Kill your car?!

Well, maybe not quite yet. ABC Radio National host Robyn Williams posed the question the other day: “(Is this) the beginning of the end for cars?” Good question, Robyn. With gas prices going for all-time highs here in the U.S. this summer, I suspect more and more people might be waking up and taking a much harder look at that big hulking hunk of steel in their garage. But are the car’s days truly numbered?

Right around the turn of the the last century (1900), the automobile was still an experimental rich man’s toy. (And yeah, a toy for experimental rich men.) They were expensive and weird and uncommon until after World War One, and before that, seeing one was An Event. By the time we got through World War Two, the automobile was as much a part of the American Scene as Americans themselves. We became, in every way, a Car Culture. And we still are. But will that - could that - come to an end? Maybe later.

With the subject of this blog and my book being peak oil, we have to consider the possibility. Well, I do. You can go watch Hamster Dance again if you want. (I love those little fuzzballs!) Ok, focus… cars… oil. Oh, yeah. So here’s the deal: Yes, the car is in a tough spot right now. Gas is pricey, and quite likely to get more so, and most unlikely to get cheap any time soon. Like, ever again. I’ve long said that the private automobile is not the highest, best use for oil, and I still know that to be true. But there are far worse things we do with oil. There are definitely a few other things that should fall by the wayside first.

Let’s start with the entire commercial airline industry. If the average airliner holds 200 passengers, how many of them really had to make that trip by plane? How many of them really had to get there that fast? I’m guessing pretty much none of them. The airline industry is this coal mine’s canary when it comes to oil. They will be about the first big industry to die. If you hold any airline stock, last year would be a good time to sell it.

Then there’s the cruise industry. At least the airlines go some place. Cruise ships just go out and come back. Sure, they’re fun and exotic and fattening, a great combination, but geez, Louise - look at all the oil going out that smokestack! How long can they keep that up? And wouldn’t a sailing ship make more sense? (And be way cooler?) Yo-ho.

When it comes to just going out and back, private aircraft are often little more than oil-burning ego trips. Literally. More often than not, a private plane takes off and lands at the same airport. They go up, they fly around for a bit, they come back, and they didn’t do a darned thing but burn fuel the whole time. Yeah, that was a great use of oil. Go team.

When I moved to Florida in 1969, the causeways were lined with Hobie Cat sailboats. They were (and still are) the very definition of cool on water to me. Hobie Adler is a genius, and you can tell him I said so if you see him. The thing is, those cats take some skill to sail. Done right, they are fast and a thing of beauty in motion. Done wrong, and they are upside down, (but easily righted). You don’t see too many Hobie Cats out there these days, and I honestly believe that is our loss.

Now it’s all about jet skis, and they suck. Well, they both suck and blow. They suck down oil and gas, and they blow out nasty fumes. And they go nowhere. Where the folks with the Hobies would get out there and go places, the jet skis mostly do circles about 100 yards offshore and that’s it. Whadda waste. I missed seeing the colorful sails and the flying hulls. But it gets worse.

Leaf blowers. There, I said it. The absolute worst possible use for our precious remaining oil resources are the legions of idiotic, noisy gas-powered leaf blowers that rack and ruin the gentle ambiance of every suburban neighborhood every freaking weekend. And I don’t just say that because I like to take afternoon naps. (Well, ok, I sort of do.) Still, leaf blowers are an insane waste of energy. They do nothing; they just blow stuff around. Stuff you should maybe have raked up instead. Duh. I will be so glad when they are gone. Party at my place. Seriously.

Ah, but the car? (Remember? The car?) Well, there’s a good chance all of this other stuff will fall by the wayside long before you see your last car drive by. What began as a rich man’s toy more than a hundred years ago, will go back to being a rich man’s toy in the next hundred years. The automobile’s general, everyday use will drop, and people will adapt and find other ways to get around - or stay home - but the car will be with us, in some fashion, for quite some time, I suspect. And I’m ok with that.

That means I might still, some day, own an Avanti. Cool.

A World With Less Oil: Are you prepared?

Sometimes, if I’m paying attention, I get to see small glimpses of our future. They are always fleeting and soon gone, but I see them, sometimes at the outer edge of my vision. And maybe that’s how the future arrives: in bits and pieces, a little at a time, starting out around the edges.

I open the garage door and walk outside on a Sunday morning around sun-up. No traffic on Lake Avenue. No planes in the sky. Not a single unnatural noise. It is, for just a very short time before the world of man wakes up, a silent world without oil. Very nice.

The pump nozzles are bagged - the universal sign of “No Gas”. There are a dozen different reasons why that may be, but there it is: A gasless gas station, and maybe for a day or so, a glimpse of our future. Contrary to popular belief, I do not smile at this.

I stop to watch a group of cyclists pass me headed south to the park. They are not bike racers, just everyday people on everyday bikes, out for a ride. I like that. I expect to see more of that in the future. I do see more people riding with shopping bags these days, both empty and full, doing their errands a la velo. I like that a lot.

