past few weeks out of Egypt show that all things are possible in a great big hurry, and those 60 days could start tomorrow. Please, just remember: I was never there and it’s not my fault. Seriously. It was supposed to be fiction.

If the cables exposed by WikiLeaks portend events yet to come, as in coming soon, we are all in for a wild, wild ride. If the Saudis can’t smooth this one over, we are staring the great peak oil monster right in the face; and buddy, whatever you do, don’t blink. If the Saudis admit they are facing peak oil production, we may see the price of oil rise like a bottle rocket. I remember the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973. The loss of just 5% of the world’s oil supply caused the price of oil to quadruple. Quadruple. With oil bouncing around $90 when I checked it the other day, are you ready for $360 oil? No. No you aren’t. No one is.

Best case scenario: The Saudis do what the Saudis do better than anyone else on earth: They smooth it over. They schmooze. They smile and talk their way out of it. And in all honest, I do sincerely hope they can. Worst case scenario: Gasoline in the United States goes to over $10 a gallon in very short order, and is rationed like you wouldn’t believe. I remember the gas lines in ’73. I drove a VW back then, so it was no big deal. This time around, it will be different. It won’t be a four-month political event. It will be permanent.

My advice to you: If you don’t have a good, practical bicycle, go buy one, and soon. If you do have a bicycle, go buy baskets for it, fenders, a good lock and some lights. And buy a bicycle helmet, rain cape and cycling gloves while you’re at it. You are going to want all of that, and very soon. I hope I’m wrong. I hope the Saudis can schmooze their way out of this one, as they have in the past. But if they can’t?

Welcome to our brave new world. Just don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Planes, Trains and Automobiles - Peak Travel

Eric Morris, in his “Peak Travel?” article in the January 11, 2011 New York Times, has pointed out that we madcap, drive-crazy Americans are now actually driving less, and have been since 2005. From the end of WWII to about the year 2000, it was all about driving more and going further each year. These days, not so much. Now we go less. Is this a peak oil thing? Maybe sort of, but not exactly.

While it is true that we tend to drive less as gas gets more expensive, the massive tide of internet shopping has also served to cut down the annual miles driven. Oddly enough, Eric was only looking at miles driven. I would like to have seen some mention of miles flown, and of miles traveled by train. And I would have liked to have seen flying miles drop as rail miles rose - but I can’t say that is happening. I didn’t see it. But maybe we really are traveling less.

In the comments after Mr. Morris’s article, one poster (“Drill-Baby-Drill drill Team”) pointed out that the grand iconic classic of all road trips, the one where Joseph took Mary back home from Jerusalem to Bethlehem to comply with that pesky Roman census thing, was a trip of only eight miles. And my lovely wife points out that there is no mention in the Bible of a donkey being involved, making it rather likely that Mary walked.

The point to be made here is that at one time, a trip of eight miles was a very, very big deal, indeed. A trip of, quite literally, Biblical proportions. These days, it’s lunch. I figure I could walk eight miles in a little less than three hours, as I tend to saunter along at a blistering three-mph clip. Those same eight miles would take less than an hour on my bicycle, and about 15 minutes in the truck, depending on the lights. But what if we go back to bikes and donkeys and feet?

Considering the viability of mass transit in America, the foot-and-bike option seems likely as the oil gets scarce. Author James H. Kunstler (www.kunstler.com) has famously said America has a rail system that would be an embarrassment to Bulgaria — and he was being polite. We essentially have no passenger rail system to speak of for the vast bulk of America. You wanna get there? Then you wanna drive.

I live in Clearwater, Florida, right across the bay from Tampa and just north of St. Petersburg. Pinellas County, home to St. Petersburg, Clearwater, 22 other cities and almost one million people packed tightly into just 280 square miles, has no passenger rail service at all. No light rail, no Amtrak service, no Disney-inspired monorail, nothing. We have some buses, but even they don’t go to all corners of the county. There are two buses that go to Tampa, but only on weekdays. Oh, we do have a Greyhound Bus Station over on the other side of the mall. Maybe. I honestly haven’t thought to even look to see if it’s still there, now that I think about it. We are, after all a nation of drivers, even if we are driving less.

And what if we are driving less? That’s a good thing. I expect we’ll see more of that, or less, I guess. I’m hoping as we all drive less we’ll see more of what was right there all around us all along. We will live locally, and we will (finally) know where we live. We will become neighbors. I like that. Do you?

Let's go for a ride . . .

So here it is mid-January, and I’m planning for a comfy little bicycle ride in late March. Specifically, I’m planning the First Annual Pinellas County Tweed Ride on my 60th birthday, Saturday, March 26, 2011, and I would be absolutely honored to see you there. The ride will begin at 10 a.m. at Eagle Lake County Park on Keene Road in Largo, Florida. (The park has a parking lot designated for trail parking right in the middle of it. We’ll start there.) The ride will go from there, ten miles out to Safety Harbor, Florida, for a nice lunch at the classic Safety Harbor Spa.

