Oil embargo on the horizon?

Could it be déjà vu all over again? It very well could. The big deal right now in the United Nations is the idea of recognizing Palestine as a new member of the UN. This is fast becoming a Big Deal, and it could become a big deal gone bad if the UN votes to admit them and the US vetoes that vote. (Somehow, the US apparently has that power.) The brown and squishy would hit the revolving blades right quick like after that. Be ready to duck.

One entirely possible scenario would be a repeat of the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973/74. For those of you a bit foggy on your 70s history (and honestly, who isn’t?), Saudi Arabia, in the fall of 1973, took exception to the US and western Europe backing Israel and stopped shipping oil to one and all. That they withheld five percent of the world’s available oil resulted in a quadrupling of the price of oil. Geez-o-Pete, did we have fun.

If you read my short story, “60 Days Next Year”, posted on the New Colonist web site, much of what I put in that story actually happened all over the US in the winter of 1973/74 as we all scrambled to keep on keeping on. It got ugly blindingly fast. And it could again. All we have to do is be a booger when the time comes.

Twenty-eight years ago, America went to voluntary gas rationing. We used an even/odd system, based on your license plate’s last digit. If your plate ended in an even number, or A through M, you got to buy gas on an even numbered day. If your plate ended in an odd number or N through Z, you bought gas on an odd numbered day. It was a simple system, and it drove us nuts. Sure, you could buy gas every other day, but then again, you also couldn’t buy gas every other day. We went crazy.

People were stealing plates so they’d have one of each. Gas stations were limiting how much you could buy, and if you weren’t a regular customer, you couldn’t buy from them at all. Lines for gas stretched around the block. People followed the gas tanker trucks to see where they were going. It was loopy. And we could go right back to that if we press our luck here real soon.

I am not going to get into a political discussion here about whether or not I think the UN should admit Palestine. I’m pretty sure they’ve admitted worse. I am, and will freely admit to being, a big fan of Israel. Still, I think the US can both back Israel and allow Palestine to be a part of one of the most ineffective organizations on earth. Why not? What does misery love?

But do keep an eye on this one, as a veto by the US will most definitely kick US/Arab relations right in the ol’ camel saddle.

Keep your bike tires pumped.  

Democracy and Oil: All Eyes on Libya

So finally, after I thought it was too late, the good guys got together and decided maybe they wouldn’t let Mummar Q. just go right ahead and kill everyone in Libya anyway. Thanks, guys - but why did it take you so long??? Geesh.

Okay, so now Libya is more of a police action. Not a war, exactly. It was a civil war, but now some other countries have decided to help keep the rebels from being totally decimated, so what have we got here? A skirmish? A hot bed? Whatever it is, it ain’t Viet Nam in a cat box. It will be over and done and soon. I hope. All concerned have promised air support, but not boots on the ground. Again: I hope.

Right now, 7 p.m. Sunday night, March 20, 2010, oil is at $102.87. That’s about where it’s been for awhile, dancing all around the $100 mark for weeks. I guess if it goes really badly in Libya we might see the price of oil climb, but then again, if the future of Libya involves the development of a stable democracy, that might not be so bad for the price of oil in the long run. And I’m all for that.

Contrary to popular opinion, I am not rooting for the end of the world. I don’t want to see the price of oil go through the roof. I drive a pickup truck. A big one. I don’t mow my yard with a goat. I’m currently paying $3.51 a gallon for gas, and that’s quite high enough, thank you very much.

Now here’s hoping Libya gets new management, and the new guys are smarter than the last guy. “Arab democracy” . . . man, there’s a new phrase. I like it. Could the Middle East be the new hotbed of democracy, with Egypt and Libya leading the way? Whooo-eeeee. I can’t wait to see what tomorrow brings.

Like I said: Here’s hoping.

Oil prices up, gas prices up - What can you do?

