Oil embargo on the horizon?

Could it be déjà vu all over again? It very well could. The big deal right now in the United Nations is the idea of recognizing Palestine as a new member of the UN. This is fast becoming a Big Deal, and it could become a big deal gone bad if the UN votes to admit them and the US vetoes that vote. (Somehow, the US apparently has that power.) The brown and squishy would hit the revolving blades right quick like after that. Be ready to duck.

One entirely possible scenario would be a repeat of the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973/74. For those of you a bit foggy on your 70s history (and honestly, who isn’t?), Saudi Arabia, in the fall of 1973, took exception to the US and western Europe backing Israel and stopped shipping oil to one and all. That they withheld five percent of the world’s available oil resulted in a quadrupling of the price of oil. Geez-o-Pete, did we have fun.

If you read my short story, “60 Days Next Year”, posted on the New Colonist web site, much of what I put in that story actually happened all over the US in the winter of 1973/74 as we all scrambled to keep on keeping on. It got ugly blindingly fast. And it could again. All we have to do is be a booger when the time comes.

Twenty-eight years ago, America went to voluntary gas rationing. We used an even/odd system, based on your license plate’s last digit. If your plate ended in an even number, or A through M, you got to buy gas on an even numbered day. If your plate ended in an odd number or N through Z, you bought gas on an odd numbered day. It was a simple system, and it drove us nuts. Sure, you could buy gas every other day, but then again, you also couldn’t buy gas every other day. We went crazy.

People were stealing plates so they’d have one of each. Gas stations were limiting how much you could buy, and if you weren’t a regular customer, you couldn’t buy from them at all. Lines for gas stretched around the block. People followed the gas tanker trucks to see where they were going. It was loopy. And we could go right back to that if we press our luck here real soon.

I am not going to get into a political discussion here about whether or not I think the UN should admit Palestine. I’m pretty sure they’ve admitted worse. I am, and will freely admit to being, a big fan of Israel. Still, I think the US can both back Israel and allow Palestine to be a part of one of the most ineffective organizations on earth. Why not? What does misery love?

But do keep an eye on this one, as a veto by the US will most definitely kick US/Arab relations right in the ol’ camel saddle.

Keep your bike tires pumped.  

It's just a phase we're going through...

Saw an article in the newspaper the other day about how we are running out of helium. My sympathy to Simon, Theodore and Alvin. The funny thing was, as I read the surprisingly lengthy article, I could see where you could easily cross out “helium” and pencil in “oil” and the article would be just as valid. It’s always seemed odd to me that the fact that we are running out of oil has never really been big news. No idea why. You’d think it would. It should.

The thing is, what was being said about helium, and what could be said about oil, could also be said about every non-renewable natural resource on, or in, earth. With seven billion people milling around on the big blue marble, we are using up stuff like mad. So yeah, a lot of it is going to run out. Not just the oil and helium.

Richard Heinberg did his very best to warn us with his book, Peak Everything (New Society Publishers, 2010). Obviously, Mister Heinberg is not one to beat around the bush. Rather than try to list everything that we risk using up without replacement, it might be easier to list the stuff we won’t run out of. Let’s see… I’ve got that short list here somewhere… on a very small piece of paper. Ah, here we go:

Solar power, wind power, and, um, yeah, well, I told you it’s a short list. There are many things we do and use now that we will always be able to do to some degree, but maybe not to the huge degree we do now. Like travel. Like farming. Once we use up all of the natural non-renewable resources, human enterprise will sort of stumble into its next phase: The “re-use it or lose it” phase. We are currently wrapping up the “we got it all!” phase, having managed to drag ourselves out of the “hunter-gatherer” phase awhile back. Don’t worry, it’s just a phase we’re going through.

With few exceptions, earth’s natural resources are a sort of use-once proposition. Oil, natural gas, coal, uranium, helium, you name it, you use it- but only one time. After that, it’s gone forever. We do have some stuff we can reuse, like water. And we can plant more crops to grow more food, but with less help from oil, et cetera, we’ll get less food with every round. We are running headlong into an era of less, even as we demand more. It’s going to be an epic train wreck. Assuming we’ll still have fuel for the train. (Okay, so maybe it won’t be a train wreck. Maybe the train will simply roll to a silent halt.)

There’s really no way for you to truly prepare for this sort of thing. We will deplete our natural resources over the years, decades and centuries. But we already see it begin. We are about out of helium. The Chipmunks will finally reach puberty. Oil will get iffy and the ten thousand other things we extract from the earth will be a little less plentiful every year. Little by little, over time, we will be nibbled to death by ducks.

But hey, did we have some fun there for awhile or WHAT?!

Kids today . . .

Kids today. Sheesh. There, I said it. I’m officially a geezer. Still: Kids today. Sheesh. So I’m out in the garage the other day, fussing with bicycles. That’s what I do. Everybody knows it. People bring their bikes by, and I try to fix them. Most times, I do. Hang on a minute, the phone’s ringing…

Ok, where was I? Oh, yeah: So the other day, this boy stops by. He’s fourteen, maybe fifteen. In high school. Six feet tall, and riding a bike built for someone shorter than me. Fine. What’s the problem? The seat’s loose. Excuse me? The seat is loose. Can you tighten it? Yeah, I can do that. I can do that blindfolded. Without looking, I reach into my wrench drawer and pull out the correct 14mm combination wrench. A couple of good tugs on the seat bolt and she’s snug. Done. That quick. The kid rides off happy and I stand there pondering the fate of kids today. Sheesh.

So yeah, I’ll admit that I can’t operate about 100% of the techno gizmos on the market today. I don’t even have a cell phone. The youth of today are ahead of me there, but: The kid couldn’t scrounge up a wrench to tighten his own seat?  What’s the world coming to? Are we evolving, if that’s the right word, into a people that can no longer do anything? Are all physical and mechanical skills slowly being phased out in place of phone apps? Are we going to end up as fat blobs staring at small screens? Oh, wait, we’re mostly already there. Never mind.

I ride my bicycle around town, and I see a lot, but let me tell you what I don’t see so much any more: Work benches and tools in garages. I’d say less than one garage in a hundred is set up for someone to actually do something in there. For the most part, garages in America today are simply cheap storage facilities. Some of them even have room for a car. My garage holds about 30 bikes and trikes, two motorcycles, two motor scooters, a pick up truck, and ten foot long workbench with a bench grinder on one end and a drill press on the other. And a ton of tools. Probably literally. My man cave rocks. 

I like working with my hands. I like to fuss with bikes and I like to build stuff. I like to make noise and make sawdust and at the end of the day, I like to have to really work at it to get my hands clean. That makes me feel like I did more than stare at a screen all day. (As I stare at my computer screen right here right now.) Do they even teach “Shop” in school any more? I took years of it, and I’m very glad I did.

My Dad was a carpenter before he joined the Army, and he always had a well equipped workshop no matter where he lived. I continue that tradition, and with many of his original tools. I know how to sharpen a drill bit. I know how to sharpen a saw. And I do. In this modern, disposable society we are fast loosing the craft workers and trade skills that we need to keep it all running. People don’t fix things any more. They simply buy new, then pay to have it installed. I can’t do as much as I used to, but I still do what I can.

But what of the kids I see? The ones that can’t tighten a bolt? Will the physical world mean that little in the coming years? I don’t think so. I think it will still be important, if not vital, for a person to be able to do real things with real tools themselves. And it looks as though no one is teaching that any more. Too bad. You can’t drive a nail with your cell phone, kid.

Oh, and that phone call earlier? Neighborhood kid. A different one this time. His handlebars were loose. Could I tighten them? Kids today. Sheesh.