There in the grocery store - that fellow with bands around his pant cuffs, wearing fingerless cycling gloves and a bike helmet, with a backpack for the groceries. Oh, wait - that’s me. Well, it’s still a glimpse of the future for all of us, if we’re lucky.

I’ve been pleasantly surprised that my little oil book, Peak of the Devil, hasn’t caught more flack than it has for being an overly-optimistic (and overly simplistic) look at what must surely be our very bleak future. I tried to make it as ungrim as I could, considering how very grim it may turn out to be. And I do like the idea of us maybe being able to get by on much less than we have now - and maybe our lives will be better for it. But we need to start now.

We each need to understand what it is that we do that we won’t be doing later. That conspicuous consumption brought on by presumptive entitlement (didn’t know I knew the big words, did ya?) is going to hang like a rotting albatross around the necks of people too stubborn to adapt. You need to know this: It’s going to change. Be a good scout. Be prepared. Be prepared before you have to be prepared.

This past weekend, I hosted a Tweed Ride for my 60th Birthday. We rode our vintage English three-speeds out to the Safety Harbor Spa for tea and crumpets. Pinkies out. I had knickers made for the occasion. I wore a bow tie and a jaunty cap. And if this humble little ride is a glimpse of what is to come, of a world with less oil, then our future might not be quite so unpleasant as many, myself included, would have you believe. Next week we'll do it again in St. Pete.

Keep your bike tires pumped.

Democracy and Oil: All Eyes on Libya

So finally, after I thought it was too late, the good guys got together and decided maybe they wouldn’t let Mummar Q. just go right ahead and kill everyone in Libya anyway. Thanks, guys - but why did it take you so long??? Geesh.

Okay, so now Libya is more of a police action. Not a war, exactly. It was a civil war, but now some other countries have decided to help keep the rebels from being totally decimated, so what have we got here? A skirmish? A hot bed? Whatever it is, it ain’t Viet Nam in a cat box. It will be over and done and soon. I hope. All concerned have promised air support, but not boots on the ground. Again: I hope.

Right now, 7 p.m. Sunday night, March 20, 2010, oil is at $102.87. That’s about where it’s been for awhile, dancing all around the $100 mark for weeks. I guess if it goes really badly in Libya we might see the price of oil climb, but then again, if the future of Libya involves the development of a stable democracy, that might not be so bad for the price of oil in the long run. And I’m all for that.

Contrary to popular opinion, I am not rooting for the end of the world. I don’t want to see the price of oil go through the roof. I drive a pickup truck. A big one. I don’t mow my yard with a goat. I’m currently paying $3.51 a gallon for gas, and that’s quite high enough, thank you very much.

Now here’s hoping Libya gets new management, and the new guys are smarter than the last guy. “Arab democracy” . . . man, there’s a new phrase. I like it. Could the Middle East be the new hotbed of democracy, with Egypt and Libya leading the way? Whooo-eeeee. I can’t wait to see what tomorrow brings.

Like I said: Here’s hoping.

Oil prices up, gas prices up - What can you do?

So here we have Libya and Saudi Arabia, two very different countries that both produce enough oil for each to export a fair amount, and both are in the news these days. Libya, the lesser of the two when it comes to oil production, has been run for some 40 years by a raving lunatic with serious fashion (and reality) issues. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is run by a very large royal family that I’d swear all look exactly alike.

Libya is in the midst of a rebellion/civil war these days that has caused the price of oil to rise. Libya is beset by what is termed, in the oil game, “above ground factors” – that is to say, people. Personally, I’m all for rebellion in Libya. It’s high time they boosted ol’ Mummar right off the longest dock in Tripoli. Do NOT make us send in the Marines. Again. But above ground factors are just that: Stuff we cause – and can fix – ourselves.

The Saudis are up against a far more solid wall: Below ground factors. As their production falls, they might do everything they can and still they may not be able to maintain their current level of oil production in the years ahead, let alone increase production to make up for the shortfall in Libya, or anywhere else. They day they admit that publicly, if they ever do, will be a red-letter day for oil. And a bad day for the rest of us.

I saw a wonderful quote today about the price of gasoline. The writer said the price of gasoline is not set by what it cost to produce, but what it will cost to replace. Wow. Great quote there. So look for the price of gas to go up. Maybe a lot. A friend of mine that owns a gas station said today that he expects to see four-dollar gas by the end of March. And that’s a full two months before the traditional start of the North American Driving Season that starts on Memorial Day weekend and runs through Labor Day weekend. Will we see five-dollar gas across the US this year? My Magic 8 Ball says “OUTLOOK GOOD”.

So what are you going to do about it? Don’t bother with any sort of boycott or “gas out” you may hear about. They don’t work. Even if you don’t buy the gas, someone else will. It’s a global commodity. And please don’t go and protest the price of gas at your local gas station. It’s not their fault. Often, it’s not even their gas. They just sell it on consignment, and make very little, if anything on it.

Do you really want to protest the high price of gas? Then you’re going to have to get proactive and seriously radical. You’re going to have to think outside the box, break all the rules and answer to no one. You’re gonna have to be a loner, march to your own drum and make a statement.