So here we have Libya and Saudi Arabia, two very different countries that both produce enough oil for each to export a fair amount, and both are in the news these days. Libya, the lesser of the two when it comes to oil production, has been run for some 40 years by a raving lunatic with serious fashion (and reality) issues. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is run by a very large royal family that I’d swear all look exactly alike.

Libya is in the midst of a rebellion/civil war these days that has caused the price of oil to rise. Libya is beset by what is termed, in the oil game, “above ground factors” – that is to say, people. Personally, I’m all for rebellion in Libya. It’s high time they boosted ol’ Mummar right off the longest dock in Tripoli. Do NOT make us send in the Marines. Again. But above ground factors are just that: Stuff we cause – and can fix – ourselves.

The Saudis are up against a far more solid wall: Below ground factors. As their production falls, they might do everything they can and still they may not be able to maintain their current level of oil production in the years ahead, let alone increase production to make up for the shortfall in Libya, or anywhere else. They day they admit that publicly, if they ever do, will be a red-letter day for oil. And a bad day for the rest of us.

I saw a wonderful quote today about the price of gasoline. The writer said the price of gasoline is not set by what it cost to produce, but what it will cost to replace. Wow. Great quote there. So look for the price of gas to go up. Maybe a lot. A friend of mine that owns a gas station said today that he expects to see four-dollar gas by the end of March. And that’s a full two months before the traditional start of the North American Driving Season that starts on Memorial Day weekend and runs through Labor Day weekend. Will we see five-dollar gas across the US this year? My Magic 8 Ball says “OUTLOOK GOOD”.

So what are you going to do about it? Don’t bother with any sort of boycott or “gas out” you may hear about. They don’t work. Even if you don’t buy the gas, someone else will. It’s a global commodity. And please don’t go and protest the price of gas at your local gas station. It’s not their fault. Often, it’s not even their gas. They just sell it on consignment, and make very little, if anything on it.

Do you really want to protest the high price of gas? Then you’re going to have to get proactive and seriously radical. You’re going to have to think outside the box, break all the rules and answer to no one. You’re gonna have to be a loner, march to your own drum and make a statement.

You’re gonna have to ride a bicycle.

WikiLeaks Exposes Peak Oil Reality

Oh, geez, Lousie: Here we go. WikiLeaks just pulled the rug out from under the Saudis by publishing the contents of some cables about their oil production — and the fragility thereof. The potential lack thereof. Where have I heard this before? Let me think . . . Oh, yeah, just about everywhere. For years. The only difference is, this comes from the Kingdom itself. This is not good. This is bad, even. Very, very bad.

Look, it’s one thing for a guy like me to sit on the other side of the world and speculate on what might be happening, oil-wise, in the Empty Quarter of the Arabian Peninsula. I’m speculating. That’s a nice word for guessing. I’m making it all up. But as it turns out, I was guessing right. So were a lot of other people, as it turns out. Everyone but the Saudis, it seems. For years (for decades), the Saudis have stood there and smiled and said there were no problems. Everything is fine. Don’t worry. Be happy. And for all of those years, we bought the act. We wanted to buy the act. We had to buy the act.

Back in 2001, I wrote Ghawar is Dying, a short essay for The New Colonist web site, outlining how the beginning of the end might, well, begin. I caught some flak from oil types for it. They wanted to know how I gained access to the restricted oil fields in the middle of the Saudi desert. They were not happy, and I don’t think they believed me when I said I’d never been there. I made the whole thing up, but as it turns out, I think I might have been right. And that was ten years ago.

In 2004 I wrote Sixty Days Next Year, also for my good friends over at The New Colonist. The fictitious events in “60 Days” have yet to come true, but the headlines of the past few weeks out of Egypt show that all things are possible in a great big hurry, and those 60 days could start tomorrow. Please, just remember: I was never there and it’s not my fault. Seriously. It was supposed to be fiction.

