Oil embargo on the horizon?

Could it be déjà vu all over again? It very well could. The big deal right now in the United Nations is the idea of recognizing Palestine as a new member of the UN. This is fast becoming a Big Deal, and it could become a big deal gone bad if the UN votes to admit them and the US vetoes that vote. (Somehow, the US apparently has that power.) The brown and squishy would hit the revolving blades right quick like after that. Be ready to duck.

One entirely possible scenario would be a repeat of the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973/74. For those of you a bit foggy on your 70s history (and honestly, who isn’t?), Saudi Arabia, in the fall of 1973, took exception to the US and western Europe backing Israel and stopped shipping oil to one and all. That they withheld five percent of the world’s available oil resulted in a quadrupling of the price of oil. Geez-o-Pete, did we have fun.

If you read my short story, “60 Days Next Year”, posted on the New Colonist web site, much of what I put in that story actually happened all over the US in the winter of 1973/74 as we all scrambled to keep on keeping on. It got ugly blindingly fast. And it could again. All we have to do is be a booger when the time comes.

Twenty-eight years ago, America went to voluntary gas rationing. We used an even/odd system, based on your license plate’s last digit. If your plate ended in an even number, or A through M, you got to buy gas on an even numbered day. If your plate ended in an odd number or N through Z, you bought gas on an odd numbered day. It was a simple system, and it drove us nuts. Sure, you could buy gas every other day, but then again, you also couldn’t buy gas every other day. We went crazy.

People were stealing plates so they’d have one of each. Gas stations were limiting how much you could buy, and if you weren’t a regular customer, you couldn’t buy from them at all. Lines for gas stretched around the block. People followed the gas tanker trucks to see where they were going. It was loopy. And we could go right back to that if we press our luck here real soon.

I am not going to get into a political discussion here about whether or not I think the UN should admit Palestine. I’m pretty sure they’ve admitted worse. I am, and will freely admit to being, a big fan of Israel. Still, I think the US can both back Israel and allow Palestine to be a part of one of the most ineffective organizations on earth. Why not? What does misery love?

But do keep an eye on this one, as a veto by the US will most definitely kick US/Arab relations right in the ol’ camel saddle.

Keep your bike tires pumped.  

Conservation: the next big thing!

From time to time, when people talk about the oil crisis we face, and the need for a viable alternative energy resource, the idea is put forth that all we have to do is go at it as we did putting a man on the moon. We did that in less than a decade, so why not this?

Here’s why not: There aren’t too many blank spots left on the periodic table of the elements. We’ve found all the obvious stuff here on earth, and these days, if some scientist does manage to find something new to add, it’s invariably something like “garbanzobeanium” and it’s really rare. There’s simply nothing left to discover around here that will do all for us that oil has done for us. But that doesn’t mean we can’t all work together to solve the problem. There is a solution, you just won’t like it. Oh, and the US space program is pretty much wrapped up, too. Time to move on.

I must have been out the day “conservation” became a dirty word in America. It became un-American, and maybe just a little bit pink-o. Too bad, ‘cause that’s what’s gonna save us. The big “Moon Landing/Manhattan Project” response to the oil crisis is for us to go after conservation like there’s no tomorrow. Because if we don’t, there isn’t.

Since we do so very little conservation here in America right now, this is a wide open field of possibilities. We are such energy pigs. Where to begin? At home, we need to set goals for energy and resource consumption. What if we said everyone had to limit their home energy use to 5 kwh a day and 750 gallons of water a month, per person? First off, you’d have to figure out how much you are using now to see how little that is. But could you do it? Could you use that little? That ain’t much, but it’s also what the Lovely JoAnn and I use together in our house, so it can be done. I dare you to even take the time to figure out what you use at home, either per person or in total. You will be amazed.

We drive about 10,000 miles a year, and yes, we could reduce that, if and when we have to. We are not extravagant drivers, and again, that figure is for both of us together - about 5,000 miles per person per year. Put like that, it ain’t so bad. But what about you? There’s no doubt that the oil crisis will hit our driving habits hard - and first. How much could you conserve there? Time to start looking.

Of course, for any national conservation effort to work, the public has to be given a very good reason to make the sacrifice. It has to be a sort of Patriotic War Effort thing, and there are far too few people left around here who remember the last one. Still, we did it then, and we can do it again - if we are shown that we have to. I’ve always said that Americans are lousy about planning ahead, but great when it comes to responding to a crisis. And this will be all that.