You’re gonna have to ride a bicycle.

Peak Oil Faithful

Some time ago, someone commenting on one of my blogs here made the observation that believing in the theory of peak oil was, to many of the believers, rather like a religion. I thought it was an interesting thing to say, and it stuck with me. It sticks still. But is it a valid observation?

I am probably the last person on earth to try to define what is, or is not, a religion. Or maybe I’m the perfect person, as I am situated so far from the action. How do you even go about defining religion? It has beliefs, certainly, and these beliefs must be taken on faith. They are, by definition, unprovable. And my spell check is telling me that “unprovable” is not a real word, so I’m taking that on faith as well.

A religion must have a back story – a history of existence. There must be something to be said about it. Now here’s the kick in the pants: You can have a religion without a god. Buddhism and Taoism, both fine, great and honorable religions of Very Long Standing, do not seem to address the idea of, let’s say, the whole shebang being slapped up by an old guy in a robe with a long white beard who looks a lot like Robert Crumb’s Mister Natural. (And who, by the way, recently put out a stunning illustrated Book of Genesis – I kid you not.) Ah, but we are drifting far afield. (And there goes that cursed spell check again. So now “afield” is not a word? Geesh.) (Oh, and “Geesh, too.) Focus, man, focus! Is peak oil a religion?

Well, let’s see: It has its core belief that oil production peaks, and then declines. Sort of like death after life. OK, check that one off the list. How about a back story? Got it covered: Marion King Hubbert came up with the theory over fifty years ago, and it has played out in field after field, so we have both back story and miracles all lined up. And we got us a jen-you-wine prophet in Hubbert his bad self. He’s even dead, as most good prophets tend to be.

And you have to take it on faith. You have to believe that Hubbert was right, and you have to have faith that yes, some day, oil will peak and then decline, never to rise again. Sorry, Lazarus. Not this time. While many detractors point to the receding horizon of the actual claimed event of peak oil as proof that it is a false religion, we are still working in a very short time frame as religions go. Months and years, instead of centuries. You gotta learn to have a little patience. All things come to those who wait. Or go away, if you are a peak oiler.

Now here’s the funny thing: If peak oil is a religion, if you’re going to call it that, then you also have to call the Cornucopians, who don’t believe we will see a peak to oil production, a religion as well. (They even have a sort of religiousy name.) The Cornos (just to give my spell check another spit-spewing spasms), take it on faith that big oil and technology will save us all, whether you are believer or not. (At least they aren’t picky about who they save.) They proudly point to the oil industry’s history of always being able to find more oil, and always being able to deliver the goods. So far. Okay, you can’t argue track record. You can’t buck history. But history ain’t the future, Spanky.

The guy that originally brought up this whole “peak oil as a religion” thing did so to make the point that peak oilers were a rather intolerant lot, and not prone to hear the other guys’ side of the story. They don’t care much for dissension in their ranks, but then again, that can be said of just about any group of humans on earth, religious or not. No one likes to have to argue their beliefs. We each believe what we believe, and my beliefs are not yours. Yours are not mine. And that’s ok. It all comes down to Russell’s Teapot versus The Flying Spaghetti Monster: Just because you can’t prove me wrong doesn’t mean I’m right. Just because I can’t prove myself to be right doesn’t mean I’m wrong. Only time will judge both sides of the case and offer a ruling. Eventually. Maybe.

When it comes right down to it, both sides of this coin are taking it on faith. Both have to believe what they think is right. But no matter what they do believe, in the end, only one of them goes home a winner.

I think I’ll stick with Lao Tzu.

WikiLeaks Exposes Peak Oil Reality

Oh, geez, Lousie: Here we go. WikiLeaks just pulled the rug out from under the Saudis by publishing the contents of some cables about their oil production — and the fragility thereof. The potential lack thereof. Where have I heard this before? Let me think . . . Oh, yeah, just about everywhere. For years. The only difference is, this comes from the Kingdom itself. This is not good. This is bad, even. Very, very bad.

Look, it’s one thing for a guy like me to sit on the other side of the world and speculate on what might be happening, oil-wise, in the Empty Quarter of the Arabian Peninsula. I’m speculating. That’s a nice word for guessing. I’m making it all up. But as it turns out, I was guessing right. So were a lot of other people, as it turns out. Everyone but the Saudis, it seems. For years (for decades), the Saudis have stood there and smiled and said there were no problems. Everything is fine. Don’t worry. Be happy. And for all of those years, we bought the act. We wanted to buy the act. We had to buy the act.

Back in 2001, I wrote Ghawar is Dying, a short essay for The New Colonist web site, outlining how the beginning of the end might, well, begin. I caught some flak from oil types for it. They wanted to know how I gained access to the restricted oil fields in the middle of the Saudi desert. They were not happy, and I don’t think they believed me when I said I’d never been there. I made the whole thing up, but as it turns out, I think I might have been right. And that was ten years ago.