If the cables exposed by WikiLeaks portend events yet to come, as in coming soon, we are all in for a wild, wild ride. If the Saudis can’t smooth this one over, we are staring the great peak oil monster right in the face; and buddy, whatever you do, don’t blink. If the Saudis admit they are facing peak oil production, we may see the price of oil rise like a bottle rocket. I remember the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973. The loss of just 5% of the world’s oil supply caused the price of oil to quadruple. Quadruple. With oil bouncing around $90 when I checked it the other day, are you ready for $360 oil? No. No you aren’t. No one is.

Best case scenario: The Saudis do what the Saudis do better than anyone else on earth: They smooth it over. They schmooze. They smile and talk their way out of it. And in all honest, I do sincerely hope they can. Worst case scenario: Gasoline in the United States goes to over $10 a gallon in very short order, and is rationed like you wouldn’t believe. I remember the gas lines in ’73. I drove a VW back then, so it was no big deal. This time around, it will be different. It won’t be a four-month political event. It will be permanent.

My advice to you: If you don’t have a good, practical bicycle, go buy one, and soon. If you do have a bicycle, go buy baskets for it, fenders, a good lock and some lights. And buy a bicycle helmet, rain cape and cycling gloves while you’re at it. You are going to want all of that, and very soon. I hope I’m wrong. I hope the Saudis can schmooze their way out of this one, as they have in the past. But if they can’t?

Welcome to our brave new world. Just don’t say I didn’t warn you.

It's the end of the year as we know it . . . .

I learned a fun new word this week: Meatspace. Definition: Not cyberspace, where we all seem to be spending more and more time, but that other place — the real place where we are when we’re not totally absorbed by the internet, texting, Facebook, MySpace and failblog.org. That is to say, the real world. And let me tell you, meatspace is a way scary place.

There’s no instruction manual for meatspace. No shortcuts, no pause button and probably not any do-overs unless (here’s hoping) the Hindus got it right. In meatspace, your avatar is not as cool. It’s probably visually wider, and lacks the cool haircut and hip wardrobe. If you don’t like where you are in cyberspace, you can change it with a click. We are not nearly so lucky in meatspace. We’re kinda stuck here 24/7.

I mention this because I see too many people who tend to live out their lives in cyberspace, and only show up in meatspace to eat and sleep. They have no real connection to anything else in meatspace, and I think that’s going to bite them in their meatspace behind hard enough that they might actually notice here before long.

I’m watching gasoline prices steadily rise. I’m reading about a number of oil producing Middle Eastern countries starting to scale back their domestic subsidies — the very thing I wrote about in 60 Days Next Year back in 2004 that sets off a decidedly unpleasant chain of events around the world in that work of fiction-at-the-time. Will life imitate art? Stay tuned. It’ll probably be on YouTube.

We’re scootin’ right along toward a time of great change here in meatspace, and for anyone fool enough to say, "Oh, we had no warning," I can only say, "No, you had no warning because you weren’t paying attention. You were too busy in cyberspace, posting to your Facebook page, tweeting your friends and checking out all the cool apps on your hot new cell phone." Meanwhile, here in meatspace, we’re watching the situation get more interesting every day — but not any better.

The irony of this rant being nothing but another blog in cyberspace really is funny, isn’t it? Just promise me that at some point this week, you’ll turn off the computer and walk outside, if only for a minute. Me, I’m going for a bicycle ride tomorrow. A real bicycle ride, on a real bicycle, in real meatspace.

Hope I don’t get a meatflat.

Baby, it's cold outside

Ok, so it’s cold here right now. I did not come down here for this. I live in west central Florida (Clearwater), and they’re talking about it being down in the thirties here for a couple of nights. Yeah, I know, compared to, say, Minnesota, this ain’t so bad. Balmy, even. By the end of the week, it will be back up in the 70s, so I’m not complaining, but still…

So what do you suppose will happen up north when natural gas and heating oil start to get too expensive, and then become unavailable in the coming years? How long would your house be inhabitable in the winter when the power goes off? These are not idle questions. Of the four seasons, there’s one that can kill you. What’s it like where you live in the winter? And is it worth the risk? It’s not like you’re going to get much of a warning on this, you know. (Well, other than me. Here. Now.)