So maybe now’s the time to buck the trend and look at your life in terms of future conservation potential. How much could you save, how much less would you need to use, if you absolutely had to? Eventually you will, National Conservation Effort or not. Conservation needs to be our next Big Thing.

Pick a car . . . .

Alas, the Tesla Roadster is no more. Or rather, they’ll stop taking orders for them in a couple of months. And while this is touted as big news in the auto world, I’m not shedding a tear for the loss. Did the world really need a $109,000 electric car? Apparently only 1,650 people thought so. And I was not one of them.

The car was based on the Lotus Elise platform, meaning it looked like it was designed by a 14-year-old boy trying to impress his older friend who has a driver’s license. Sure, it went from zero to sixty in under four seconds and it would do 125 mph, but it could take up to 48 hours to be fully charged. Let’s see . . . charge for days, drive for hours. Nope, not for me. You?

So Tesla has decided to stop making an electric sports car and go for a sedan. Is that going to fare any better? The new machine is priced at $58,000, but the first ones will go for $80,000. (Huh?) If you have any stock in Tesla, you also have my sympathy. I’m not sure what the public is really looking for these days in personal transportation, but I’m pretty sure it’s not an eighty thousand dollar sedan with a limited range that takes forever to “fill up”.

What I’d like to see someone build (or import to the US) is a small car with a one-liter gasoline engine. Make it a 90-degree V4 with fuel injection and offer it with either a six-speed manual or four-speed automatic transmission. Make it out of aluminum, so it’s both light and rust-free. Have it seat at least three people, or two plus groceries. And paint it bright colors. I hate grey cars. Oh, and could you maybe make it NOT BORING?

Small cars don’t have to be dull. They can be cool and fun and exciting. The new Fiat 500 looks like a party on four wheels. The Smart Car is still interesting. The Mini Cooper rocks. Me, I think the Toyota Yaris is a fun little egg. I’d drive that!

In the years ahead, we’re going to see all sorts of fun with the global oil supply, and I don’t doubt for a moment that the trend in personal transportation will be small, smaller and smallest, pretty much in that order. That doesn’t mean we have to settle for boring and dull cars. If we’re going to pay a fortune of gas, let’s get our money’s worth — let’s have some fun!

Ok, yes, for now I’m driving a big Chevy pickup truck, but hey — I’m looking. I want to know what’s out there and what my options are. Saw a pristine early 1980s Pontiac Fiero in the grocery store parking lot the other day. Remember those? This one looked as new. I wonder where it’s been hiding? And I wonder if we could get Chevrolet to bring back the Corvair, if for no other reason than to make Ralph Nader’s head explode.

It would be worth it for that alone.

Kill your car?!

Well, maybe not quite yet. ABC Radio National host Robyn Williams posed the question the other day: “(Is this) the beginning of the end for cars?” Good question, Robyn. With gas prices going for all-time highs here in the U.S. this summer, I suspect more and more people might be waking up and taking a much harder look at that big hulking hunk of steel in their garage. But are the car’s days truly numbered?

Right around the turn of the the last century (1900), the automobile was still an experimental rich man’s toy. (And yeah, a toy for experimental rich men.) They were expensive and weird and uncommon until after World War One, and before that, seeing one was An Event. By the time we got through World War Two, the automobile was as much a part of the American Scene as Americans themselves. We became, in every way, a Car Culture. And we still are. But will that - could that - come to an end? Maybe later.

With the subject of this blog and my book being peak oil, we have to consider the possibility. Well, I do. You can go watch Hamster Dance again if you want. (I love those little fuzzballs!) Ok, focus… cars… oil. Oh, yeah. So here’s the deal: Yes, the car is in a tough spot right now. Gas is pricey, and quite likely to get more so, and most unlikely to get cheap any time soon. Like, ever again. I’ve long said that the private automobile is not the highest, best use for oil, and I still know that to be true. But there are far worse things we do with oil. There are definitely a few other things that should fall by the wayside first.

Let’s start with the entire commercial airline industry. If the average airliner holds 200 passengers, how many of them really had to make that trip by plane? How many of them really had to get there that fast? I’m guessing pretty much none of them. The airline industry is this coal mine’s canary when it comes to oil. They will be about the first big industry to die. If you hold any airline stock, last year would be a good time to sell it.

