Alas, the Tesla Roadster is no more. Or rather, they’ll stop taking orders for them in a couple of months. And while this is touted as big news in the auto world, I’m not shedding a tear for the loss. Did the world really need a $109,000 electric car? Apparently only 1,650 people thought so. And I was not one of them.
The car was based on the Lotus Elise platform, meaning it looked like it was designed by a 14-year-old boy trying to impress his older friend who has a driver’s license. Sure, it went from zero to sixty in under four seconds and it would do 125 mph, but it could take up to 48 hours to be fully charged. Let’s see . . . charge for days, drive for hours. Nope, not for me. You?
So Tesla has decided to stop making an electric sports car and go for a sedan. Is that going to fare any better? The new machine is priced at $58,000, but the first ones will go for $80,000. (Huh?) If you have any stock in Tesla, you also have my sympathy. I’m not sure what the public is really looking for these days in personal transportation, but I’m pretty sure it’s not an eighty thousand dollar sedan with a limited range that takes forever to “fill up”.
What I’d like to see someone build (or import to the US) is a small car with a one-liter gasoline engine. Make it a 90-degree V4 with fuel injection and offer it with either a six-speed manual or four-speed automatic transmission. Make it out of aluminum, so it’s both light and rust-free. Have it seat at least three people, or two plus groceries. And paint it bright colors. I hate grey cars. Oh, and could you maybe make it NOT BORING?
Small cars don’t have to be dull. They can be cool and fun and exciting. The new Fiat 500 looks like a party on four wheels. The Smart Car is still interesting. The Mini Cooper rocks. Me, I think the Toyota Yaris is a fun little egg. I’d drive that!
In the years ahead, we’re going to see all sorts of fun with the global oil supply, and I don’t doubt for a moment that the trend in personal transportation will be small, smaller and smallest, pretty much in that order. That doesn’t mean we have to settle for boring and dull cars. If we’re going to pay a fortune of gas, let’s get our money’s worth — let’s have some fun!
Ok, yes, for now I’m driving a big Chevy pickup truck, but hey — I’m looking. I want to know what’s out there and what my options are. Saw a pristine early 1980s Pontiac Fiero in the grocery store parking lot the other day. Remember those? This one looked as new. I wonder where it’s been hiding? And I wonder if we could get Chevrolet to bring back the Corvair, if for no other reason than to make Ralph Nader’s head explode.
It would be worth it for that alone.
Showing posts with label cars. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cars. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Remember "Fifty-Five Saves Lives"?
That three-syllable word, those three little syllables, are being whispered again in the hallways and conference rooms in Washington, D. C. They are being mentioned in hushed tones with a knowing nod, a wink and a finger aside the nose. They are thinking about it out loud, but you haven’t heard them say them yet. You will. Just three little syllables:
“Fifty-five”.
Do you remember? Are you old enough to recall? It was the 1970s, an era of disco, big hair and Jimmy Carter, the peanut farmer what done good despite his brother Billy. To conserve energy, to conserve oil, the national speed limit was dropped to fifty-five. States that did not comply faced losing federal highways funds. So we all drove fifty-five. Or at least we pretended to when anyone was looking.
I remember driving the ninety miles or so out to Disney World under the new speed limit. Over sixty miles of the trip is done on I-4; a road where, no matter how fast you go, someone will pass you. Taken at fifty-five, the ride was leisurely and bucolic. Very relaxing. I have to say that even then, as young and wild and free as I was, I did enjoy the laid back pace of fifty-five. I was also driving a ’72 VW Bug, but it was capable of going faster. Ah, fifty-five. Homer Simpson said it best: “Sure, it will save some lives, but millions will be late.” My 1981 Yamaha SR500 motorcycle still sports the speedometer style of the era: “55” is highlighted in red, and the thing only reads to 85, despite the machine being capable of much more. That was the trend of the day.
Will we be returning to those lethargic drives of yesteryear? If we do, I hope we do it right this time. Sure, fifty-five saved fuel out on the open road, but we don’t drive on the open road all the time. What about the lesser roads? What about around town? If we do go back to a reduced speed limit (and I do believe we will eventually), I suggest we make a sweep of it; that is, yes, lower the national rural speed limit to fifty-five, but then get in there and finish the job: Lower every road’s speed limit by at least five miles an hour. If you’re going to save, by golly, then save.
It will be interesting to see if we do go back to the lowered speed limit. Right now, the political timing is off. That’s not something you do unless you absolutely have to — if you want to be re-elected. For the U.S. to drop its speed limits again, there will have to be a crisis worthy of the effort again. In the 70’s, it was the Arab Oil Embargo. And now? Will peak oil, or a sudden cutoff of our oil supplies for whatever the reason be enough to get us to slow down? I see no way that Americans would accept it simply because it made good sense. We have to have a pressing reason to make sense. Hopefully with the usual attached media circus.