In 2004 I wrote Sixty Days Next Year, also for my good friends over at The New Colonist. The fictitious events in “60 Days” have yet to come true, but the headlines of the past few weeks out of Egypt show that all things are possible in a great big hurry, and those 60 days could start tomorrow. Please, just remember: I was never there and it’s not my fault. Seriously. It was supposed to be fiction.

If the cables exposed by WikiLeaks portend events yet to come, as in coming soon, we are all in for a wild, wild ride. If the Saudis can’t smooth this one over, we are staring the great peak oil monster right in the face; and buddy, whatever you do, don’t blink. If the Saudis admit they are facing peak oil production, we may see the price of oil rise like a bottle rocket. I remember the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973. The loss of just 5% of the world’s oil supply caused the price of oil to quadruple. Quadruple. With oil bouncing around $90 when I checked it the other day, are you ready for $360 oil? No. No you aren’t. No one is.

Best case scenario: The Saudis do what the Saudis do better than anyone else on earth: They smooth it over. They schmooze. They smile and talk their way out of it. And in all honest, I do sincerely hope they can. Worst case scenario: Gasoline in the United States goes to over $10 a gallon in very short order, and is rationed like you wouldn’t believe. I remember the gas lines in ’73. I drove a VW back then, so it was no big deal. This time around, it will be different. It won’t be a four-month political event. It will be permanent.

My advice to you: If you don’t have a good, practical bicycle, go buy one, and soon. If you do have a bicycle, go buy baskets for it, fenders, a good lock and some lights. And buy a bicycle helmet, rain cape and cycling gloves while you’re at it. You are going to want all of that, and very soon. I hope I’m wrong. I hope the Saudis can schmooze their way out of this one, as they have in the past. But if they can’t?

Welcome to our brave new world. Just don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Meatspace redux

After my rant about the importance of Meatspace, I have to say that yes, I do spend a fair amount of time in that alternate universe that is Cyberspace. In years past, I have been a regular on a very small number of forums, my all time favorite being a sort of general discussion forum hosted by my good friend Mahatma Randy. His was something of an invitation-only cybergathering, and was quite the crowd of entertaining literates. I miss it still and think about it often.

With the melt-down of Matt Savinar’s “Life After The Oil Crash” (LATOC) forum, I was lucky enough to have been found and directed over to its predecessor, The Oil Age forum at www.theoilage.com. This new forum is home to many of my friends from the old LATOC forum, and as you know, it’s always good to be among friends. If you have an interest in peak oil (and the fact that you are here, reading this, would indicate that you do), I recommend that you have a look at The Oil Age forum. No, you don’t have to read the whole thing. I sure don’t. I try to keep an eye on the peak oil breaking news and the general discussion forums, just to keep up with what’s happening back in Meatspace with regard to global oil.

For my bicycling news, I trust my friend Jack Sweeney and all of the good folks over at www.bikecommuters.com. I like to stop by there and see what’s new and who’s doing what where on a bicycle these days. It’s not exactly a forum, but you can post comments at the end of each entry. (Kinda like here.) Whenever I need an attitude adjustment, and need to go to My Happy Place, I dial in www.3speedtour.com. Ahhhhhh….. Now that’s what I want my whole world to look like every day.

And, of course, the other place I am is here. Each of my more-or-less weekly blogs on this site has a comments section at the end, and with the help of my ever-vigilant publisher, I do try to jump in and comment where comment is needed. But wait, there’s more. . . .

If you need to, you can always email me. I'm at chip.haynes@yahoo.com and I try to answer my email every day, except on days that I don’t.

Baby, it's cold outside

Ok, so it’s cold here right now. I did not come down here for this. I live in west central Florida (Clearwater), and they’re talking about it being down in the thirties here for a couple of nights. Yeah, I know, compared to, say, Minnesota, this ain’t so bad. Balmy, even. By the end of the week, it will be back up in the 70s, so I’m not complaining, but still…

So what do you suppose will happen up north when natural gas and heating oil start to get too expensive, and then become unavailable in the coming years? How long would your house be inhabitable in the winter when the power goes off? These are not idle questions. Of the four seasons, there’s one that can kill you. What’s it like where you live in the winter? And is it worth the risk? It’s not like you’re going to get much of a warning on this, you know. (Well, other than me. Here. Now.)

In his book, The Adjustment, Charles MacArthur wrote of the disaster that befalls the New York metro area when the power grid fails totally in the middle of a February blizzard. It is a stark and sobering look at just how fast it can all go so very badly when the power goes off in deep winter — especially in a big city. A matter of hours. Maybe minutes. In his novel, Charles writes of an immediate and mass migration south, by any means necessary. Not everyone makes it. I think he got that part absolutely right as well. I do expect to see people moving to Florida in record numbers as the north (the Midwest and the northeast) becomes more difficult and less comfortable in the years ahead, all in the aftermath of peak oil and declining natural gas supplies. Lacking power and heat, I would expect Canada to be emptied out in fairly short order — and I wouldn’t blame them one bit. It gets cold up there, I hear.