Then there’s the cruise industry. At least the airlines go some place. Cruise ships just go out and come back. Sure, they’re fun and exotic and fattening, a great combination, but geez, Louise - look at all the oil going out that smokestack! How long can they keep that up? And wouldn’t a sailing ship make more sense? (And be way cooler?) Yo-ho.

When it comes to just going out and back, private aircraft are often little more than oil-burning ego trips. Literally. More often than not, a private plane takes off and lands at the same airport. They go up, they fly around for a bit, they come back, and they didn’t do a darned thing but burn fuel the whole time. Yeah, that was a great use of oil. Go team.

When I moved to Florida in 1969, the causeways were lined with Hobie Cat sailboats. They were (and still are) the very definition of cool on water to me. Hobie Adler is a genius, and you can tell him I said so if you see him. The thing is, those cats take some skill to sail. Done right, they are fast and a thing of beauty in motion. Done wrong, and they are upside down, (but easily righted). You don’t see too many Hobie Cats out there these days, and I honestly believe that is our loss.

Now it’s all about jet skis, and they suck. Well, they both suck and blow. They suck down oil and gas, and they blow out nasty fumes. And they go nowhere. Where the folks with the Hobies would get out there and go places, the jet skis mostly do circles about 100 yards offshore and that’s it. Whadda waste. I missed seeing the colorful sails and the flying hulls. But it gets worse.

Leaf blowers. There, I said it. The absolute worst possible use for our precious remaining oil resources are the legions of idiotic, noisy gas-powered leaf blowers that rack and ruin the gentle ambiance of every suburban neighborhood every freaking weekend. And I don’t just say that because I like to take afternoon naps. (Well, ok, I sort of do.) Still, leaf blowers are an insane waste of energy. They do nothing; they just blow stuff around. Stuff you should maybe have raked up instead. Duh. I will be so glad when they are gone. Party at my place. Seriously.

Ah, but the car? (Remember? The car?) Well, there’s a good chance all of this other stuff will fall by the wayside long before you see your last car drive by. What began as a rich man’s toy more than a hundred years ago, will go back to being a rich man’s toy in the next hundred years. The automobile’s general, everyday use will drop, and people will adapt and find other ways to get around - or stay home - but the car will be with us, in some fashion, for quite some time, I suspect. And I’m ok with that.

That means I might still, some day, own an Avanti. Cool.

Believe in the power of the bicycle

I found religion on my 60th birthday. Oh, sit back down and let me explain. For my 60th birthday, I decided that I would host a Tweed Ride out to Safety Harbor and have an ever-so-genteel lunch at the Spa. It was delightful. A lovely day all around. As we rode up Safety Harbor’s Bayshore Trail along Old Tampa Bay, toward the marina and the Spa, the thought occurred to me that people might mistake us for members of some old-school religion. Mennonites, perhaps. We were riding antique black bicycles and were dressed (rather conservatively) as one might have dressed for a bicycle ride in England in 1935. I was wearing knickers and knee socks, a long sleeve shirt, vest and bow tie. The Lovely JoAnn exuded an equally vintage charm. That is to say, we looked like a couple of odd ducks on old bikes. It had to mean something, right? I told JoAnn what I had thought, and she said, no, we were not Mennonites. We are Veloists. We believe in Veloism. And by Ignaz, I think she’s right!

In this politically correct world in which we live these days, it’s considered bad form to ask one’s religion, age or political persuasion, so it probably won’t come up in polite conversation, but, should anyone ask, I now have an answer to the question, “What am I?” I am a Veloist. I believe in Veloism. I believe in the power of the bicycle. Always have. Always will.

H. G. Wells famously said that he did not despair for the human race when he saw an adult on a bicycle. Wells was a Veloist, and I understand that. I feel at my best when I am off on a wheel, as they say, touring around town and seeing the world from the exalted position of a bicycle seat. I really do feel better when I am on a bike, and I feel as though I am a better person for riding; physically, mentally and emotionally. I believe in the bike. I believe in the power of the bike to make me that better person. So help me Schwinn. (And can I get a “Campagnolo!” from the congregation?)