Lake Avenue runs north-south along the west side of our house. It gets about 4,000 cars a day, and it seems like most of them are traveling well in excess of the road’s 30 mph speed limit. Mister President, if you read this, you can start right there with that lowered speed limit thing. Any time. Please.
I can drive fifty-five.
“Fifty-five”.
Do you remember? Are you old enough to recall? It was the 1970s, an era of disco, big hair and Jimmy Carter, the peanut farmer what done good despite his brother Billy. To conserve energy, to conserve oil, the national speed limit was dropped to fifty-five. States that did not comply faced losing federal highways funds. So we all drove fifty-five. Or at least we pretended to when anyone was looking.
I remember driving the ninety miles or so out to Disney World under the new speed limit. Over sixty miles of the trip is done on I-4; a road where, no matter how fast you go, someone will pass you. Taken at fifty-five, the ride was leisurely and bucolic. Very relaxing. I have to say that even then, as young and wild and free as I was, I did enjoy the laid back pace of fifty-five. I was also driving a ’72 VW Bug, but it was capable of going faster. Ah, fifty-five. Homer Simpson said it best: “Sure, it will save some lives, but millions will be late.” My 1981 Yamaha SR500 motorcycle still sports the speedometer style of the era: “55” is highlighted in red, and the thing only reads to 85, despite the machine being capable of much more. That was the trend of the day.
Will we be returning to those lethargic drives of yesteryear? If we do, I hope we do it right this time. Sure, fifty-five saved fuel out on the open road, but we don’t drive on the open road all the time. What about the lesser roads? What about around town? If we do go back to a reduced speed limit (and I do believe we will eventually), I suggest we make a sweep of it; that is, yes, lower the national rural speed limit to fifty-five, but then get in there and finish the job: Lower every road’s speed limit by at least five miles an hour. If you’re going to save, by golly, then save.
It will be interesting to see if we do go back to the lowered speed limit. Right now, the political timing is off. That’s not something you do unless you absolutely have to — if you want to be re-elected. For the U.S. to drop its speed limits again, there will have to be a crisis worthy of the effort again. In the 70’s, it was the Arab Oil Embargo. And now? Will peak oil, or a sudden cutoff of our oil supplies for whatever the reason be enough to get us to slow down? I see no way that Americans would accept it simply because it made good sense. We have to have a pressing reason to make sense. Hopefully with the usual attached media circus.
Lake Avenue runs north-south along the west side of our house. It gets about 4,000 cars a day, and it seems like most of them are traveling well in excess of the road’s 30 mph speed limit. Mister President, if you read this, you can start right there with that lowered speed limit thing. Any time. Please.
I can drive fifty-five.
Friday, June 3, 2011
Peak Oil or Peak Oil Production?
M. King Hubbert had it easy. He was proven right in just 15 years. As a geologist for Shell Oil, Hubbert predicted in the mid-1950’s that US lower-48 oil production would peak right around 1970. And he was right. Maybe not overly popular, but right. Now here we all are, trying to figure out when global oil production will (or did) peak. It’s a much tougher job. Like I said, Hubbert had it easy.
I often equate peak oil, and the crash that is predicted to follow, as being rather like a glacier that is very slowly crawling toward a small Alpine village. The glacier is moving down the mountain one meter a year. The village isn’t moving at all. So it’ll get there, it’ll just take time. Be patient. The glacier is still moving.
When people first read about peak oil, they get all excited and panicky, and then they wonder why everyone else isn’t all excited and panicky. Yeah, well, it’s not like that glacier has picked up any speed. And it never helps when there’s been a long history of mis-predictions when it comes to peak oil. Unlike predicting the peak of US oil production, there are simply too many variables when it comes to predicting the peak of global oil. And too many lies.
It’s also too easy to look at the price of oil and see that as an indication of supply - and of the peak. If the price of oil drops, too many people see that as proof that peak oil is still far in our future. I see low oil prices as a factor that may hasten the peak as well as the fall predicted to follow that peak. But the price of oil is a lousy indicator of overall supply.
If the price of oil drops, oil products (like gasoline) get more affordable. People drive more, use more gasoline, and save less oil for later. As the price of oil drops, the incentive to search for more oil drops, as does the urgency to develop alternatives to that oil. It just ain’t worth it while oil is cheap, and it’s tough to do when it’s expensive.
In a perfect world, we would not be watching the price of oil at all, but we would have access to accurate global oil production data on a timely basis. In a perfect world, we would be able to monitor the world-wide flow of oil, to track the ebb and flow, and we would be able to see obvious trends in the supply of that oil all over the globe. In a perfect world, Snooki would not be a household name, entertainment sensation and media darling. Alas, we do not live in a perfect world.
