Oil embargo on the horizon?

Could it be déjà vu all over again? It very well could. The big deal right now in the United Nations is the idea of recognizing Palestine as a new member of the UN. This is fast becoming a Big Deal, and it could become a big deal gone bad if the UN votes to admit them and the US vetoes that vote. (Somehow, the US apparently has that power.) The brown and squishy would hit the revolving blades right quick like after that. Be ready to duck.

One entirely possible scenario would be a repeat of the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973/74. For those of you a bit foggy on your 70s history (and honestly, who isn’t?), Saudi Arabia, in the fall of 1973, took exception to the US and western Europe backing Israel and stopped shipping oil to one and all. That they withheld five percent of the world’s available oil resulted in a quadrupling of the price of oil. Geez-o-Pete, did we have fun.

If you read my short story, “60 Days Next Year”, posted on the New Colonist web site, much of what I put in that story actually happened all over the US in the winter of 1973/74 as we all scrambled to keep on keeping on. It got ugly blindingly fast. And it could again. All we have to do is be a booger when the time comes.

Twenty-eight years ago, America went to voluntary gas rationing. We used an even/odd system, based on your license plate’s last digit. If your plate ended in an even number, or A through M, you got to buy gas on an even numbered day. If your plate ended in an odd number or N through Z, you bought gas on an odd numbered day. It was a simple system, and it drove us nuts. Sure, you could buy gas every other day, but then again, you also couldn’t buy gas every other day. We went crazy.

People were stealing plates so they’d have one of each. Gas stations were limiting how much you could buy, and if you weren’t a regular customer, you couldn’t buy from them at all. Lines for gas stretched around the block. People followed the gas tanker trucks to see where they were going. It was loopy. And we could go right back to that if we press our luck here real soon.

I am not going to get into a political discussion here about whether or not I think the UN should admit Palestine. I’m pretty sure they’ve admitted worse. I am, and will freely admit to being, a big fan of Israel. Still, I think the US can both back Israel and allow Palestine to be a part of one of the most ineffective organizations on earth. Why not? What does misery love?

But do keep an eye on this one, as a veto by the US will most definitely kick US/Arab relations right in the ol’ camel saddle.

Keep your bike tires pumped.  

Conservation: the next big thing!

From time to time, when people talk about the oil crisis we face, and the need for a viable alternative energy resource, the idea is put forth that all we have to do is go at it as we did putting a man on the moon. We did that in less than a decade, so why not this?

Here’s why not: There aren’t too many blank spots left on the periodic table of the elements. We’ve found all the obvious stuff here on earth, and these days, if some scientist does manage to find something new to add, it’s invariably something like “garbanzobeanium” and it’s really rare. There’s simply nothing left to discover around here that will do all for us that oil has done for us. But that doesn’t mean we can’t all work together to solve the problem. There is a solution, you just won’t like it. Oh, and the US space program is pretty much wrapped up, too. Time to move on.

I must have been out the day “conservation” became a dirty word in America. It became un-American, and maybe just a little bit pink-o. Too bad, ‘cause that’s what’s gonna save us. The big “Moon Landing/Manhattan Project” response to the oil crisis is for us to go after conservation like there’s no tomorrow. Because if we don’t, there isn’t.

Since we do so very little conservation here in America right now, this is a wide open field of possibilities. We are such energy pigs. Where to begin? At home, we need to set goals for energy and resource consumption. What if we said everyone had to limit their home energy use to 5 kwh a day and 750 gallons of water a month, per person? First off, you’d have to figure out how much you are using now to see how little that is. But could you do it? Could you use that little? That ain’t much, but it’s also what the Lovely JoAnn and I use together in our house, so it can be done. I dare you to even take the time to figure out what you use at home, either per person or in total. You will be amazed.

We drive about 10,000 miles a year, and yes, we could reduce that, if and when we have to. We are not extravagant drivers, and again, that figure is for both of us together - about 5,000 miles per person per year. Put like that, it ain’t so bad. But what about you? There’s no doubt that the oil crisis will hit our driving habits hard - and first. How much could you conserve there? Time to start looking.

Of course, for any national conservation effort to work, the public has to be given a very good reason to make the sacrifice. It has to be a sort of Patriotic War Effort thing, and there are far too few people left around here who remember the last one. Still, we did it then, and we can do it again - if we are shown that we have to. I’ve always said that Americans are lousy about planning ahead, but great when it comes to responding to a crisis. And this will be all that.

So maybe now’s the time to buck the trend and look at your life in terms of future conservation potential. How much could you save, how much less would you need to use, if you absolutely had to? Eventually you will, National Conservation Effort or not. Conservation needs to be our next Big Thing.

Remember "Fifty-Five Saves Lives"?

That three-syllable word, those three little syllables, are being whispered again in the hallways and conference rooms in Washington, D. C. They are being mentioned in hushed tones with a knowing nod, a wink and a finger aside the nose. They are thinking about it out loud, but you haven’t heard them say them yet. You will. Just three little syllables:

“Fifty-five”.