At a modest pace, the bicycle allows you to burn about 400 calories and hour, so yes, there are most certainly concrete physical reasons why the bicycle makes you feel so good. Exercise releases endorphins that give you that “runner’s high” as you ride, so yes, we can quantify that good feeling you get when you ride your bike. Still, there’s more to it than that. On a bicycle, you are part of the world around you, as opposed to being sealed off and removed from the world around you in a car. You are as one with the earth. How Zen-like. Um, make that how Velo-like.

As oil supplies get tight in the years ahead, I expect to see more and more people, more and more Americans, anyway, discover the simple joys of Veloism, whether they want to or not. Yes, I know many of you will be dragged there kicking and screaming all the way. Funny thing about that: Oil is often referred to as an addiction. I’ve never heard of anyone talking about Petroleumism. One’s reliance on oil to answer all needs is seen as a bad thing, while the Veloist is merely seen as a happy kook. Well, for now. I hope to see that change in the years ahead, and we may see Veloism go mainstream.

When gas prices spiked to over $4.00 a gallon back in 2008, people were starting to take me rather seriously. I could have made a lot of converts to Veloism, and maybe did make one or two. I’d wheel my bike into the elevator, and the polite questions would begin: How far? How fast? What about rain? Dogs? Hills? As a devout Veloist, I answered every question. I hope it helped people see the bicycle light.

Maybe I need to work on this. Flesh it out a bit. Maybe write a book on the subject. The funny thing is, I abdicated my claim to the obvious title of that book when I saw another cyclist lay claim to it. Grant Petersen, out at Rivendell Bicycle Works, came up with the same word I coined at about the same time I did: Velosophy. It’s a grand and wonderful word, and I told him he could have it. I knew I didn’t really need it, and another word would come along, all in good time. And it did. While velosophy explores the philosophy of the bicycle, veloism raises it to a (tax-exempt) religious status. Or maybe not.

Let me say right here, in writing, that I have absolutely no intention of pursuing Veloism as a legal, tax-exempt real religion. That would be wrong, and require the filling out of far too many forms. But I do lay claim to “Veloist” and “Veloism” to describe the religious relationship of people and their bicycles, even if it was JoAnn that coined the phrases originally. I claim them on her behalf. How’s that? Oh, and this is Blog #42, the perfect one to explore the meaning of life, the universe and everything. As it turns out, the answer might not be “42”. The answer might be “Go ride your bike.” The answer might be Veloism.

Habeas sentiari bike fatigat. That’s “Keep your bike tires pumped” in Latin. Have I got a cool religion or what?

Ignaz says go ride your bike.

Oil prices up, gas prices up - What can you do?

So here we have Libya and Saudi Arabia, two very different countries that both produce enough oil for each to export a fair amount, and both are in the news these days. Libya, the lesser of the two when it comes to oil production, has been run for some 40 years by a raving lunatic with serious fashion (and reality) issues. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is run by a very large royal family that I’d swear all look exactly alike.

Libya is in the midst of a rebellion/civil war these days that has caused the price of oil to rise. Libya is beset by what is termed, in the oil game, “above ground factors” – that is to say, people. Personally, I’m all for rebellion in Libya. It’s high time they boosted ol’ Mummar right off the longest dock in Tripoli. Do NOT make us send in the Marines. Again. But above ground factors are just that: Stuff we cause – and can fix – ourselves.

The Saudis are up against a far more solid wall: Below ground factors. As their production falls, they might do everything they can and still they may not be able to maintain their current level of oil production in the years ahead, let alone increase production to make up for the shortfall in Libya, or anywhere else. They day they admit that publicly, if they ever do, will be a red-letter day for oil. And a bad day for the rest of us.

I saw a wonderful quote today about the price of gasoline. The writer said the price of gasoline is not set by what it cost to produce, but what it will cost to replace. Wow. Great quote there. So look for the price of gas to go up. Maybe a lot. A friend of mine that owns a gas station said today that he expects to see four-dollar gas by the end of March. And that’s a full two months before the traditional start of the North American Driving Season that starts on Memorial Day weekend and runs through Labor Day weekend. Will we see five-dollar gas across the US this year? My Magic 8 Ball says “OUTLOOK GOOD”.

So what are you going to do about it? Don’t bother with any sort of boycott or “gas out” you may hear about. They don’t work. Even if you don’t buy the gas, someone else will. It’s a global commodity. And please don’t go and protest the price of gas at your local gas station. It’s not their fault. Often, it’s not even their gas. They just sell it on consignment, and make very little, if anything on it.