And when the wind blows down off that mountain, the glacier chills the town. It’s that close.
I often equate peak oil, and the crash that is predicted to follow, as being rather like a glacier that is very slowly crawling toward a small Alpine village. The glacier is moving down the mountain one meter a year. The village isn’t moving at all. So it’ll get there, it’ll just take time. Be patient. The glacier is still moving.
When people first read about peak oil, they get all excited and panicky, and then they wonder why everyone else isn’t all excited and panicky. Yeah, well, it’s not like that glacier has picked up any speed. And it never helps when there’s been a long history of mis-predictions when it comes to peak oil. Unlike predicting the peak of US oil production, there are simply too many variables when it comes to predicting the peak of global oil. And too many lies.
It’s also too easy to look at the price of oil and see that as an indication of supply - and of the peak. If the price of oil drops, too many people see that as proof that peak oil is still far in our future. I see low oil prices as a factor that may hasten the peak as well as the fall predicted to follow that peak. But the price of oil is a lousy indicator of overall supply.
If the price of oil drops, oil products (like gasoline) get more affordable. People drive more, use more gasoline, and save less oil for later. As the price of oil drops, the incentive to search for more oil drops, as does the urgency to develop alternatives to that oil. It just ain’t worth it while oil is cheap, and it’s tough to do when it’s expensive.
In a perfect world, we would not be watching the price of oil at all, but we would have access to accurate global oil production data on a timely basis. In a perfect world, we would be able to monitor the world-wide flow of oil, to track the ebb and flow, and we would be able to see obvious trends in the supply of that oil all over the globe. In a perfect world, Snooki would not be a household name, entertainment sensation and media darling. Alas, we do not live in a perfect world.
And when the wind blows down off that mountain, the glacier chills the town. It’s that close.
Thursday, May 5, 2011
Kill your car?!
Well, maybe not quite yet. ABC Radio National host Robyn Williams posed the question the other day: “(Is this) the beginning of the end for cars?” Good question, Robyn. With gas prices going for all-time highs here in the U.S. this summer, I suspect more and more people might be waking up and taking a much harder look at that big hulking hunk of steel in their garage. But are the car’s days truly numbered?
Right around the turn of the the last century (1900), the automobile was still an experimental rich man’s toy. (And yeah, a toy for experimental rich men.) They were expensive and weird and uncommon until after World War One, and before that, seeing one was An Event. By the time we got through World War Two, the automobile was as much a part of the American Scene as Americans themselves. We became, in every way, a Car Culture. And we still are. But will that - could that - come to an end? Maybe later.
With the subject of this blog and my book being peak oil, we have to consider the possibility. Well, I do. You can go watch Hamster Dance again if you want. (I love those little fuzzballs!) Ok, focus… cars… oil. Oh, yeah. So here’s the deal: Yes, the car is in a tough spot right now. Gas is pricey, and quite likely to get more so, and most unlikely to get cheap any time soon. Like, ever again. I’ve long said that the private automobile is not the highest, best use for oil, and I still know that to be true. But there are far worse things we do with oil. There are definitely a few other things that should fall by the wayside first.
Let’s start with the entire commercial airline industry. If the average airliner holds 200 passengers, how many of them really had to make that trip by plane? How many of them really had to get there that fast? I’m guessing pretty much none of them. The airline industry is this coal mine’s canary when it comes to oil. They will be about the first big industry to die. If you hold any airline stock, last year would be a good time to sell it.
Then there’s the cruise industry. At least the airlines go some place. Cruise ships just go out and come back. Sure, they’re fun and exotic and fattening, a great combination, but geez, Louise - look at all the oil going out that smokestack! How long can they keep that up? And wouldn’t a sailing ship make more sense? (And be way cooler?) Yo-ho.
When it comes to just going out and back, private aircraft are often little more than oil-burning ego trips. Literally. More often than not, a private plane takes off and lands at the same airport. They go up, they fly around for a bit, they come back, and they didn’t do a darned thing but burn fuel the whole time. Yeah, that was a great use of oil. Go team.
When I moved to Florida in 1969, the causeways were lined with Hobie Cat sailboats. They were (and still are) the very definition of cool on water to me. Hobie Adler is a genius, and you can tell him I said so if you see him. The thing is, those cats take some skill to sail. Done right, they are fast and a thing of beauty in motion. Done wrong, and they are upside down, (but easily righted). You don’t see too many Hobie Cats out there these days, and I honestly believe that is our loss.
Now it’s all about jet skis, and they suck. Well, they both suck and blow. They suck down oil and gas, and they blow out nasty fumes. And they go nowhere. Where the folks with the Hobies would get out there and go places, the jet skis mostly do circles about 100 yards offshore and that’s it. Whadda waste. I missed seeing the colorful sails and the flying hulls. But it gets worse.