Sometimes I wonder if a slow decline in energy resources is worse than a sudden crash. Slow declines tend to offer hope — it might not be that bad — we might turn it around — maybe it’s gonna be okay. With a fast crash, you know you’re pooched and you have to deal with it Right Now. Fast is a great motivator.

Until last winter, I said I never knew why anyone would live north of I-10. We had such a long, cold winter here last year, I’ve amended that to I-4. Another bad one and I’m dropping it down to Alligator Alley. And St. Thomas, in the USVI, is looking mighty good about now. Ah, but we will be warm and sunny again by the weekend here. All will be well. For now. For us.

If you live in the far north, or even north of I-10, you might want to take a very serious look around you. Three seasons a year, you’ve got a good thing going, but winter is not your friend. Please don’t mistake it for one. And always remember: The Sunshine State awaits!

One more thing: if you still haven't found that perfect gift for the holidays, Peak of the Devil is on sale for just $12.95, free shipping and guaranteed delivery before December 25 if you order by December 21. Simply click here and we'll get it for you.

Peak oil and a new generation gap

I think we need to talk about the generation gap here for a minute. I say that after doing a couple of book signings and noticing a couple of things. At my first signing, the crowd was mostly older people – people over 40. The young guy in the crowd, maybe in his early thirties, was the one that commandeered the room to share with us the joys of T. Boone Pickins and how T. Boone was going to save us all with natural gas, so no worries.

A few days later, at a book store, I was accosted right off the bat by a twenty-something who offered me a major sneer for not having, on my person, irrefutable scientific evidence that the Alberta tar sands operation was bad for the environment. My fault for positioning myself at a table between him and the coffee bar. He was obviously inconvenienced by having to walk around me. My bad. Won’t happen again.

Nevertheless, I’m sensing a trend here: Older people (over 40, let’s say), do seem far more willing to accept and understand the idea of peak oil and the massive era of change that we are facing. Young people, not so much. But why? Even older people, baby boomers mostly, have lived their entire lives in the lap of luxurious oil. I know I have. Sure, we remember when the phone was bolted to the wall and you actually had to dial it. I, personally, remember when the TV only got three channels (if we were lucky) and they all went off at night. Can you imagine? Still, even then, we knew we had it made. We had a ’58 Pontiac Chieftain, for cryin’ out loud. So why can’t the younger generation see that we have a problem now? And why are the older among us more willing to accept the idea of peak oil and the coming change?

Maybe it’s the level, intensity and total intrusion of “modern life” on the younger among us. They have always had cell phones and techno-gadgets and it’s entirely possible that they have never even seen a manual transmission car. Televisions hard-wired for 500 channels 24/7 are the norm. Radio is beamed from satellites and the Internet is everywhere. The Chieftain didn’t even have seat belts. But Alvin Toffler was wrong.

Toffler wrote Future Shock, a book about how technology will overwhelm the people of the future. Nope, didn’t happen. Sorry, Al. We have willingly absorbed and embraced technology at a stunning rate. Yes, even me. I’m typing this on a laptop computer with wireless Internet capability that can, at the push of a button, connect me with the world. Sure didn’t see THAT coming back when I was in high school — but here it is, and I have a handle on it. No biggie. Maybe Toffler and I need to get together and write the sequel to his book: Retro Shock. That’s what’s coming. Are you ready?

Future technology is not going to trip us up, but the future loss of oil and natural gas will send us reeling. As our lifestyles go back in time to find a sort of low-energy stability, we will have to abandon much for what we have today — much of what we take for granted will have to be given up. All of the easy stuff. Our “anytime, anywhere” lives will have to be planned far in advance, to allow for the much lower levels of energy available. Even robot maids take power. You wait, kid, you’ll see. It’s going to be interesting to see how people (and which people) adapt to the changes brought on by peak oil in the years ahead. Young or old, no one gets a pass on this. Everyone is going to have to play.

Green gas (station)? Good Grief!

Charlie Brown said it best, and with feeling: “Good grief.” My lovely wife made sure I saw an article in the paper this week about a “green” gas station. And no, I don’t mean that’s the color they painted the building. They do honestly believe they have an environmentally conscientious gas station. And they say that with a straight face. Good grief, indeed.

The commercial establishment of note is the Bayshore Breeze Mobil station, on the northwest corner of Alt. US 19 and Curlew Road in north Dunedin, Florida. Having just undergone a major renovation, the rebuilt structure has attained a “green business certification” from something called the Green Business League. (I’m picturing something akin to the Munchkins’ Lollipop League, but maybe a little taller.) All I can offer in their defense, and it isn’t much, is this: It’s not really a gas station anymore. It was before they rebuilt it. It had repair bays and broken cars parked around it and mechanics and everything a real gas station is supposed to have. Now it’s just a convenience store with gas pumps. But is it green?

“What makes the gas station green,” the article states, “is in the details.” Such as? All gas appliances, they say. Since when is natural gas green? It’s a non-renewable natural resource like oil and uranium. I could never figure out why we call it “natural gas.” As opposed to what? We don’t call it natural coal or natural oil, do we? Again: Good grief.