Do you really want to protest the high price of gas? Then you’re going to have to get proactive and seriously radical. You’re going to have to think outside the box, break all the rules and answer to no one. You’re gonna have to be a loner, march to your own drum and make a statement.

You’re gonna have to ride a bicycle.

A Test Drive: Nissan Leaf

Busy Saturday last weekend. The Lovely JoAnn and I went over to Tampa to check out the all new, all-electric Nissan Leaf car. We got to the International Plaza (mall), and found that Nissan had carved out a chunk of the mall’s north parking lot for their little one-car car show. But they did bring more than one car.

We got signed in and then our little group of eight or so were routed through several temporary glass buildings as our guide told us all about the brand new Leaf and Nissan’s long history of electric cars. (Who knew?) They had photos of all of their previous prototypes, going back for decades. JoAnn and I both decided we liked their first one best - it looked like a funky milk truck. Very cool. They had a Leaf chassis on display, showing all of the batteries that were on board the Leaf. There were many, many batteries.

After that, we got to walk around a functional Leaf. It was pretty much a typical small car from Japan. Which is to say: everything looked good, everything fit, and it had that new car smell. Love that new car smell! Our guide told us that because the Leaf is so quiet, it has a loudspeaker out in front of the left front wheel that puts out noise when the car is going under 18 mph so it doesn’t sneak up on people. The motor itself had some fake engine casings around it so it looks more like a typical transverse four-cylinder engine that you are used to seeing in cars like this. I thought that was funny, but I understood their logic. Then we got to drive it. Well, I got to drive it. JoAnn rode in the back and a brave Nissan rep rode shotgun. Hello, pedal - meet metal.

I had heard that electric cars have plenty of low end torque and will surprise you. Yep, roger that. Maybe it’s the lack of any revving motor roar, or maybe it’s the one continuous whoosh of the direct drive, but let me tell you: You step on the go pedal (I can’t really call it a gas pedal, now can I?), and buddy-boy, this car goes right now. No stumble, no hesitation off idle, nothing but go. It also handles like a go cart. You have my word on that.

Nissan says the Leaf will go about 100 miles on a full charge, and will do 90 miles an hour. How long it takes to recharge depends on available charging voltage. Standard 110v house current will charge it, but you need to give it time. Like overnight. Add a 220v charging station to your house and you cut the charging time in half. I suspect most folks will go for that option.

We were told Nissan estimated the average annual cost of charging the Leaf at $560 per year. Of course that depends on the price of electricity where you live, but they had the facts and figures to show that it would be cheaper to charge the Leaf at home than buy the amount of gasoline it would need instead. And yeah, we do spend more that $560 a year for gasoline.

Now here’s where it got all funny: As we walked into their fenced-off area in the parking lot, we saw a brand new Trek Belleville bicycle sitting there, on display in their area. To me, the Belleville is one of the best thought out bikes in the world. If I were to design my own bike from the ground up, I’d be hard pressed to do better than that one. It’s a very cool bike named after a very cool bicycle movie (The Triplets of Belleville). But why was it there?

As it turns out, if you take the tour and drive the Leaf, which I did, you could make a 30-second video about the Leaf, and if your video gets the most votes of all the videos made at that test drive location (Tampa), you win the bike! Wow! So here’s the deal: Vote for me just as though I need another bike. I think if you get the most votes of all the videos in the US, you get a car or something, but hey, I just want the bike!

Here’s the video. (Don't click on the picture of me, but do click on the link below it)

https://www.drivenissanleaf.com/Win/Vote.aspx?b=9RC7AAWZF6FM

If nothing else, this will give you a chance to see what I look like and sound like. Which is to say, nothing at all like Richard Castle. Vote for Uncle Chippie!

WikiLeaks Exposes Peak Oil Reality

Oh, geez, Lousie: Here we go. WikiLeaks just pulled the rug out from under the Saudis by publishing the contents of some cables about their oil production — and the fragility thereof. The potential lack thereof. Where have I heard this before? Let me think . . . Oh, yeah, just about everywhere. For years. The only difference is, this comes from the Kingdom itself. This is not good. This is bad, even. Very, very bad.