Leaf blowers. There, I said it. The absolute worst possible use for our precious remaining oil resources are the legions of idiotic, noisy gas-powered leaf blowers that rack and ruin the gentle ambiance of every suburban neighborhood every freaking weekend. And I don’t just say that because I like to take afternoon naps. (Well, ok, I sort of do.) Still, leaf blowers are an insane waste of energy. They do nothing; they just blow stuff around. Stuff you should maybe have raked up instead. Duh. I will be so glad when they are gone. Party at my place. Seriously.
Ah, but the car? (Remember? The car?) Well, there’s a good chance all of this other stuff will fall by the wayside long before you see your last car drive by. What began as a rich man’s toy more than a hundred years ago, will go back to being a rich man’s toy in the next hundred years. The automobile’s general, everyday use will drop, and people will adapt and find other ways to get around - or stay home - but the car will be with us, in some fashion, for quite some time, I suspect. And I’m ok with that.
That means I might still, some day, own an Avanti. Cool.
Right around the turn of the the last century (1900), the automobile was still an experimental rich man’s toy. (And yeah, a toy for experimental rich men.) They were expensive and weird and uncommon until after World War One, and before that, seeing one was An Event. By the time we got through World War Two, the automobile was as much a part of the American Scene as Americans themselves. We became, in every way, a Car Culture. And we still are. But will that - could that - come to an end? Maybe later.
With the subject of this blog and my book being peak oil, we have to consider the possibility. Well, I do. You can go watch Hamster Dance again if you want. (I love those little fuzzballs!) Ok, focus… cars… oil. Oh, yeah. So here’s the deal: Yes, the car is in a tough spot right now. Gas is pricey, and quite likely to get more so, and most unlikely to get cheap any time soon. Like, ever again. I’ve long said that the private automobile is not the highest, best use for oil, and I still know that to be true. But there are far worse things we do with oil. There are definitely a few other things that should fall by the wayside first.
Let’s start with the entire commercial airline industry. If the average airliner holds 200 passengers, how many of them really had to make that trip by plane? How many of them really had to get there that fast? I’m guessing pretty much none of them. The airline industry is this coal mine’s canary when it comes to oil. They will be about the first big industry to die. If you hold any airline stock, last year would be a good time to sell it.
Then there’s the cruise industry. At least the airlines go some place. Cruise ships just go out and come back. Sure, they’re fun and exotic and fattening, a great combination, but geez, Louise - look at all the oil going out that smokestack! How long can they keep that up? And wouldn’t a sailing ship make more sense? (And be way cooler?) Yo-ho.
When it comes to just going out and back, private aircraft are often little more than oil-burning ego trips. Literally. More often than not, a private plane takes off and lands at the same airport. They go up, they fly around for a bit, they come back, and they didn’t do a darned thing but burn fuel the whole time. Yeah, that was a great use of oil. Go team.
When I moved to Florida in 1969, the causeways were lined with Hobie Cat sailboats. They were (and still are) the very definition of cool on water to me. Hobie Adler is a genius, and you can tell him I said so if you see him. The thing is, those cats take some skill to sail. Done right, they are fast and a thing of beauty in motion. Done wrong, and they are upside down, (but easily righted). You don’t see too many Hobie Cats out there these days, and I honestly believe that is our loss.
Now it’s all about jet skis, and they suck. Well, they both suck and blow. They suck down oil and gas, and they blow out nasty fumes. And they go nowhere. Where the folks with the Hobies would get out there and go places, the jet skis mostly do circles about 100 yards offshore and that’s it. Whadda waste. I missed seeing the colorful sails and the flying hulls. But it gets worse.
Leaf blowers. There, I said it. The absolute worst possible use for our precious remaining oil resources are the legions of idiotic, noisy gas-powered leaf blowers that rack and ruin the gentle ambiance of every suburban neighborhood every freaking weekend. And I don’t just say that because I like to take afternoon naps. (Well, ok, I sort of do.) Still, leaf blowers are an insane waste of energy. They do nothing; they just blow stuff around. Stuff you should maybe have raked up instead. Duh. I will be so glad when they are gone. Party at my place. Seriously.
Ah, but the car? (Remember? The car?) Well, there’s a good chance all of this other stuff will fall by the wayside long before you see your last car drive by. What began as a rich man’s toy more than a hundred years ago, will go back to being a rich man’s toy in the next hundred years. The automobile’s general, everyday use will drop, and people will adapt and find other ways to get around - or stay home - but the car will be with us, in some fashion, for quite some time, I suspect. And I’m ok with that.
That means I might still, some day, own an Avanti. Cool.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)