Do you remember? Are you old enough to recall? It was the 1970s, an era of disco, big hair and Jimmy Carter, the peanut farmer what done good despite his brother Billy. To conserve energy, to conserve oil, the national speed limit was dropped to fifty-five. States that did not comply faced losing federal highways funds. So we all drove fifty-five. Or at least we pretended to when anyone was looking.

I remember driving the ninety miles or so out to Disney World under the new speed limit. Over sixty miles of the trip is done on I-4; a road where, no matter how fast you go, someone will pass you. Taken at fifty-five, the ride was leisurely and bucolic. Very relaxing. I have to say that even then, as young and wild and free as I was, I did enjoy the laid back pace of fifty-five. I was also driving a ’72 VW Bug, but it was capable of going faster. Ah, fifty-five. Homer Simpson said it best: “Sure, it will save some lives, but millions will be late.” My 1981 Yamaha SR500 motorcycle still sports the speedometer style of the era: “55” is highlighted in red, and the thing only reads to 85, despite the machine being capable of much more. That was the trend of the day.

Will we be returning to those lethargic drives of yesteryear? If we do, I hope we do it right this time. Sure, fifty-five saved fuel out on the open road, but we don’t drive on the open road all the time. What about the lesser roads? What about around town? If we do go back to a reduced speed limit (and I do believe we will eventually), I suggest we make a sweep of it; that is, yes, lower the national rural speed limit to fifty-five, but then get in there and finish the job: Lower every road’s speed limit by at least five miles an hour. If you’re going to save, by golly, then save.

It will be interesting to see if we do go back to the lowered speed limit. Right now, the political timing is off. That’s not something you do unless you absolutely have to — if you want to be re-elected. For the U.S. to drop its speed limits again, there will have to be a crisis worthy of the effort again. In the 70’s, it was the Arab Oil Embargo. And now? Will peak oil, or a sudden cutoff of our oil supplies for whatever the reason be enough to get us to slow down? I see no way that Americans would accept it simply because it made good sense. We have to have a pressing reason to make sense. Hopefully with the usual attached media circus.

Lake Avenue runs north-south along the west side of our house. It gets about 4,000 cars a day, and it seems like most of them are traveling well in excess of the road’s 30 mph speed limit. Mister President, if you read this, you can start right there with that lowered speed limit thing. Any time. Please.

I can drive fifty-five.

Peak Oil or Peak Oil Production?

M. King Hubbert had it easy. He was proven right in just 15 years. As a geologist for Shell Oil, Hubbert predicted in the mid-1950’s that US lower-48 oil production would peak right around 1970. And he was right. Maybe not overly popular, but right. Now here we all are, trying to figure out when global oil production will (or did) peak. It’s a much tougher job. Like I said, Hubbert had it easy.

I often equate peak oil, and the crash that is predicted to follow, as being rather like a glacier that is very slowly crawling toward a small Alpine village. The glacier is moving down the mountain one meter a year. The village isn’t moving at all. So it’ll get there, it’ll just take time. Be patient. The glacier is still moving.

When people first read about peak oil, they get all excited and panicky, and then they wonder why everyone else isn’t all excited and panicky. Yeah, well, it’s not like that glacier has picked up any speed. And it never helps when there’s been a long history of mis-predictions when it comes to peak oil. Unlike predicting the peak of US oil production, there are simply too many variables when it comes to predicting the peak of global oil. And too many lies.

It’s also too easy to look at the price of oil and see that as an indication of supply - and of the peak. If the price of oil drops, too many people see that as proof that peak oil is still far in our future. I see low oil prices as a factor that may hasten the peak as well as the fall predicted to follow that peak. But the price of oil is a lousy indicator of overall supply.

If the price of oil drops, oil products (like gasoline) get more affordable. People drive more, use more gasoline, and save less oil for later. As the price of oil drops, the incentive to search for more oil drops, as does the urgency to develop alternatives to that oil. It just ain’t worth it while oil is cheap, and it’s tough to do when it’s expensive.

In a perfect world, we would not be watching the price of oil at all, but we would have access to accurate global oil production data on a timely basis. In a perfect world, we would be able to monitor the world-wide flow of oil, to track the ebb and flow, and we would be able to see obvious trends in the supply of that oil all over the globe. In a perfect world, Snooki would not be a household name, entertainment sensation and media darling. Alas, we do not live in a perfect world.

And when the wind blows down off that mountain, the glacier chills the town. It’s that close.

Kill your car?!

Well, maybe not quite yet. ABC Radio National host Robyn Williams posed the question the other day: “(Is this) the beginning of the end for cars?” Good question, Robyn. With gas prices going for all-time highs here in the U.S. this summer, I suspect more and more people might be waking up and taking a much harder look at that big hulking hunk of steel in their garage. But are the car’s days truly numbered?