In his book, The Adjustment, Charles MacArthur wrote of the disaster that befalls the New York metro area when the power grid fails totally in the middle of a February blizzard. It is a stark and sobering look at just how fast it can all go so very badly when the power goes off in deep winter — especially in a big city. A matter of hours. Maybe minutes. In his novel, Charles writes of an immediate and mass migration south, by any means necessary. Not everyone makes it. I think he got that part absolutely right as well. I do expect to see people moving to Florida in record numbers as the north (the Midwest and the northeast) becomes more difficult and less comfortable in the years ahead, all in the aftermath of peak oil and declining natural gas supplies. Lacking power and heat, I would expect Canada to be emptied out in fairly short order — and I wouldn’t blame them one bit. It gets cold up there, I hear.

Sometimes I wonder if a slow decline in energy resources is worse than a sudden crash. Slow declines tend to offer hope — it might not be that bad — we might turn it around — maybe it’s gonna be okay. With a fast crash, you know you’re pooched and you have to deal with it Right Now. Fast is a great motivator.

Until last winter, I said I never knew why anyone would live north of I-10. We had such a long, cold winter here last year, I’ve amended that to I-4. Another bad one and I’m dropping it down to Alligator Alley. And St. Thomas, in the USVI, is looking mighty good about now. Ah, but we will be warm and sunny again by the weekend here. All will be well. For now. For us.

If you live in the far north, or even north of I-10, you might want to take a very serious look around you. Three seasons a year, you’ve got a good thing going, but winter is not your friend. Please don’t mistake it for one. And always remember: The Sunshine State awaits!

One more thing: if you still haven't found that perfect gift for the holidays, Peak of the Devil is on sale for just $12.95, free shipping and guaranteed delivery before December 25 if you order by December 21. Simply click here and we'll get it for you.

Peak oil and a new generation gap

I think we need to talk about the generation gap here for a minute. I say that after doing a couple of book signings and noticing a couple of things. At my first signing, the crowd was mostly older people – people over 40. The young guy in the crowd, maybe in his early thirties, was the one that commandeered the room to share with us the joys of T. Boone Pickins and how T. Boone was going to save us all with natural gas, so no worries.

A few days later, at a book store, I was accosted right off the bat by a twenty-something who offered me a major sneer for not having, on my person, irrefutable scientific evidence that the Alberta tar sands operation was bad for the environment. My fault for positioning myself at a table between him and the coffee bar. He was obviously inconvenienced by having to walk around me. My bad. Won’t happen again.

Nevertheless, I’m sensing a trend here: Older people (over 40, let’s say), do seem far more willing to accept and understand the idea of peak oil and the massive era of change that we are facing. Young people, not so much. But why? Even older people, baby boomers mostly, have lived their entire lives in the lap of luxurious oil. I know I have. Sure, we remember when the phone was bolted to the wall and you actually had to dial it. I, personally, remember when the TV only got three channels (if we were lucky) and they all went off at night. Can you imagine? Still, even then, we knew we had it made. We had a ’58 Pontiac Chieftain, for cryin’ out loud. So why can’t the younger generation see that we have a problem now? And why are the older among us more willing to accept the idea of peak oil and the coming change?

Maybe it’s the level, intensity and total intrusion of “modern life” on the younger among us. They have always had cell phones and techno-gadgets and it’s entirely possible that they have never even seen a manual transmission car. Televisions hard-wired for 500 channels 24/7 are the norm. Radio is beamed from satellites and the Internet is everywhere. The Chieftain didn’t even have seat belts. But Alvin Toffler was wrong.