Look, it’s one thing for a guy like me to sit on the other side of the world and speculate on what might be happening, oil-wise, in the Empty Quarter of the Arabian Peninsula. I’m speculating. That’s a nice word for guessing. I’m making it all up. But as it turns out, I was guessing right. So were a lot of other people, as it turns out. Everyone but the Saudis, it seems. For years (for decades), the Saudis have stood there and smiled and said there were no problems. Everything is fine. Don’t worry. Be happy. And for all of those years, we bought the act. We wanted to buy the act. We had to buy the act.

Back in 2001, I wrote Ghawar is Dying, a short essay for The New Colonist web site, outlining how the beginning of the end might, well, begin. I caught some flak from oil types for it. They wanted to know how I gained access to the restricted oil fields in the middle of the Saudi desert. They were not happy, and I don’t think they believed me when I said I’d never been there. I made the whole thing up, but as it turns out, I think I might have been right. And that was ten years ago.

In 2004 I wrote Sixty Days Next Year, also for my good friends over at The New Colonist. The fictitious events in “60 Days” have yet to come true, but the headlines of the past few weeks out of Egypt show that all things are possible in a great big hurry, and those 60 days could start tomorrow. Please, just remember: I was never there and it’s not my fault. Seriously. It was supposed to be fiction.

If the cables exposed by WikiLeaks portend events yet to come, as in coming soon, we are all in for a wild, wild ride. If the Saudis can’t smooth this one over, we are staring the great peak oil monster right in the face; and buddy, whatever you do, don’t blink. If the Saudis admit they are facing peak oil production, we may see the price of oil rise like a bottle rocket. I remember the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973. The loss of just 5% of the world’s oil supply caused the price of oil to quadruple. Quadruple. With oil bouncing around $90 when I checked it the other day, are you ready for $360 oil? No. No you aren’t. No one is.

Best case scenario: The Saudis do what the Saudis do better than anyone else on earth: They smooth it over. They schmooze. They smile and talk their way out of it. And in all honest, I do sincerely hope they can. Worst case scenario: Gasoline in the United States goes to over $10 a gallon in very short order, and is rationed like you wouldn’t believe. I remember the gas lines in ’73. I drove a VW back then, so it was no big deal. This time around, it will be different. It won’t be a four-month political event. It will be permanent.

My advice to you: If you don’t have a good, practical bicycle, go buy one, and soon. If you do have a bicycle, go buy baskets for it, fenders, a good lock and some lights. And buy a bicycle helmet, rain cape and cycling gloves while you’re at it. You are going to want all of that, and very soon. I hope I’m wrong. I hope the Saudis can schmooze their way out of this one, as they have in the past. But if they can’t?

Welcome to our brave new world. Just don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Planes, Trains and Automobiles - Peak Travel

Eric Morris, in his “Peak Travel?” article in the January 11, 2011 New York Times, has pointed out that we madcap, drive-crazy Americans are now actually driving less, and have been since 2005. From the end of WWII to about the year 2000, it was all about driving more and going further each year. These days, not so much. Now we go less. Is this a peak oil thing? Maybe sort of, but not exactly.

While it is true that we tend to drive less as gas gets more expensive, the massive tide of internet shopping has also served to cut down the annual miles driven. Oddly enough, Eric was only looking at miles driven. I would like to have seen some mention of miles flown, and of miles traveled by train. And I would have liked to have seen flying miles drop as rail miles rose - but I can’t say that is happening. I didn’t see it. But maybe we really are traveling less.

In the comments after Mr. Morris’s article, one poster (“Drill-Baby-Drill drill Team”) pointed out that the grand iconic classic of all road trips, the one where Joseph took Mary back home from Jerusalem to Bethlehem to comply with that pesky Roman census thing, was a trip of only eight miles. And my lovely wife points out that there is no mention in the Bible of a donkey being involved, making it rather likely that Mary walked.

The point to be made here is that at one time, a trip of eight miles was a very, very big deal, indeed. A trip of, quite literally, Biblical proportions. These days, it’s lunch. I figure I could walk eight miles in a little less than three hours, as I tend to saunter along at a blistering three-mph clip. Those same eight miles would take less than an hour on my bicycle, and about 15 minutes in the truck, depending on the lights. But what if we go back to bikes and donkeys and feet?

Considering the viability of mass transit in America, the foot-and-bike option seems likely as the oil gets scarce. Author James H. Kunstler (www.kunstler.com) has famously said America has a rail system that would be an embarrassment to Bulgaria — and he was being polite. We essentially have no passenger rail system to speak of for the vast bulk of America. You wanna get there? Then you wanna drive.