Right around the turn of the the last century (1900), the automobile was still an experimental rich man’s toy. (And yeah, a toy for experimental rich men.) They were expensive and weird and uncommon until after World War One, and before that, seeing one was An Event. By the time we got through World War Two, the automobile was as much a part of the American Scene as Americans themselves. We became, in every way, a Car Culture. And we still are. But will that - could that - come to an end? Maybe later.

With the subject of this blog and my book being peak oil, we have to consider the possibility. Well, I do. You can go watch Hamster Dance again if you want. (I love those little fuzzballs!) Ok, focus… cars… oil. Oh, yeah. So here’s the deal: Yes, the car is in a tough spot right now. Gas is pricey, and quite likely to get more so, and most unlikely to get cheap any time soon. Like, ever again. I’ve long said that the private automobile is not the highest, best use for oil, and I still know that to be true. But there are far worse things we do with oil. There are definitely a few other things that should fall by the wayside first.

Let’s start with the entire commercial airline industry. If the average airliner holds 200 passengers, how many of them really had to make that trip by plane? How many of them really had to get there that fast? I’m guessing pretty much none of them. The airline industry is this coal mine’s canary when it comes to oil. They will be about the first big industry to die. If you hold any airline stock, last year would be a good time to sell it.

Then there’s the cruise industry. At least the airlines go some place. Cruise ships just go out and come back. Sure, they’re fun and exotic and fattening, a great combination, but geez, Louise - look at all the oil going out that smokestack! How long can they keep that up? And wouldn’t a sailing ship make more sense? (And be way cooler?) Yo-ho.

When it comes to just going out and back, private aircraft are often little more than oil-burning ego trips. Literally. More often than not, a private plane takes off and lands at the same airport. They go up, they fly around for a bit, they come back, and they didn’t do a darned thing but burn fuel the whole time. Yeah, that was a great use of oil. Go team.

When I moved to Florida in 1969, the causeways were lined with Hobie Cat sailboats. They were (and still are) the very definition of cool on water to me. Hobie Adler is a genius, and you can tell him I said so if you see him. The thing is, those cats take some skill to sail. Done right, they are fast and a thing of beauty in motion. Done wrong, and they are upside down, (but easily righted). You don’t see too many Hobie Cats out there these days, and I honestly believe that is our loss.

Now it’s all about jet skis, and they suck. Well, they both suck and blow. They suck down oil and gas, and they blow out nasty fumes. And they go nowhere. Where the folks with the Hobies would get out there and go places, the jet skis mostly do circles about 100 yards offshore and that’s it. Whadda waste. I missed seeing the colorful sails and the flying hulls. But it gets worse.

Leaf blowers. There, I said it. The absolute worst possible use for our precious remaining oil resources are the legions of idiotic, noisy gas-powered leaf blowers that rack and ruin the gentle ambiance of every suburban neighborhood every freaking weekend. And I don’t just say that because I like to take afternoon naps. (Well, ok, I sort of do.) Still, leaf blowers are an insane waste of energy. They do nothing; they just blow stuff around. Stuff you should maybe have raked up instead. Duh. I will be so glad when they are gone. Party at my place. Seriously.

Ah, but the car? (Remember? The car?) Well, there’s a good chance all of this other stuff will fall by the wayside long before you see your last car drive by. What began as a rich man’s toy more than a hundred years ago, will go back to being a rich man’s toy in the next hundred years. The automobile’s general, everyday use will drop, and people will adapt and find other ways to get around - or stay home - but the car will be with us, in some fashion, for quite some time, I suspect. And I’m ok with that.

That means I might still, some day, own an Avanti. Cool.

Clean and Green Nuclear Energy ?!

“Better to light a candle than curse the radiation.”
— Me, about 30 years ago.

I haven’t been a fan of nuclear power for a very long time, but it’s still kind of obvious that my opinion on the matter don’t count for squat. I still think I’m right, though. Nuclear anything just seems like a really bad idea, and I’d like to think I’m on the right side of the fence on this one, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to win the argument. I’m reading too many letters and editorials in the newspaper these days about how nuclear power is still the right choice, about how it’s still “clean and green”. WHAT? Have you no shame? Apparently not if you’re trying to sell nuclear power. Your soul gets dumped on Craigslist pretty quickly when you go that route.

And let me say this right here: I really thought the Japanese knew better. I honestly thought they were all about the long game, about short-term sacrifice for the long-term good. I remember when the Japanese people would vigorously protest the arrival of any U.S. nuclear powered (or nuclear armed) ship that might consider stopping by. Not no more. I am disappointed. I thought they were better than this. I know they are better than this.

As we watch the world’s supply of oil dwindle, nuclear power is going to be all shined up and prettied up and offered as a fine solution to less oil and natural gas in the years ahead. Let’s ignore, for the moment, the fact that nuclear power is based on a natural non-renewable energy resource, just like oil and natural gas; and that it, too, will be depleted over time. That short term view should not be our first concern, or our primary fear.