And what, exactly, is a Tweed Ride? A Tweed Ride is a casual bicycle ride for owners of vintage English three-speed bicycles, and the proper cycling attire is required of all participants. I’m having a pair of pants altered to cycling knickers even as I type. They’ll be ready next Tuesday. I’ve a fine vest and cap, but I’m going to need just the right tie. And no, I am not joking. You’ve probably never seen me in a tie. Few people have. And now you will.

Why bother? Why got to all the trouble? Because we can. Because it looks like a truly wonderful way to spend the day. And because I don’t look nearly so clever in spandex. Mostly, I blame these guys: www.3speedtour.com. Have a good long look through that incredible web site. That is a two-day ride in Minnesota. Mine is but a short one-day ride in Florida, but you get the idea. If the whole world looked like that wonderful web site every day, I’d be a very happy man, indeed. I shall, in the meantime, settle for just one day of it: My Birthday. Would you like to go for a ride?

In a concession to the harsh reality of modern life, the ride will avoid roads entirely. We will utilize the sidewalks on Belleair Road to get us to Pinellas County’s Progress Energy Trail, take that to Clearwater’s Ream Wilson Trail and take that to Safety Harbor’s Bayshore Trail — which will take us right to the front door of the Safety Harbor Spa. Ahhhh.

In truth, the ride is equal parts theater and cycling. You must dress the part and play the part of the proper English cyclist between the wars. You may drop the accent if you hold tight to the decorum. It will be interesting to see who shows up. The ride has already generated some local interest, as March is Florida Bicycle Month. It all comes down to who has the bike and who has the clothes. And who’s willing to put in 20 miles on that bike, dressed like that.

I would be thrilled if this ride became an annual event, and it just might. It’s like nothing else we’ve done down here in these modern times, so it might be quite the event to attend in the years ahead. Of course you’ll want to be at the first one, won’t you? Everyone will be there.

Just don’t snicker at my knickers.

Meatspace redux

After my rant about the importance of Meatspace, I have to say that yes, I do spend a fair amount of time in that alternate universe that is Cyberspace. In years past, I have been a regular on a very small number of forums, my all time favorite being a sort of general discussion forum hosted by my good friend Mahatma Randy. His was something of an invitation-only cybergathering, and was quite the crowd of entertaining literates. I miss it still and think about it often.

With the melt-down of Matt Savinar’s “Life After The Oil Crash” (LATOC) forum, I was lucky enough to have been found and directed over to its predecessor, The Oil Age forum at www.theoilage.com. This new forum is home to many of my friends from the old LATOC forum, and as you know, it’s always good to be among friends. If you have an interest in peak oil (and the fact that you are here, reading this, would indicate that you do), I recommend that you have a look at The Oil Age forum. No, you don’t have to read the whole thing. I sure don’t. I try to keep an eye on the peak oil breaking news and the general discussion forums, just to keep up with what’s happening back in Meatspace with regard to global oil.

For my bicycling news, I trust my friend Jack Sweeney and all of the good folks over at www.bikecommuters.com. I like to stop by there and see what’s new and who’s doing what where on a bicycle these days. It’s not exactly a forum, but you can post comments at the end of each entry. (Kinda like here.) Whenever I need an attitude adjustment, and need to go to My Happy Place, I dial in www.3speedtour.com. Ahhhhhh….. Now that’s what I want my whole world to look like every day.

And, of course, the other place I am is here. Each of my more-or-less weekly blogs on this site has a comments section at the end, and with the help of my ever-vigilant publisher, I do try to jump in and comment where comment is needed. But wait, there’s more. . . .

If you need to, you can always email me. I'm at chip.haynes@yahoo.com and I try to answer my email every day, except on days that I don’t.

Happy holidays . . . .

Jingle bells, jingle bells...! It’s Christmas time, and let me say this right up front: I really DO like fruitcake. (I guess that comes as no great surprise.) I also enjoy Christmas cookies, eggnog (non-alcoholic), and everything else that makes us make those ridiculous New Year’s resolutions. Whew. I really need to.

I also breathe a sigh of relief at the end of every year, knowing that we did another lap around the sun without any great resource glitch. As of right now, we still have plenty of oil, natural gas and coal — plenty of power. But, every year we manage to maintain the status quo is a year taken at the expense of the downside curve. Ain’t I just the greenest Grinch?

Oil is a finite commodity. Sadly, if not ironically, the Kardashians are not. We may have an endless supply of Kardashians well into the foreseeable future, while the oil is going to get tight, and the longer we use more of it now, the tighter it’s going to get sooner, later. And if you were expecting a “tight Kardashian” joke there, well, just keep in mind they have an infinite supply of lawyers while I do not. Anyway, this is Christmas, and we should all play nice. If only for a week or so.

In a couple of weeks it will be 2011, and it looks like maybe legendary oil guru Dr. Colin Campbell was wrong when he said we’d see serious oil problems in the first decade of the 21st century. (He did, however, totally peg the peak of oil production. Good call there, Doc!) We’re still moving right along, no worries in sight — and that’s a bad thing. The longer we stay ok, with plenty of oil, the steeper the drop will be on the far side when it starts to run out. Again, oil is a finite commodity. We can use it all up now, or we can pace ourselves. No, wait — it’s too late for that pace thing. Might as well use it all right now. Where are my truck keys?

