Planes, Trains and Automobiles - Peak Travel

Eric Morris, in his “Peak Travel?” article in the January 11, 2011 New York Times, has pointed out that we madcap, drive-crazy Americans are now actually driving less, and have been since 2005. From the end of WWII to about the year 2000, it was all about driving more and going further each year. These days, not so much. Now we go less. Is this a peak oil thing? Maybe sort of, but not exactly.

While it is true that we tend to drive less as gas gets more expensive, the massive tide of internet shopping has also served to cut down the annual miles driven. Oddly enough, Eric was only looking at miles driven. I would like to have seen some mention of miles flown, and of miles traveled by train. And I would have liked to have seen flying miles drop as rail miles rose - but I can’t say that is happening. I didn’t see it. But maybe we really are traveling less.

In the comments after Mr. Morris’s article, one poster (“Drill-Baby-Drill drill Team”) pointed out that the grand iconic classic of all road trips, the one where Joseph took Mary back home from Jerusalem to Bethlehem to comply with that pesky Roman census thing, was a trip of only eight miles. And my lovely wife points out that there is no mention in the Bible of a donkey being involved, making it rather likely that Mary walked.

The point to be made here is that at one time, a trip of eight miles was a very, very big deal, indeed. A trip of, quite literally, Biblical proportions. These days, it’s lunch. I figure I could walk eight miles in a little less than three hours, as I tend to saunter along at a blistering three-mph clip. Those same eight miles would take less than an hour on my bicycle, and about 15 minutes in the truck, depending on the lights. But what if we go back to bikes and donkeys and feet?

Considering the viability of mass transit in America, the foot-and-bike option seems likely as the oil gets scarce. Author James H. Kunstler (www.kunstler.com) has famously said America has a rail system that would be an embarrassment to Bulgaria — and he was being polite. We essentially have no passenger rail system to speak of for the vast bulk of America. You wanna get there? Then you wanna drive.

I live in Clearwater, Florida, right across the bay from Tampa and just north of St. Petersburg. Pinellas County, home to St. Petersburg, Clearwater, 22 other cities and almost one million people packed tightly into just 280 square miles, has no passenger rail service at all. No light rail, no Amtrak service, no Disney-inspired monorail, nothing. We have some buses, but even they don’t go to all corners of the county. There are two buses that go to Tampa, but only on weekdays. Oh, we do have a Greyhound Bus Station over on the other side of the mall. Maybe. I honestly haven’t thought to even look to see if it’s still there, now that I think about it. We are, after all a nation of drivers, even if we are driving less.

And what if we are driving less? That’s a good thing. I expect we’ll see more of that, or less, I guess. I’m hoping as we all drive less we’ll see more of what was right there all around us all along. We will live locally, and we will (finally) know where we live. We will become neighbors. I like that. Do you?

Let's go for a ride . . .

So here it is mid-January, and I’m planning for a comfy little bicycle ride in late March. Specifically, I’m planning the First Annual Pinellas County Tweed Ride on my 60th birthday, Saturday, March 26, 2011, and I would be absolutely honored to see you there. The ride will begin at 10 a.m. at Eagle Lake County Park on Keene Road in Largo, Florida. (The park has a parking lot designated for trail parking right in the middle of it. We’ll start there.) The ride will go from there, ten miles out to Safety Harbor, Florida, for a nice lunch at the classic Safety Harbor Spa.

And what, exactly, is a Tweed Ride? A Tweed Ride is a casual bicycle ride for owners of vintage English three-speed bicycles, and the proper cycling attire is required of all participants. I’m having a pair of pants altered to cycling knickers even as I type. They’ll be ready next Tuesday. I’ve a fine vest and cap, but I’m going to need just the right tie. And no, I am not joking. You’ve probably never seen me in a tie. Few people have. And now you will.