The first order of business with nuclear power is how overwhelmingly deadly it is, and how very long it remains deadly, long after it is no longer useful as a power source. We are talking hundreds of thousands of years here. Longer than all human recorded history. So long, I’m not even going to make a joke about how long that is. We have absolutely no track record for taking care of anything on that time frame. None. And yet we are expected to believe that we can process this stuff, use it and then store it — for how long? No. We can’t. If for no other reason than no human language has ever lasted that long. In one hundred thousand years, our warning signs will be unreadable. If there’s anyone left to read them.

I have no idea how we are going to stop the coming enthusiasm for nuclear power. I honestly do not believe that the problems in Japan right now will have a long-term negative effect on the future of nuclear power. We, as a species, have notoriously short memories. And apparently writing stuff down doesn’t help.

Good luck, Japan. Good luck, all of us.

A World With Less Oil: Are you prepared?

Sometimes, if I’m paying attention, I get to see small glimpses of our future. They are always fleeting and soon gone, but I see them, sometimes at the outer edge of my vision. And maybe that’s how the future arrives: in bits and pieces, a little at a time, starting out around the edges.

I open the garage door and walk outside on a Sunday morning around sun-up. No traffic on Lake Avenue. No planes in the sky. Not a single unnatural noise. It is, for just a very short time before the world of man wakes up, a silent world without oil. Very nice.

The pump nozzles are bagged - the universal sign of “No Gas”. There are a dozen different reasons why that may be, but there it is: A gasless gas station, and maybe for a day or so, a glimpse of our future. Contrary to popular belief, I do not smile at this.

I stop to watch a group of cyclists pass me headed south to the park. They are not bike racers, just everyday people on everyday bikes, out for a ride. I like that. I expect to see more of that in the future. I do see more people riding with shopping bags these days, both empty and full, doing their errands a la velo. I like that a lot.

There in the grocery store - that fellow with bands around his pant cuffs, wearing fingerless cycling gloves and a bike helmet, with a backpack for the groceries. Oh, wait - that’s me. Well, it’s still a glimpse of the future for all of us, if we’re lucky.

I’ve been pleasantly surprised that my little oil book, Peak of the Devil, hasn’t caught more flack than it has for being an overly-optimistic (and overly simplistic) look at what must surely be our very bleak future. I tried to make it as ungrim as I could, considering how very grim it may turn out to be. And I do like the idea of us maybe being able to get by on much less than we have now - and maybe our lives will be better for it. But we need to start now.

We each need to understand what it is that we do that we won’t be doing later. That conspicuous consumption brought on by presumptive entitlement (didn’t know I knew the big words, did ya?) is going to hang like a rotting albatross around the necks of people too stubborn to adapt. You need to know this: It’s going to change. Be a good scout. Be prepared. Be prepared before you have to be prepared.

This past weekend, I hosted a Tweed Ride for my 60th Birthday. We rode our vintage English three-speeds out to the Safety Harbor Spa for tea and crumpets. Pinkies out. I had knickers made for the occasion. I wore a bow tie and a jaunty cap. And if this humble little ride is a glimpse of what is to come, of a world with less oil, then our future might not be quite so unpleasant as many, myself included, would have you believe. Next week we'll do it again in St. Pete.

Keep your bike tires pumped.

Democracy and Oil: All Eyes on Libya

So finally, after I thought it was too late, the good guys got together and decided maybe they wouldn’t let Mummar Q. just go right ahead and kill everyone in Libya anyway. Thanks, guys - but why did it take you so long??? Geesh.

Okay, so now Libya is more of a police action. Not a war, exactly. It was a civil war, but now some other countries have decided to help keep the rebels from being totally decimated, so what have we got here? A skirmish? A hot bed? Whatever it is, it ain’t Viet Nam in a cat box. It will be over and done and soon. I hope. All concerned have promised air support, but not boots on the ground. Again: I hope.

Right now, 7 p.m. Sunday night, March 20, 2010, oil is at $102.87. That’s about where it’s been for awhile, dancing all around the $100 mark for weeks. I guess if it goes really badly in Libya we might see the price of oil climb, but then again, if the future of Libya involves the development of a stable democracy, that might not be so bad for the price of oil in the long run. And I’m all for that.

Contrary to popular opinion, I am not rooting for the end of the world. I don’t want to see the price of oil go through the roof. I drive a pickup truck. A big one. I don’t mow my yard with a goat. I’m currently paying $3.51 a gallon for gas, and that’s quite high enough, thank you very much.

Now here’s hoping Libya gets new management, and the new guys are smarter than the last guy. “Arab democracy” . . . man, there’s a new phrase. I like it. Could the Middle East be the new hotbed of democracy, with Egypt and Libya leading the way? Whooo-eeeee. I can’t wait to see what tomorrow brings.