The article mentioned that “a special spray foam insulation” was used to insulate the building, but no mention of what it really was. Was it oil-based? No idea. My guess is yes, but who knows? They are using LED lighting and solar tubes – so I’ll give them the “green light” on those. The flooring is made from recycled tires, so they get another greenie point (as opposed to a brownie point) there. They plan to use non-toxic cleaning products, and use the air conditioner’s water run-off for the plants. Sure, why not. But why not design the building to not need the air conditioning in the first place? Ah, well.

The gas station is about nine miles north of me, so I may pedal up that way one day next week and check it out. Hey, I’m all for green – even light green. The article had a photo at the top of the front of the new gas station. The sign above the door reads “Bayshore Breeze Market & Grill.” Some gas station. And you know what I don’t see in the photo? A bike rack.

Some green. MTT279FQ9HAW

So, what's your plan?

I had a great kick off last month with my first book signing for Peak of the Devil at the Dunedin (Florida) public library. There was a lively crowd and we had a lot of fun. The event coordinator’s mother (age 93) was there early, stayed late, and was a joy to talk to both before and after the event. I spoke for about a half-hour or so and then took questions. And boy, did the crowd have questions. Mostly, they had very good questions. Mostly.

At some point toward the end of the evening, a fellow about four rows back wanted to make sure I knew that T. Boone Pickens was going to save America by converting the nation’s entire trucking fleet to natural gas. I tried to point out that natural gas was simply another non-renewable natural resource, and that it would seem unlikely that the trucking industry (not to mention the fuel industry) would embrace T. Boone’s cunning plan.

He would hear none of it. T. Boone was All That to him, and T. Boone was going to save us. (The “T.” stands for Thomas, by the way.) There was no arguing with him, so I didn’t. I couldn’t. I’ve seen this near-religious devotion to Mr. Pickens before. He’s sort of like a Basset-faced Ron Paul in that regard. I do find that sort of unquestioning devotion odd, to say the least, and expect a religion to pop up around the both of them any minute now, if it hasn’t already. Of course my wife, the lovely and ever-supportive JoAnn, was in the last row, well behind this guy, quite literally doubled over in her chair laughing. I just love it when I can bring a smile to her face. I live for those warm moments. But I couldn’t look at her without cracking up myself. Thank you, my dear.

Friends, I honestly do not believe that Mister Thomas Boone Pickens is going to save America. T. Boone’s number one goal in life is to take good care of T. Boone. Period. The man did not make his considerable fortune by being magnanimous. I do not believe that natural gas is going to save us, but yes, I do worry about the nation’s trucking industry. We rely on those long-haul trucks for just about everything. We really are going to need them, as it doesn’t look as though we’re going to get our ducks lined up when it comes to upgrading the nation’s rail system, which would help take the burden off the truckers as diesel fuel gets both expensive and scarce. (Trains offer a far more efficient tons-hauled-per mile than trucks.) I just don’t see the trucking industry converting to natural gas any time soon. Like, ever. Sorry, T. Boone.

Do I recall correctly that liquefied natural gas, as used in converted motor vehicles, contains less energy per volume than gasoline? That a vehicle running on said gas gets worse fuel economy because of it? If so, it makes no sense at all to convert from one depleting natural resource to another you’d need more of just to break even. I seriously doubt we are in any position to ramp up our natural gas extraction to be able to supply the trucking industry on a scale that would do any good, and I’m not even getting into the annoyance of converting a portion of the nation’s fuel delivery infrastructure (gas stations and truck stops) to be able to fill up all of those trucks with LNG nationwide. It would be a nightmare. Of course, ol’ T. Boone wraps it all up in Old Glory and says we have to stop buying oil from people that hate us and declare our energy independence. At least he got that part right, but I also suspect that it will happen soon enough no matter what we do. Peak oil, remember? Yeah, peak oil.

Oh, and the punch line to the evening: The noisy guy didn’t even buy a book. Big shock there, huh?

The Real Problem with Peak Oil

The biggest problem with peak oil isn’t peak oil. It’s us. All of us. All seven billion of us. We have absolutely no Plan B, and too few of us (hardly any of us) understand that time is fast running out for Plan A. I have long said that Americans are lousy planners, but great at responding to a crisis. Man, I sure hope I’m right about that, because we have done zero planning for this one. We are barreling right along into the greatest crisis man has ever had to face, and too many of us (all of us) are flying blind with the throttles wide open. We haven’t got a plan and we haven’t got a clue.

Peak oil is going to catch everyone off base – even people that think they know what’s going on. (I only pretend to know, but at least I know I’m pretending.) None of us have any idea how hard this will hit or when. Too few understand that it will hit at all, and too many still deny it. If my book gets more people interested enough to ask questions, please: ASK QUESTIONS. Ask your local elected and appointed officials: What are they doing to get ready for this? Ask at every level of government: What about peak oil? Chances are you’re going to get little more than a blank stare, a smarmy government smile and an answer that has nothing to do with the question at all. Keep asking. Especially as we go into the next big presidential election cycle for 2012.