Why bother? Why got to all the trouble? Because we can. Because it looks like a truly wonderful way to spend the day. And because I don’t look nearly so clever in spandex. Mostly, I blame these guys: www.3speedtour.com. Have a good long look through that incredible web site. That is a two-day ride in Minnesota. Mine is but a short one-day ride in Florida, but you get the idea. If the whole world looked like that wonderful web site every day, I’d be a very happy man, indeed. I shall, in the meantime, settle for just one day of it: My Birthday. Would you like to go for a ride?

In a concession to the harsh reality of modern life, the ride will avoid roads entirely. We will utilize the sidewalks on Belleair Road to get us to Pinellas County’s Progress Energy Trail, take that to Clearwater’s Ream Wilson Trail and take that to Safety Harbor’s Bayshore Trail — which will take us right to the front door of the Safety Harbor Spa. Ahhhh.

In truth, the ride is equal parts theater and cycling. You must dress the part and play the part of the proper English cyclist between the wars. You may drop the accent if you hold tight to the decorum. It will be interesting to see who shows up. The ride has already generated some local interest, as March is Florida Bicycle Month. It all comes down to who has the bike and who has the clothes. And who’s willing to put in 20 miles on that bike, dressed like that.

I would be thrilled if this ride became an annual event, and it just might. It’s like nothing else we’ve done down here in these modern times, so it might be quite the event to attend in the years ahead. Of course you’ll want to be at the first one, won’t you? Everyone will be there.

Just don’t snicker at my knickers.

Meatspace redux

After my rant about the importance of Meatspace, I have to say that yes, I do spend a fair amount of time in that alternate universe that is Cyberspace. In years past, I have been a regular on a very small number of forums, my all time favorite being a sort of general discussion forum hosted by my good friend Mahatma Randy. His was something of an invitation-only cybergathering, and was quite the crowd of entertaining literates. I miss it still and think about it often.

With the melt-down of Matt Savinar’s “Life After The Oil Crash” (LATOC) forum, I was lucky enough to have been found and directed over to its predecessor, The Oil Age forum at www.theoilage.com. This new forum is home to many of my friends from the old LATOC forum, and as you know, it’s always good to be among friends. If you have an interest in peak oil (and the fact that you are here, reading this, would indicate that you do), I recommend that you have a look at The Oil Age forum. No, you don’t have to read the whole thing. I sure don’t. I try to keep an eye on the peak oil breaking news and the general discussion forums, just to keep up with what’s happening back in Meatspace with regard to global oil.

For my bicycling news, I trust my friend Jack Sweeney and all of the good folks over at www.bikecommuters.com. I like to stop by there and see what’s new and who’s doing what where on a bicycle these days. It’s not exactly a forum, but you can post comments at the end of each entry. (Kinda like here.) Whenever I need an attitude adjustment, and need to go to My Happy Place, I dial in www.3speedtour.com. Ahhhhhh….. Now that’s what I want my whole world to look like every day.

And, of course, the other place I am is here. Each of my more-or-less weekly blogs on this site has a comments section at the end, and with the help of my ever-vigilant publisher, I do try to jump in and comment where comment is needed. But wait, there’s more. . . .

If you need to, you can always email me. I'm at chip.haynes@yahoo.com and I try to answer my email every day, except on days that I don’t.

It's the end of the year as we know it . . . .

I learned a fun new word this week: Meatspace. Definition: Not cyberspace, where we all seem to be spending more and more time, but that other place — the real place where we are when we’re not totally absorbed by the internet, texting, Facebook, MySpace and failblog.org. That is to say, the real world. And let me tell you, meatspace is a way scary place.

There’s no instruction manual for meatspace. No shortcuts, no pause button and probably not any do-overs unless (here’s hoping) the Hindus got it right. In meatspace, your avatar is not as cool. It’s probably visually wider, and lacks the cool haircut and hip wardrobe. If you don’t like where you are in cyberspace, you can change it with a click. We are not nearly so lucky in meatspace. We’re kinda stuck here 24/7.