Like I said: Here’s hoping.

Oil prices up, gas prices up - What can you do?

So here we have Libya and Saudi Arabia, two very different countries that both produce enough oil for each to export a fair amount, and both are in the news these days. Libya, the lesser of the two when it comes to oil production, has been run for some 40 years by a raving lunatic with serious fashion (and reality) issues. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is run by a very large royal family that I’d swear all look exactly alike.

Libya is in the midst of a rebellion/civil war these days that has caused the price of oil to rise. Libya is beset by what is termed, in the oil game, “above ground factors” – that is to say, people. Personally, I’m all for rebellion in Libya. It’s high time they boosted ol’ Mummar right off the longest dock in Tripoli. Do NOT make us send in the Marines. Again. But above ground factors are just that: Stuff we cause – and can fix – ourselves.

The Saudis are up against a far more solid wall: Below ground factors. As their production falls, they might do everything they can and still they may not be able to maintain their current level of oil production in the years ahead, let alone increase production to make up for the shortfall in Libya, or anywhere else. They day they admit that publicly, if they ever do, will be a red-letter day for oil. And a bad day for the rest of us.

I saw a wonderful quote today about the price of gasoline. The writer said the price of gasoline is not set by what it cost to produce, but what it will cost to replace. Wow. Great quote there. So look for the price of gas to go up. Maybe a lot. A friend of mine that owns a gas station said today that he expects to see four-dollar gas by the end of March. And that’s a full two months before the traditional start of the North American Driving Season that starts on Memorial Day weekend and runs through Labor Day weekend. Will we see five-dollar gas across the US this year? My Magic 8 Ball says “OUTLOOK GOOD”.

So what are you going to do about it? Don’t bother with any sort of boycott or “gas out” you may hear about. They don’t work. Even if you don’t buy the gas, someone else will. It’s a global commodity. And please don’t go and protest the price of gas at your local gas station. It’s not their fault. Often, it’s not even their gas. They just sell it on consignment, and make very little, if anything on it.

Do you really want to protest the high price of gas? Then you’re going to have to get proactive and seriously radical. You’re going to have to think outside the box, break all the rules and answer to no one. You’re gonna have to be a loner, march to your own drum and make a statement.

You’re gonna have to ride a bicycle.

Peak Oil Faithful

Some time ago, someone commenting on one of my blogs here made the observation that believing in the theory of peak oil was, to many of the believers, rather like a religion. I thought it was an interesting thing to say, and it stuck with me. It sticks still. But is it a valid observation?

I am probably the last person on earth to try to define what is, or is not, a religion. Or maybe I’m the perfect person, as I am situated so far from the action. How do you even go about defining religion? It has beliefs, certainly, and these beliefs must be taken on faith. They are, by definition, unprovable. And my spell check is telling me that “unprovable” is not a real word, so I’m taking that on faith as well.

A religion must have a back story – a history of existence. There must be something to be said about it. Now here’s the kick in the pants: You can have a religion without a god. Buddhism and Taoism, both fine, great and honorable religions of Very Long Standing, do not seem to address the idea of, let’s say, the whole shebang being slapped up by an old guy in a robe with a long white beard who looks a lot like Robert Crumb’s Mister Natural. (And who, by the way, recently put out a stunning illustrated Book of Genesis – I kid you not.) Ah, but we are drifting far afield. (And there goes that cursed spell check again. So now “afield” is not a word? Geesh.) (Oh, and “Geesh, too.) Focus, man, focus! Is peak oil a religion?

Well, let’s see: It has its core belief that oil production peaks, and then declines. Sort of like death after life. OK, check that one off the list. How about a back story? Got it covered: Marion King Hubbert came up with the theory over fifty years ago, and it has played out in field after field, so we have both back story and miracles all lined up. And we got us a jen-you-wine prophet in Hubbert his bad self. He’s even dead, as most good prophets tend to be.

And you have to take it on faith. You have to believe that Hubbert was right, and you have to have faith that yes, some day, oil will peak and then decline, never to rise again. Sorry, Lazarus. Not this time. While many detractors point to the receding horizon of the actual claimed event of peak oil as proof that it is a false religion, we are still working in a very short time frame as religions go. Months and years, instead of centuries. You gotta learn to have a little patience. All things come to those who wait. Or go away, if you are a peak oiler.

Now here’s the funny thing: If peak oil is a religion, if you’re going to call it that, then you also have to call the Cornucopians, who don’t believe we will see a peak to oil production, a religion as well. (They even have a sort of religiousy name.) The Cornos (just to give my spell check another spit-spewing spasms), take it on faith that big oil and technology will save us all, whether you are believer or not. (At least they aren’t picky about who they save.) They proudly point to the oil industry’s history of always being able to find more oil, and always being able to deliver the goods. So far. Okay, you can’t argue track record. You can’t buck history. But history ain’t the future, Spanky.