The only government in North America I know of right now that has done any serious study at all on peak oil and what they are facing is the City of Portland, Oregon. By all means, do get a copy of the Portland Peak Oil Task Force report and get it into the hands of your local officials. No, they probably won’t read it, but you did what you could. (And do read that report yourself.) The words “peak oil” need to be as annoyingly common as “drill, baby, drill” was awhile back. We need to hear the words “peak oil” being said. A lot.

There is no IQ test to run for public office. (That kind of explains just about everything right there, doesn’t it?) Elected officials are no smarter than the rest of us. (Even being AS smart would be a step in the right direction.) We all use the same Magic 8 Ball to help guide us through life. I do not expect my government to save me from peak oil. I do not expect to be able to save my government from same. But we have to at least try. Make the effort. At least ask.

Oil Cuba China Oil

I’m lousy at predicting the future, but I can tell you with some certainty what’s coming soon in the wacky world of offshore oil. Even though the US government has dropped the ban on offshore drilling in US waters, look for everyone and their sock monkeys to be all up in arms before long over what’s happening south of Key West. And what IS happening south of Key West? They are getting ready to drill for oil off shore. So what’s the problem?

It’s Cuba.

Cuba is in the process of offering up offshore oil leases to foreign countries to begin exploring and drilling for oil off of their northwest coast — the coast closest to Key West. These new offshore rigs have the potential to be as close to Key West as the Deepwater Horizon rig was to Louisiana. The only thing is, these new rigs aren’t going to be run by BP. They will be Chinese.

Now you’d better believe there will be plenty of people on the north side of the Florida Straits all spit-flustered over this one, even though it ain’t our oil and it ain’t our ocean. Their waters, their oil, their call, and there isn’t a thing we can do about it. Jack Kennedy is long gone, and we’re not talking Soviet ICBMs here. Still, too many people here in the US tend to get possessive over anyone’s oil, especially when it’s not ours.

Now there’s no doubt that Cuba could use the oil and the income. Even The Bearded One himself recently admitted that the communist thing wasn’t working so well for them these days. Who knows? Maybe a spanking new oil industry will give them the boost they need to dig themselves out of their own red menace and join the real world, already in progress. That would be cool. A free Cuba would be a dream come true for a great many people. But probably not for the Chinese.

The downside of having the Chinese involved in the Cuban oil industry is their presence in the event of any meaningful change in Cuba. This is setting the stage for a very nasty chess game on a very small board. I can see where China would do all it could to keep Cuba communist to protect their investment in the Cuban oil industry, to the point of sending armed troops. And I think I speak for even the most laid back of Parrotheads when I say that Communist Chinese troops in North America should NOT be taken lightly.

For now, the Cuban oil industry is just getting started. It will take some years for the offshore rigs to be put in place, the wells to be drilled and the oil to be pumped. I would like to think that means there is still time for America to reverse some 60 years of total political idiocy and begin a meaningful dialogue with Cuba that could result in us having some sort of stake and share in what we cannot stop. It’s time for us to grow a brain and treat Cuba with the respect we offer any other country.

Like, say, China.

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Good News, Bad News

Good news: I have more time to ride my bicycle these days. Bad news: I have more time to ride my bicycle. But let me tell you, we are not a nation of good drivers. Out on a bike, you get to see far more cars and drivers than you would if you kept up with traffic, and that is not a good thing. There was a time when we took pride in our driving skills. Those times are gone – long gone. Now driving is just something that happens while we are talking, texting or doing any number of other things we shouldn’t be doing while we are driving. And even if we are doing nothing but driving, we still don’t quite seem to have the hang of it. And yes, I do lump myself in there, but at least I admit I’m not that good.

However, I do notice something every time we see a spike in gas prices: As a gallon of regular gas tops $3.00, people don’t drive cautious – they drive mean. If you're like me, out there on a bicycle, mean is not good. Mean can be deadly. I can’t imagine what I’ll see on the roads if gas goes above $5.00. Or $10.00. Wow. The future’s looking kinda ugly, ain’t it?

But hey, my new book about peak oil, Peak of the Devil, is on sale and I'm doing radio interviews all over North America! Go team! I have a feeling I’m kind of a shock to the talk radio hosts, as I have no fear. None. I spent seven years in tights on the stage at the local Renaissance Festival, juggling machetes, double-blade axes and fire torches. I have nothing to fear from a radio host 3,000 miles away. So if you are up for a giggle, click here to check the schedule on my web site, and tune in if you can.

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Peak of the Devil should be in every public library and recreation centre. It’s a great introduction to the topic. . . .there is much genius within the pages, a great deal of perceptive and subtle thinking.

— Matthew Wild, Energy Bulletin

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Oh, bother.