I mention this because I see too many people who tend to live out their lives in cyberspace, and only show up in meatspace to eat and sleep. They have no real connection to anything else in meatspace, and I think that’s going to bite them in their meatspace behind hard enough that they might actually notice here before long.

I’m watching gasoline prices steadily rise. I’m reading about a number of oil producing Middle Eastern countries starting to scale back their domestic subsidies — the very thing I wrote about in 60 Days Next Year back in 2004 that sets off a decidedly unpleasant chain of events around the world in that work of fiction-at-the-time. Will life imitate art? Stay tuned. It’ll probably be on YouTube.

We’re scootin’ right along toward a time of great change here in meatspace, and for anyone fool enough to say, "Oh, we had no warning," I can only say, "No, you had no warning because you weren’t paying attention. You were too busy in cyberspace, posting to your Facebook page, tweeting your friends and checking out all the cool apps on your hot new cell phone." Meanwhile, here in meatspace, we’re watching the situation get more interesting every day — but not any better.

The irony of this rant being nothing but another blog in cyberspace really is funny, isn’t it? Just promise me that at some point this week, you’ll turn off the computer and walk outside, if only for a minute. Me, I’m going for a bicycle ride tomorrow. A real bicycle ride, on a real bicycle, in real meatspace.

Hope I don’t get a meatflat.

Happy holidays . . . .

Jingle bells, jingle bells...! It’s Christmas time, and let me say this right up front: I really DO like fruitcake. (I guess that comes as no great surprise.) I also enjoy Christmas cookies, eggnog (non-alcoholic), and everything else that makes us make those ridiculous New Year’s resolutions. Whew. I really need to.

I also breathe a sigh of relief at the end of every year, knowing that we did another lap around the sun without any great resource glitch. As of right now, we still have plenty of oil, natural gas and coal — plenty of power. But, every year we manage to maintain the status quo is a year taken at the expense of the downside curve. Ain’t I just the greenest Grinch?

Oil is a finite commodity. Sadly, if not ironically, the Kardashians are not. We may have an endless supply of Kardashians well into the foreseeable future, while the oil is going to get tight, and the longer we use more of it now, the tighter it’s going to get sooner, later. And if you were expecting a “tight Kardashian” joke there, well, just keep in mind they have an infinite supply of lawyers while I do not. Anyway, this is Christmas, and we should all play nice. If only for a week or so.

In a couple of weeks it will be 2011, and it looks like maybe legendary oil guru Dr. Colin Campbell was wrong when he said we’d see serious oil problems in the first decade of the 21st century. (He did, however, totally peg the peak of oil production. Good call there, Doc!) We’re still moving right along, no worries in sight — and that’s a bad thing. The longer we stay ok, with plenty of oil, the steeper the drop will be on the far side when it starts to run out. Again, oil is a finite commodity. We can use it all up now, or we can pace ourselves. No, wait — it’s too late for that pace thing. Might as well use it all right now. Where are my truck keys?

So when you raise that toast on New Year’s Eve and watch Ryan Seacrest in Times Square, look around the room. Focus on your friends and family and understand: It will not always be like this. Enjoy it. Appreciate it.

Happy New Year, y’all.

Baby, it's cold outside

Ok, so it’s cold here right now. I did not come down here for this. I live in west central Florida (Clearwater), and they’re talking about it being down in the thirties here for a couple of nights. Yeah, I know, compared to, say, Minnesota, this ain’t so bad. Balmy, even. By the end of the week, it will be back up in the 70s, so I’m not complaining, but still…

So what do you suppose will happen up north when natural gas and heating oil start to get too expensive, and then become unavailable in the coming years? How long would your house be inhabitable in the winter when the power goes off? These are not idle questions. Of the four seasons, there’s one that can kill you. What’s it like where you live in the winter? And is it worth the risk? It’s not like you’re going to get much of a warning on this, you know. (Well, other than me. Here. Now.)