I live in Clearwater, Florida, right across the bay from Tampa and just north of St. Petersburg. Pinellas County, home to St. Petersburg, Clearwater, 22 other cities and almost one million people packed tightly into just 280 square miles, has no passenger rail service at all. No light rail, no Amtrak service, no Disney-inspired monorail, nothing. We have some buses, but even they don’t go to all corners of the county. There are two buses that go to Tampa, but only on weekdays. Oh, we do have a Greyhound Bus Station over on the other side of the mall. Maybe. I honestly haven’t thought to even look to see if it’s still there, now that I think about it. We are, after all a nation of drivers, even if we are driving less.

And what if we are driving less? That’s a good thing. I expect we’ll see more of that, or less, I guess. I’m hoping as we all drive less we’ll see more of what was right there all around us all along. We will live locally, and we will (finally) know where we live. We will become neighbors. I like that. Do you?

It's the end of the year as we know it . . . .

I learned a fun new word this week: Meatspace. Definition: Not cyberspace, where we all seem to be spending more and more time, but that other place — the real place where we are when we’re not totally absorbed by the internet, texting, Facebook, MySpace and failblog.org. That is to say, the real world. And let me tell you, meatspace is a way scary place.

There’s no instruction manual for meatspace. No shortcuts, no pause button and probably not any do-overs unless (here’s hoping) the Hindus got it right. In meatspace, your avatar is not as cool. It’s probably visually wider, and lacks the cool haircut and hip wardrobe. If you don’t like where you are in cyberspace, you can change it with a click. We are not nearly so lucky in meatspace. We’re kinda stuck here 24/7.

I mention this because I see too many people who tend to live out their lives in cyberspace, and only show up in meatspace to eat and sleep. They have no real connection to anything else in meatspace, and I think that’s going to bite them in their meatspace behind hard enough that they might actually notice here before long.

I’m watching gasoline prices steadily rise. I’m reading about a number of oil producing Middle Eastern countries starting to scale back their domestic subsidies — the very thing I wrote about in 60 Days Next Year back in 2004 that sets off a decidedly unpleasant chain of events around the world in that work of fiction-at-the-time. Will life imitate art? Stay tuned. It’ll probably be on YouTube.

We’re scootin’ right along toward a time of great change here in meatspace, and for anyone fool enough to say, "Oh, we had no warning," I can only say, "No, you had no warning because you weren’t paying attention. You were too busy in cyberspace, posting to your Facebook page, tweeting your friends and checking out all the cool apps on your hot new cell phone." Meanwhile, here in meatspace, we’re watching the situation get more interesting every day — but not any better.

The irony of this rant being nothing but another blog in cyberspace really is funny, isn’t it? Just promise me that at some point this week, you’ll turn off the computer and walk outside, if only for a minute. Me, I’m going for a bicycle ride tomorrow. A real bicycle ride, on a real bicycle, in real meatspace.

Hope I don’t get a meatflat.

What about electric cars?

There’s been a lot of interest in electric cars lately, with the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt both about to hit the market. Too many people still see them as the answer to our dependency on oil, both foreign and domestic. Sadly, they are not the answer, and it’s tough to get people to understand that.

First, electricity is not an energy source. It is an energy carrier. That is, we have to generate electricity using another energy source — such as oil. Using oil to make electricity so we don’t use oil makes no sense at all. And yet, that’s exactly what people are lining up to do.

This next generation of electric cars (they’ve only been around a hundred years or so) still have a lot in common with their antique ancestors: they are expensive, heavy and have a limited range. Take a look at the Chevy Volt, if you can find one to look at. It will cost about forty thousand dollars and take up to ten hours at 110v to charge the batteries to go just 40 miles — about an hour’s drive on a ten hour charge.

The Nissan Leaf will go for over thirty thousand dollars and still takes eight hours to charge using an optional (recommended) 220v charging station you can have built into your home. Obviously, one does not buy an electric car to save money. No word yet on what replacement battery packs might cost for these cars when the time comes — and it will.

Power companies across America are both sweating bullets and jumping for joy. Sure, the extra income will help (and you’d better believe these things will make a serious bump in your monthly electric bill), but, in the words of the Associated Press’s Jonathan Fahey, “Plugged into a socket, an electric car can draw as much power as a small house. The surge in demand could knock out power to a home, or even a neighborhood.” Estimates on the cost of having a 220 volt charging station wired into your home go as high as $4,000 (for both the purchase of the charging station and the installation) over and above the price of the car, but not taking tax credits into consideration.