The guy that originally brought up this whole “peak oil as a religion” thing did so to make the point that peak oilers were a rather intolerant lot, and not prone to hear the other guys’ side of the story. They don’t care much for dissension in their ranks, but then again, that can be said of just about any group of humans on earth, religious or not. No one likes to have to argue their beliefs. We each believe what we believe, and my beliefs are not yours. Yours are not mine. And that’s ok. It all comes down to Russell’s Teapot versus The Flying Spaghetti Monster: Just because you can’t prove me wrong doesn’t mean I’m right. Just because I can’t prove myself to be right doesn’t mean I’m wrong. Only time will judge both sides of the case and offer a ruling. Eventually. Maybe.

When it comes right down to it, both sides of this coin are taking it on faith. Both have to believe what they think is right. But no matter what they do believe, in the end, only one of them goes home a winner.

I think I’ll stick with Lao Tzu.

Planes, Trains and Automobiles - Peak Travel

Eric Morris, in his “Peak Travel?” article in the January 11, 2011 New York Times, has pointed out that we madcap, drive-crazy Americans are now actually driving less, and have been since 2005. From the end of WWII to about the year 2000, it was all about driving more and going further each year. These days, not so much. Now we go less. Is this a peak oil thing? Maybe sort of, but not exactly.

While it is true that we tend to drive less as gas gets more expensive, the massive tide of internet shopping has also served to cut down the annual miles driven. Oddly enough, Eric was only looking at miles driven. I would like to have seen some mention of miles flown, and of miles traveled by train. And I would have liked to have seen flying miles drop as rail miles rose - but I can’t say that is happening. I didn’t see it. But maybe we really are traveling less.

In the comments after Mr. Morris’s article, one poster (“Drill-Baby-Drill drill Team”) pointed out that the grand iconic classic of all road trips, the one where Joseph took Mary back home from Jerusalem to Bethlehem to comply with that pesky Roman census thing, was a trip of only eight miles. And my lovely wife points out that there is no mention in the Bible of a donkey being involved, making it rather likely that Mary walked.

The point to be made here is that at one time, a trip of eight miles was a very, very big deal, indeed. A trip of, quite literally, Biblical proportions. These days, it’s lunch. I figure I could walk eight miles in a little less than three hours, as I tend to saunter along at a blistering three-mph clip. Those same eight miles would take less than an hour on my bicycle, and about 15 minutes in the truck, depending on the lights. But what if we go back to bikes and donkeys and feet?

Considering the viability of mass transit in America, the foot-and-bike option seems likely as the oil gets scarce. Author James H. Kunstler (www.kunstler.com) has famously said America has a rail system that would be an embarrassment to Bulgaria — and he was being polite. We essentially have no passenger rail system to speak of for the vast bulk of America. You wanna get there? Then you wanna drive.

I live in Clearwater, Florida, right across the bay from Tampa and just north of St. Petersburg. Pinellas County, home to St. Petersburg, Clearwater, 22 other cities and almost one million people packed tightly into just 280 square miles, has no passenger rail service at all. No light rail, no Amtrak service, no Disney-inspired monorail, nothing. We have some buses, but even they don’t go to all corners of the county. There are two buses that go to Tampa, but only on weekdays. Oh, we do have a Greyhound Bus Station over on the other side of the mall. Maybe. I honestly haven’t thought to even look to see if it’s still there, now that I think about it. We are, after all a nation of drivers, even if we are driving less.

And what if we are driving less? That’s a good thing. I expect we’ll see more of that, or less, I guess. I’m hoping as we all drive less we’ll see more of what was right there all around us all along. We will live locally, and we will (finally) know where we live. We will become neighbors. I like that. Do you?

Meatspace redux

After my rant about the importance of Meatspace, I have to say that yes, I do spend a fair amount of time in that alternate universe that is Cyberspace. In years past, I have been a regular on a very small number of forums, my all time favorite being a sort of general discussion forum hosted by my good friend Mahatma Randy. His was something of an invitation-only cybergathering, and was quite the crowd of entertaining literates. I miss it still and think about it often.

With the melt-down of Matt Savinar’s “Life After The Oil Crash” (LATOC) forum, I was lucky enough to have been found and directed over to its predecessor, The Oil Age forum at www.theoilage.com. This new forum is home to many of my friends from the old LATOC forum, and as you know, it’s always good to be among friends. If you have an interest in peak oil (and the fact that you are here, reading this, would indicate that you do), I recommend that you have a look at The Oil Age forum. No, you don’t have to read the whole thing. I sure don’t. I try to keep an eye on the peak oil breaking news and the general discussion forums, just to keep up with what’s happening back in Meatspace with regard to global oil.