Toffler wrote Future Shock, a book about how technology will overwhelm the people of the future. Nope, didn’t happen. Sorry, Al. We have willingly absorbed and embraced technology at a stunning rate. Yes, even me. I’m typing this on a laptop computer with wireless Internet capability that can, at the push of a button, connect me with the world. Sure didn’t see THAT coming back when I was in high school — but here it is, and I have a handle on it. No biggie. Maybe Toffler and I need to get together and write the sequel to his book: Retro Shock. That’s what’s coming. Are you ready?

Future technology is not going to trip us up, but the future loss of oil and natural gas will send us reeling. As our lifestyles go back in time to find a sort of low-energy stability, we will have to abandon much for what we have today — much of what we take for granted will have to be given up. All of the easy stuff. Our “anytime, anywhere” lives will have to be planned far in advance, to allow for the much lower levels of energy available. Even robot maids take power. You wait, kid, you’ll see. It’s going to be interesting to see how people (and which people) adapt to the changes brought on by peak oil in the years ahead. Young or old, no one gets a pass on this. Everyone is going to have to play.

So, what's your plan?

I had a great kick off last month with my first book signing for Peak of the Devil at the Dunedin (Florida) public library. There was a lively crowd and we had a lot of fun. The event coordinator’s mother (age 93) was there early, stayed late, and was a joy to talk to both before and after the event. I spoke for about a half-hour or so and then took questions. And boy, did the crowd have questions. Mostly, they had very good questions. Mostly.

At some point toward the end of the evening, a fellow about four rows back wanted to make sure I knew that T. Boone Pickens was going to save America by converting the nation’s entire trucking fleet to natural gas. I tried to point out that natural gas was simply another non-renewable natural resource, and that it would seem unlikely that the trucking industry (not to mention the fuel industry) would embrace T. Boone’s cunning plan.

He would hear none of it. T. Boone was All That to him, and T. Boone was going to save us. (The “T.” stands for Thomas, by the way.) There was no arguing with him, so I didn’t. I couldn’t. I’ve seen this near-religious devotion to Mr. Pickens before. He’s sort of like a Basset-faced Ron Paul in that regard. I do find that sort of unquestioning devotion odd, to say the least, and expect a religion to pop up around the both of them any minute now, if it hasn’t already. Of course my wife, the lovely and ever-supportive JoAnn, was in the last row, well behind this guy, quite literally doubled over in her chair laughing. I just love it when I can bring a smile to her face. I live for those warm moments. But I couldn’t look at her without cracking up myself. Thank you, my dear.

Friends, I honestly do not believe that Mister Thomas Boone Pickens is going to save America. T. Boone’s number one goal in life is to take good care of T. Boone. Period. The man did not make his considerable fortune by being magnanimous. I do not believe that natural gas is going to save us, but yes, I do worry about the nation’s trucking industry. We rely on those long-haul trucks for just about everything. We really are going to need them, as it doesn’t look as though we’re going to get our ducks lined up when it comes to upgrading the nation’s rail system, which would help take the burden off the truckers as diesel fuel gets both expensive and scarce. (Trains offer a far more efficient tons-hauled-per mile than trucks.) I just don’t see the trucking industry converting to natural gas any time soon. Like, ever. Sorry, T. Boone.

Do I recall correctly that liquefied natural gas, as used in converted motor vehicles, contains less energy per volume than gasoline? That a vehicle running on said gas gets worse fuel economy because of it? If so, it makes no sense at all to convert from one depleting natural resource to another you’d need more of just to break even. I seriously doubt we are in any position to ramp up our natural gas extraction to be able to supply the trucking industry on a scale that would do any good, and I’m not even getting into the annoyance of converting a portion of the nation’s fuel delivery infrastructure (gas stations and truck stops) to be able to fill up all of those trucks with LNG nationwide. It would be a nightmare. Of course, ol’ T. Boone wraps it all up in Old Glory and says we have to stop buying oil from people that hate us and declare our energy independence. At least he got that part right, but I also suspect that it will happen soon enough no matter what we do. Peak oil, remember? Yeah, peak oil.

Oh, and the punch line to the evening: The noisy guy didn’t even buy a book. Big shock there, huh?