Electric cars are going to be the next Prius; that is, the next greenwash on wheels. People will buy them to look green, and still do nothing to curb their miles or their dependency on fossil fuels and private motor transport. They are not the answer.

To me, it makes more sense to buy a $10,000 subcompact and work harder to drive it less. Says the guy with the full-size pick up. Ah, well. It will be interesting to see how this next wave of electric cars are received by the motoring public.

And I just wish GM had worked harder to make the EV-1 their electric vehicle flagship. Now that was a cool electric car.

Green gas (station)? Good Grief!

Charlie Brown said it best, and with feeling: “Good grief.” My lovely wife made sure I saw an article in the paper this week about a “green” gas station. And no, I don’t mean that’s the color they painted the building. They do honestly believe they have an environmentally conscientious gas station. And they say that with a straight face. Good grief, indeed.

The commercial establishment of note is the Bayshore Breeze Mobil station, on the northwest corner of Alt. US 19 and Curlew Road in north Dunedin, Florida. Having just undergone a major renovation, the rebuilt structure has attained a “green business certification” from something called the Green Business League. (I’m picturing something akin to the Munchkins’ Lollipop League, but maybe a little taller.) All I can offer in their defense, and it isn’t much, is this: It’s not really a gas station anymore. It was before they rebuilt it. It had repair bays and broken cars parked around it and mechanics and everything a real gas station is supposed to have. Now it’s just a convenience store with gas pumps. But is it green?

“What makes the gas station green,” the article states, “is in the details.” Such as? All gas appliances, they say. Since when is natural gas green? It’s a non-renewable natural resource like oil and uranium. I could never figure out why we call it “natural gas.” As opposed to what? We don’t call it natural coal or natural oil, do we? Again: Good grief.

The article mentioned that “a special spray foam insulation” was used to insulate the building, but no mention of what it really was. Was it oil-based? No idea. My guess is yes, but who knows? They are using LED lighting and solar tubes – so I’ll give them the “green light” on those. The flooring is made from recycled tires, so they get another greenie point (as opposed to a brownie point) there. They plan to use non-toxic cleaning products, and use the air conditioner’s water run-off for the plants. Sure, why not. But why not design the building to not need the air conditioning in the first place? Ah, well.

The gas station is about nine miles north of me, so I may pedal up that way one day next week and check it out. Hey, I’m all for green – even light green. The article had a photo at the top of the front of the new gas station. The sign above the door reads “Bayshore Breeze Market & Grill.” Some gas station. And you know what I don’t see in the photo? A bike rack.

Some green. MTT279FQ9HAW

Good News, Bad News

Good news: I have more time to ride my bicycle these days. Bad news: I have more time to ride my bicycle. But let me tell you, we are not a nation of good drivers. Out on a bike, you get to see far more cars and drivers than you would if you kept up with traffic, and that is not a good thing. There was a time when we took pride in our driving skills. Those times are gone – long gone. Now driving is just something that happens while we are talking, texting or doing any number of other things we shouldn’t be doing while we are driving. And even if we are doing nothing but driving, we still don’t quite seem to have the hang of it. And yes, I do lump myself in there, but at least I admit I’m not that good.

However, I do notice something every time we see a spike in gas prices: As a gallon of regular gas tops $3.00, people don’t drive cautious – they drive mean. If you're like me, out there on a bicycle, mean is not good. Mean can be deadly. I can’t imagine what I’ll see on the roads if gas goes above $5.00. Or $10.00. Wow. The future’s looking kinda ugly, ain’t it?

But hey, my new book about peak oil, Peak of the Devil, is on sale and I'm doing radio interviews all over North America! Go team! I have a feeling I’m kind of a shock to the talk radio hosts, as I have no fear. None. I spent seven years in tights on the stage at the local Renaissance Festival, juggling machetes, double-blade axes and fire torches. I have nothing to fear from a radio host 3,000 miles away. So if you are up for a giggle, click here to check the schedule on my web site, and tune in if you can.

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Peak of the Devil should be in every public library and recreation centre. It’s a great introduction to the topic. . . .there is much genius within the pages, a great deal of perceptive and subtle thinking.

— Matthew Wild, Energy Bulletin

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