For my bicycling news, I trust my friend Jack Sweeney and all of the good folks over at www.bikecommuters.com. I like to stop by there and see what’s new and who’s doing what where on a bicycle these days. It’s not exactly a forum, but you can post comments at the end of each entry. (Kinda like here.) Whenever I need an attitude adjustment, and need to go to My Happy Place, I dial in www.3speedtour.com. Ahhhhhh….. Now that’s what I want my whole world to look like every day.

And, of course, the other place I am is here. Each of my more-or-less weekly blogs on this site has a comments section at the end, and with the help of my ever-vigilant publisher, I do try to jump in and comment where comment is needed. But wait, there’s more. . . .

If you need to, you can always email me. I'm at chip.haynes@yahoo.com and I try to answer my email every day, except on days that I don’t.

Baby, it's cold outside

Ok, so it’s cold here right now. I did not come down here for this. I live in west central Florida (Clearwater), and they’re talking about it being down in the thirties here for a couple of nights. Yeah, I know, compared to, say, Minnesota, this ain’t so bad. Balmy, even. By the end of the week, it will be back up in the 70s, so I’m not complaining, but still…

So what do you suppose will happen up north when natural gas and heating oil start to get too expensive, and then become unavailable in the coming years? How long would your house be inhabitable in the winter when the power goes off? These are not idle questions. Of the four seasons, there’s one that can kill you. What’s it like where you live in the winter? And is it worth the risk? It’s not like you’re going to get much of a warning on this, you know. (Well, other than me. Here. Now.)

In his book, The Adjustment, Charles MacArthur wrote of the disaster that befalls the New York metro area when the power grid fails totally in the middle of a February blizzard. It is a stark and sobering look at just how fast it can all go so very badly when the power goes off in deep winter — especially in a big city. A matter of hours. Maybe minutes. In his novel, Charles writes of an immediate and mass migration south, by any means necessary. Not everyone makes it. I think he got that part absolutely right as well. I do expect to see people moving to Florida in record numbers as the north (the Midwest and the northeast) becomes more difficult and less comfortable in the years ahead, all in the aftermath of peak oil and declining natural gas supplies. Lacking power and heat, I would expect Canada to be emptied out in fairly short order — and I wouldn’t blame them one bit. It gets cold up there, I hear.

Sometimes I wonder if a slow decline in energy resources is worse than a sudden crash. Slow declines tend to offer hope — it might not be that bad — we might turn it around — maybe it’s gonna be okay. With a fast crash, you know you’re pooched and you have to deal with it Right Now. Fast is a great motivator.

Until last winter, I said I never knew why anyone would live north of I-10. We had such a long, cold winter here last year, I’ve amended that to I-4. Another bad one and I’m dropping it down to Alligator Alley. And St. Thomas, in the USVI, is looking mighty good about now. Ah, but we will be warm and sunny again by the weekend here. All will be well. For now. For us.

If you live in the far north, or even north of I-10, you might want to take a very serious look around you. Three seasons a year, you’ve got a good thing going, but winter is not your friend. Please don’t mistake it for one. And always remember: The Sunshine State awaits!

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What about electric cars?

There’s been a lot of interest in electric cars lately, with the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt both about to hit the market. Too many people still see them as the answer to our dependency on oil, both foreign and domestic. Sadly, they are not the answer, and it’s tough to get people to understand that.

First, electricity is not an energy source. It is an energy carrier. That is, we have to generate electricity using another energy source — such as oil. Using oil to make electricity so we don’t use oil makes no sense at all. And yet, that’s exactly what people are lining up to do.

This next generation of electric cars (they’ve only been around a hundred years or so) still have a lot in common with their antique ancestors: they are expensive, heavy and have a limited range. Take a look at the Chevy Volt, if you can find one to look at. It will cost about forty thousand dollars and take up to ten hours at 110v to charge the batteries to go just 40 miles — about an hour’s drive on a ten hour charge.

The Nissan Leaf will go for over thirty thousand dollars and still takes eight hours to charge using an optional (recommended) 220v charging station you can have built into your home. Obviously, one does not buy an electric car to save money. No word yet on what replacement battery packs might cost for these cars when the time comes — and it will.

Power companies across America are both sweating bullets and jumping for joy. Sure, the extra income will help (and you’d better believe these things will make a serious bump in your monthly electric bill), but, in the words of the Associated Press’s Jonathan Fahey, “Plugged into a socket, an electric car can draw as much power as a small house. The surge in demand could knock out power to a home, or even a neighborhood.” Estimates on the cost of having a 220 volt charging station wired into your home go as high as $4,000 (for both the purchase of the charging station and the installation) over and above the price of the car, but not taking tax credits into consideration.

Electric cars are going to be the next Prius; that is, the next greenwash on wheels. People will buy them to look green, and still do nothing to curb their miles or their dependency on fossil fuels and private motor transport. They are not the answer.

To me, it makes more sense to buy a $10,000 subcompact and work harder to drive it less. Says the guy with the full-size pick up. Ah, well. It will be interesting to see how this next wave of electric cars are received by the motoring public.