In his book, The Adjustment, Charles MacArthur wrote of the disaster that befalls the New York metro area when the power grid fails totally in the middle of a February blizzard. It is a stark and sobering look at just how fast it can all go so very badly when the power goes off in deep winter — especially in a big city. A matter of hours. Maybe minutes. In his novel, Charles writes of an immediate and mass migration south, by any means necessary. Not everyone makes it. I think he got that part absolutely right as well. I do expect to see people moving to Florida in record numbers as the north (the Midwest and the northeast) becomes more difficult and less comfortable in the years ahead, all in the aftermath of peak oil and declining natural gas supplies. Lacking power and heat, I would expect Canada to be emptied out in fairly short order — and I wouldn’t blame them one bit. It gets cold up there, I hear.

Sometimes I wonder if a slow decline in energy resources is worse than a sudden crash. Slow declines tend to offer hope — it might not be that bad — we might turn it around — maybe it’s gonna be okay. With a fast crash, you know you’re pooched and you have to deal with it Right Now. Fast is a great motivator.

Until last winter, I said I never knew why anyone would live north of I-10. We had such a long, cold winter here last year, I’ve amended that to I-4. Another bad one and I’m dropping it down to Alligator Alley. And St. Thomas, in the USVI, is looking mighty good about now. Ah, but we will be warm and sunny again by the weekend here. All will be well. For now. For us.

If you live in the far north, or even north of I-10, you might want to take a very serious look around you. Three seasons a year, you’ve got a good thing going, but winter is not your friend. Please don’t mistake it for one. And always remember: The Sunshine State awaits!

One more thing: if you still haven't found that perfect gift for the holidays, Peak of the Devil is on sale for just $12.95, free shipping and guaranteed delivery before December 25 if you order by December 21. Simply click here and we'll get it for you.

What about electric cars?

There’s been a lot of interest in electric cars lately, with the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt both about to hit the market. Too many people still see them as the answer to our dependency on oil, both foreign and domestic. Sadly, they are not the answer, and it’s tough to get people to understand that.

First, electricity is not an energy source. It is an energy carrier. That is, we have to generate electricity using another energy source — such as oil. Using oil to make electricity so we don’t use oil makes no sense at all. And yet, that’s exactly what people are lining up to do.

This next generation of electric cars (they’ve only been around a hundred years or so) still have a lot in common with their antique ancestors: they are expensive, heavy and have a limited range. Take a look at the Chevy Volt, if you can find one to look at. It will cost about forty thousand dollars and take up to ten hours at 110v to charge the batteries to go just 40 miles — about an hour’s drive on a ten hour charge.

The Nissan Leaf will go for over thirty thousand dollars and still takes eight hours to charge using an optional (recommended) 220v charging station you can have built into your home. Obviously, one does not buy an electric car to save money. No word yet on what replacement battery packs might cost for these cars when the time comes — and it will.

Power companies across America are both sweating bullets and jumping for joy. Sure, the extra income will help (and you’d better believe these things will make a serious bump in your monthly electric bill), but, in the words of the Associated Press’s Jonathan Fahey, “Plugged into a socket, an electric car can draw as much power as a small house. The surge in demand could knock out power to a home, or even a neighborhood.” Estimates on the cost of having a 220 volt charging station wired into your home go as high as $4,000 (for both the purchase of the charging station and the installation) over and above the price of the car, but not taking tax credits into consideration.

Electric cars are going to be the next Prius; that is, the next greenwash on wheels. People will buy them to look green, and still do nothing to curb their miles or their dependency on fossil fuels and private motor transport. They are not the answer.

To me, it makes more sense to buy a $10,000 subcompact and work harder to drive it less. Says the guy with the full-size pick up. Ah, well. It will be interesting to see how this next wave of electric cars are received by the motoring public.

And I just wish GM had worked harder to make the EV-1 their electric vehicle flagship. Now that was a cool electric car.