This coming Thursday, September 30, will be my last day at a job I have held for over twenty-one years. My lay-off has nothing to do with peak oil, but it is still traumatic. Overwhelmingly so. I’m in the process of getting set up to work at home, and my new full-time job is “writer”. (It has been my part-time position up until now.) So, if there’s a slight lag in my blog entries here, please forgive me. If you're really missing me, you might check out my upcoming media schedule because...

In better news, Peak of the Devil will be officially released the following day, this Friday, October First. 10/01/10. Wow. I can’t wait to see how it does and how it is received once it’s out there. And of course I’ll read the reviews on Amazon. (So please be kind.) Is this the right book for the right time? I really do think so. Oil is in the news more and more, and more people are starting to understand that there’s more to the problem than just a spill or two. The big picture is grim, and getting worse. Welcome to the peak of that devil.

As of this morning, I have three more days in my old job. It’s weird. The office vultures have already started to circle, checking out our desks and chairs and stuff — to see what they want to grab before the seat cushions cool off. My cubicle, once festooned with bicycle posters as well as bicycles, is absolutely bare. Most of the drawers are empty. I could, right now, pick up three things, walk out the door and never look back. Except, I have to say, I really liked this job. I understand where Lot’s wife was coming from. I will look back.

With my new job as writer, I will most certainly have more time to write. I’ve another non-fiction book I’d like to write this winter, and ideas for a couple of novels I’d be delighted to beat out of a willing keyboard. If my new full-time job is writer, my new part-time job is going to be “find an agent for my fiction.” If there’s anyone out there that wants to be my fiction agent, drop me a line and we’ll talk. I have finished two novels, a stage play with 17 original songs, and a short story (about peak oil!) that knocked ‘em dead in Maine a few years ago. And, of course, I want to write more. But I need an agent for my fiction. Anyone? Anyone?

Let’s end this on the most incredible high note possible: Last week I received a hand-written note from Harper Lee. That, to me, is like having God show up at your birthday party to give you a puppy. Whew.

The Germans get it in one

So there’s a new report out on peak oil, leaked from a German military think tank. The report spells out the dire consequences of peak oil, and says this is it: It happened this year. It’s tough to argue with the Germans. They tend to get their facts straight and don’t go in for a lot of sugar coating. I tend to believe them.

Historically, the German military has always had a major stake and interest in oil. During the middle of the 20th century, when half of the German military was on a road trip through scenic Russia and the other half was on a working vacationing in France, the folks back home were saddled with the important task of keeping everyone moving right along - without oil. They worked very hard to develop synthetic oil, and found then what we know now: Yeah, you can do it. You can make synthetic oil, but: It’s very expensive, labor intensive, takes a lot time and it’s difficult, if not impossible, to make all you need. So now, when the Germans say we’ve reached peak oil, I do think they know of what they speak. I also think, for Germans, they are being wildly optimistic. That doesn’t seem like them at all.

Well, no matter what, now another precinct weighs in. The Germans say it happened this year. I said it happened in 2005, but I admit mine was just a barely educated guess. By the time you feel it, by the time you see it, the actual date of peak oil won’t matter at all. People who have studied peak oil for years often argue whether it will be a fast crash or a slow crash as the oil goes away. My answer is that it will be a slow crash until it gets to you. Then it’s going to seem mighty fast.

In the meantime, it was good to see the Germans say something about it publicly, even if the report was leaked. As for me, I’m just happy to be able to report the report, and to be able to offer up Basil Fawlty’s most famous quote: “I mentioned the war once, but I think I got away with it.”

What Fun!

I spent a little bit of time yesterday evening chatting with Dave McGee and Sean Phipps on Dave’s radio show. I had called a few minutes before my appointed interview time, and got to listen to some of the show as I was on hold. It was interesting to hear them go after both the President and Glenn Beck with equal cheek, and I had to wonder what I was in for when my turn came. As it turned out, I had no reason to worry. We had a great time and laughed like crazed hyenas.

We talked about peak oil, of course, and I equated it with peak dating, and how you’re never quite sure when you’ve reached peak date, so how could we know peak oil? They got a kick out of that, and I think it made Sean ponder his big date last week. Was that his peak date? And at what point does he admit that it was? Peak oil is the same way.



Both my publisher and my publicist are going to have me trotting in October, promoting Peak of the Devil, and I like that. I am not shy. Having performed on stage, in tights, at the local Renaissance Festival for some years, I have no fear of crowds or cameras — as long as I am wearing pants. I always check before I go on. Let’s see. . . Yep, they’re there. I’m golden.

If you’re lucky, you will hear me on the radio or see me on TV over the next six weeks or so. And if I’m lucky, you’ll listen. I promise to keep the message up beat and entertaining, despite the decidedly down beat and somber subject matter. I feel a little bit like Country Joe and the Fish here: “Ain’t no time to wonder why, whoopie we’re all gonna die!” Oh, I could so re-write that song for these times.

So keep your ears open for the sound of my lilting, if not dulcet tones on the radio. Look for my mug on the tube. Who knows? I might be there. Just remember, no matter how funny it might sound at the moment, and no matter what I say, the underlying message is far more serious than I will ever let on.

Now don’t touch that radio dial!