And I just wish GM had worked harder to make the EV-1 their electric vehicle flagship. Now that was a cool electric car.

Peak oil and a new generation gap

I think we need to talk about the generation gap here for a minute. I say that after doing a couple of book signings and noticing a couple of things. At my first signing, the crowd was mostly older people – people over 40. The young guy in the crowd, maybe in his early thirties, was the one that commandeered the room to share with us the joys of T. Boone Pickins and how T. Boone was going to save us all with natural gas, so no worries.

A few days later, at a book store, I was accosted right off the bat by a twenty-something who offered me a major sneer for not having, on my person, irrefutable scientific evidence that the Alberta tar sands operation was bad for the environment. My fault for positioning myself at a table between him and the coffee bar. He was obviously inconvenienced by having to walk around me. My bad. Won’t happen again.

Nevertheless, I’m sensing a trend here: Older people (over 40, let’s say), do seem far more willing to accept and understand the idea of peak oil and the massive era of change that we are facing. Young people, not so much. But why? Even older people, baby boomers mostly, have lived their entire lives in the lap of luxurious oil. I know I have. Sure, we remember when the phone was bolted to the wall and you actually had to dial it. I, personally, remember when the TV only got three channels (if we were lucky) and they all went off at night. Can you imagine? Still, even then, we knew we had it made. We had a ’58 Pontiac Chieftain, for cryin’ out loud. So why can’t the younger generation see that we have a problem now? And why are the older among us more willing to accept the idea of peak oil and the coming change?

Maybe it’s the level, intensity and total intrusion of “modern life” on the younger among us. They have always had cell phones and techno-gadgets and it’s entirely possible that they have never even seen a manual transmission car. Televisions hard-wired for 500 channels 24/7 are the norm. Radio is beamed from satellites and the Internet is everywhere. The Chieftain didn’t even have seat belts. But Alvin Toffler was wrong.

Toffler wrote Future Shock, a book about how technology will overwhelm the people of the future. Nope, didn’t happen. Sorry, Al. We have willingly absorbed and embraced technology at a stunning rate. Yes, even me. I’m typing this on a laptop computer with wireless Internet capability that can, at the push of a button, connect me with the world. Sure didn’t see THAT coming back when I was in high school — but here it is, and I have a handle on it. No biggie. Maybe Toffler and I need to get together and write the sequel to his book: Retro Shock. That’s what’s coming. Are you ready?

Future technology is not going to trip us up, but the future loss of oil and natural gas will send us reeling. As our lifestyles go back in time to find a sort of low-energy stability, we will have to abandon much for what we have today — much of what we take for granted will have to be given up. All of the easy stuff. Our “anytime, anywhere” lives will have to be planned far in advance, to allow for the much lower levels of energy available. Even robot maids take power. You wait, kid, you’ll see. It’s going to be interesting to see how people (and which people) adapt to the changes brought on by peak oil in the years ahead. Young or old, no one gets a pass on this. Everyone is going to have to play.

The Real Problem with Peak Oil

The biggest problem with peak oil isn’t peak oil. It’s us. All of us. All seven billion of us. We have absolutely no Plan B, and too few of us (hardly any of us) understand that time is fast running out for Plan A. I have long said that Americans are lousy planners, but great at responding to a crisis. Man, I sure hope I’m right about that, because we have done zero planning for this one. We are barreling right along into the greatest crisis man has ever had to face, and too many of us (all of us) are flying blind with the throttles wide open. We haven’t got a plan and we haven’t got a clue.

Peak oil is going to catch everyone off base – even people that think they know what’s going on. (I only pretend to know, but at least I know I’m pretending.) None of us have any idea how hard this will hit or when. Too few understand that it will hit at all, and too many still deny it. If my book gets more people interested enough to ask questions, please: ASK QUESTIONS. Ask your local elected and appointed officials: What are they doing to get ready for this? Ask at every level of government: What about peak oil? Chances are you’re going to get little more than a blank stare, a smarmy government smile and an answer that has nothing to do with the question at all. Keep asking. Especially as we go into the next big presidential election cycle for 2012.

The only government in North America I know of right now that has done any serious study at all on peak oil and what they are facing is the City of Portland, Oregon. By all means, do get a copy of the Portland Peak Oil Task Force report and get it into the hands of your local officials. No, they probably won’t read it, but you did what you could. (And do read that report yourself.) The words “peak oil” need to be as annoyingly common as “drill, baby, drill” was awhile back. We need to hear the words “peak oil” being said. A lot.

There is no IQ test to run for public office. (That kind of explains just about everything right there, doesn’t it?) Elected officials are no smarter than the rest of us. (Even being AS smart would be a step in the right direction.) We all use the same Magic 8 Ball to help guide us through life. I do not expect my government to save me from peak oil. I do not expect to be able to save my government from same. But we have to at least try. Make the effort. At least ask.