So when you raise that toast on New Year’s Eve and watch Ryan Seacrest in Times Square, look around the room. Focus on your friends and family and understand: It will not always be like this. Enjoy it. Appreciate it.

Happy New Year, y’all.

Baby, it's cold outside

Ok, so it’s cold here right now. I did not come down here for this. I live in west central Florida (Clearwater), and they’re talking about it being down in the thirties here for a couple of nights. Yeah, I know, compared to, say, Minnesota, this ain’t so bad. Balmy, even. By the end of the week, it will be back up in the 70s, so I’m not complaining, but still…

So what do you suppose will happen up north when natural gas and heating oil start to get too expensive, and then become unavailable in the coming years? How long would your house be inhabitable in the winter when the power goes off? These are not idle questions. Of the four seasons, there’s one that can kill you. What’s it like where you live in the winter? And is it worth the risk? It’s not like you’re going to get much of a warning on this, you know. (Well, other than me. Here. Now.)

In his book, The Adjustment, Charles MacArthur wrote of the disaster that befalls the New York metro area when the power grid fails totally in the middle of a February blizzard. It is a stark and sobering look at just how fast it can all go so very badly when the power goes off in deep winter — especially in a big city. A matter of hours. Maybe minutes. In his novel, Charles writes of an immediate and mass migration south, by any means necessary. Not everyone makes it. I think he got that part absolutely right as well. I do expect to see people moving to Florida in record numbers as the north (the Midwest and the northeast) becomes more difficult and less comfortable in the years ahead, all in the aftermath of peak oil and declining natural gas supplies. Lacking power and heat, I would expect Canada to be emptied out in fairly short order — and I wouldn’t blame them one bit. It gets cold up there, I hear.

Sometimes I wonder if a slow decline in energy resources is worse than a sudden crash. Slow declines tend to offer hope — it might not be that bad — we might turn it around — maybe it’s gonna be okay. With a fast crash, you know you’re pooched and you have to deal with it Right Now. Fast is a great motivator.

Until last winter, I said I never knew why anyone would live north of I-10. We had such a long, cold winter here last year, I’ve amended that to I-4. Another bad one and I’m dropping it down to Alligator Alley. And St. Thomas, in the USVI, is looking mighty good about now. Ah, but we will be warm and sunny again by the weekend here. All will be well. For now. For us.

If you live in the far north, or even north of I-10, you might want to take a very serious look around you. Three seasons a year, you’ve got a good thing going, but winter is not your friend. Please don’t mistake it for one. And always remember: The Sunshine State awaits!

One more thing: if you still haven't found that perfect gift for the holidays, Peak of the Devil is on sale for just $12.95, free shipping and guaranteed delivery before December 25 if you order by December 21. Simply click here and we'll get it for you.

What about electric cars?

There’s been a lot of interest in electric cars lately, with the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt both about to hit the market. Too many people still see them as the answer to our dependency on oil, both foreign and domestic. Sadly, they are not the answer, and it’s tough to get people to understand that.

First, electricity is not an energy source. It is an energy carrier. That is, we have to generate electricity using another energy source — such as oil. Using oil to make electricity so we don’t use oil makes no sense at all. And yet, that’s exactly what people are lining up to do.

This next generation of electric cars (they’ve only been around a hundred years or so) still have a lot in common with their antique ancestors: they are expensive, heavy and have a limited range. Take a look at the Chevy Volt, if you can find one to look at. It will cost about forty thousand dollars and take up to ten hours at 110v to charge the batteries to go just 40 miles — about an hour’s drive on a ten hour charge.

The Nissan Leaf will go for over thirty thousand dollars and still takes eight hours to charge using an optional (recommended) 220v charging station you can have built into your home. Obviously, one does not buy an electric car to save money. No word yet on what replacement battery packs might cost for these cars when the time comes — and it will.

Power companies across America are both sweating bullets and jumping for joy. Sure, the extra income will help (and you’d better believe these things will make a serious bump in your monthly electric bill), but, in the words of the Associated Press’s Jonathan Fahey, “Plugged into a socket, an electric car can draw as much power as a small house. The surge in demand could knock out power to a home, or even a neighborhood.” Estimates on the cost of having a 220 volt charging station wired into your home go as high as $4,000 (for both the purchase of the charging station and the installation) over and above the price of the car, but not taking tax credits into consideration.

Electric cars are going to be the next Prius; that is, the next greenwash on wheels. People will buy them to look green, and still do nothing to curb their miles or their dependency on fossil fuels and private motor transport. They are not the answer.

To me, it makes more sense to buy a $10,000 subcompact and work harder to drive it less. Says the guy with the full-size pick up. Ah, well. It will be interesting to see how this next wave of electric cars are received by the motoring public.

And I just wish GM had worked harder to make the EV-1 their electric vehicle flagship. Now that was a cool electric car.