Oil Cuba China Oil

I’m lousy at predicting the future, but I can tell you with some certainty what’s coming soon in the wacky world of offshore oil. Even though the US government has dropped the ban on offshore drilling in US waters, look for everyone and their sock monkeys to be all up in arms before long over what’s happening south of Key West. And what IS happening south of Key West? They are getting ready to drill for oil off shore. So what’s the problem?

It’s Cuba.

Cuba is in the process of offering up offshore oil leases to foreign countries to begin exploring and drilling for oil off of their northwest coast — the coast closest to Key West. These new offshore rigs have the potential to be as close to Key West as the Deepwater Horizon rig was to Louisiana. The only thing is, these new rigs aren’t going to be run by BP. They will be Chinese.

Now you’d better believe there will be plenty of people on the north side of the Florida Straits all spit-flustered over this one, even though it ain’t our oil and it ain’t our ocean. Their waters, their oil, their call, and there isn’t a thing we can do about it. Jack Kennedy is long gone, and we’re not talking Soviet ICBMs here. Still, too many people here in the US tend to get possessive over anyone’s oil, especially when it’s not ours.

Now there’s no doubt that Cuba could use the oil and the income. Even The Bearded One himself recently admitted that the communist thing wasn’t working so well for them these days. Who knows? Maybe a spanking new oil industry will give them the boost they need to dig themselves out of their own red menace and join the real world, already in progress. That would be cool. A free Cuba would be a dream come true for a great many people. But probably not for the Chinese.

The downside of having the Chinese involved in the Cuban oil industry is their presence in the event of any meaningful change in Cuba. This is setting the stage for a very nasty chess game on a very small board. I can see where China would do all it could to keep Cuba communist to protect their investment in the Cuban oil industry, to the point of sending armed troops. And I think I speak for even the most laid back of Parrotheads when I say that Communist Chinese troops in North America should NOT be taken lightly.

For now, the Cuban oil industry is just getting started. It will take some years for the offshore rigs to be put in place, the wells to be drilled and the oil to be pumped. I would like to think that means there is still time for America to reverse some 60 years of total political idiocy and begin a meaningful dialogue with Cuba that could result in us having some sort of stake and share in what we cannot stop. It’s time for us to grow a brain and treat Cuba with the respect we offer any other country.

Like, say, China.

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What if I’m wrong about Peak Oil?

Back in the 1970s there was a bumper sticker that read simply: QUESTION AUTHORITY. I think that’s still a valid request, and I think the bumper sticker and some little buttons with that phrase are still available today. The thing is, I’m no authority. I’m just a guy who reads a lot and writes a little. Still, you should ask: What if I’m wrong?

What if oil doesn’t peak? What if supplies don’t get tight? What if we just keep on keeping on, always finding enough oil to get us by in the years and decades ahead? Boy, wouldn’t that be great? Not many people want to be wrong. On this, I’d be delighted.

What you have to ask is this: How much do we know about global oil production with absolute dead certainty? The answer is "Not much." What we do know is this: The peak of oil discoveries world-wide was back in the 1960s, some 45 years ago. We also know we are using oil faster than we are finding it. And in all honesty, that’s all we know for absolute dead certain. Everything else is an educated guess.

We do not know how much oil remains in the earth, nor do we know where it all is, or if we can get to it, ever. Because that is really what we know, we say this: We will never extract all of the oil. There will always be oil in the earth. But you have it understand that “peak oil” is not about the last drop. It’s simply about the production curve. At some point, we assume, we will no longer be able to extract enough oil to meet our base-line demand. That is, we will not be able to conduct our lives as we do now, even after we implement available energy alternatives and conservation. Even after demand destruction. At some point, oil depletion will become a first world problem. Our problem. Of that, I am fairly certain.

But, again what if I’m wrong? Tell you what: If I’m wrong, and the oil doesn’t run low, I’m gonna buy the 1972 Cadillac Eldorado convertible I always wanted and drive that sucker coast to coast with the top down and Springsteen on the eight-track.

Wanna come along?

Another oil rig explodes. Second verse; same as the first?

I’m ‘Enery the eighth I am, ‘Enery the Eighth I am, I am… no, wait, I’m really not. And I know you hear people say they hate being right all of the time, but you won’t hear that from me. I don’t mind so much. So here we go again already so soon.

In the news today: Another oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico has exploded. This one is 80 miles off the coast of Louisiana. No word yet on any leakage, but at least no one was killed. We’ll see how the story evolves over the next day or so.

I’m the guy who said we could expect more of this sort of thing, but I honestly didn’t expect to see another one so soon. Then again, it has been over four months since the Deepwater Horizon went to the briny deep. Desperation breeds adventure, it seems. Oil companies are willing to take the risk because they have little choice. If you want the oil, and they want to sell you that oil, they have to go where the oil is, and they’ve already been where most of the oil was. We’ve plucked the low-hanging fruit, and now we’re serious about trying to keep up appearances and keep the oil flowing — no matter what it takes, who gets hurt or how many fish get in the way. Drill, baby, drill!

In truth, if you looked at every oil well in the Gulf of Mexico, you’d probably find a lot of them leaking oil to one degree or another. Such is the unnatural nature of the business. But that ain’t news. The darned thing has to blow up to make it on TV. And you’d better believe this will be the lead story tonight.

So sit back, relax and get comfy. Here we go again. Second verse, same as the first. And I can’t help but wonder where Peter Noone is these days.

BP Dispersants: It seemed like a good idea at the time

Man oh man oh man. You ever notice how, when a guy does something really stupid, the long rambling excuse he offers up later so often starts with the phrase, “It seemed like a good idea at the time.”? Yeah, well, see, there was this big oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico awhile back. It was in all the papers. Sure, they capped that puppy, but not before a whole mess of gooey oil got loose. One of the first things the oil company did, in response to the massive leak, was to spray dispersants on the oil that gathered over the surface of the water. It seemed like a good idea at the time.

Dispersants. Not gather-it-all-upants. Not make-it-go-awayants. Dispersants. So then what did the oil do? Class? That’s right, Johnny: It dispersed. It did not go away and it was not gathered up. It dispersed. The big gooey mess was, through the magic of toxic chemicals, reduced to teeny, tiny little messes that maybe no one would see. Or so I’m sure they hoped. All together now: It seemed like a good idea at the time.

I have to admit: I was really skeptical at the time when the marine science guys from USF came back from the northern Gulf of Mexico and said they had found oil plumes moving well under the surface of the ocean out there. I mean, come on, we all know oil floats. How can oil not float? It’s oil. Apparently, if you spray crude oil with the right dispersant, it breaks up into very small molecules and does not float. Out of sight, out of mind. Were they out of their minds? We’ll leave that topic for another blog. Right now, we’ve got an oil mess to clean up. If we can find it.

So now we have the Gulf of Mexico looking virtually free of surface oil, but: They are finding more and more oil moving below the ocean’s surface or sunk to the bottom in sizes small enough to enter the food chain. And dude, you are part of that food chain. This is your food chain we’re talking about here. The phrase “fish oil” is taking on a whole new ugly meaning. How soon before we see this oil in the fish we can’t eat?

Even though this all started months ago, we still have not seen the last of it. People are just now finding out how badly the dispersed oil has messed with the subsurface environment in the Gulf of Mexico. It may be years before we know the full impact and how long it might take for the oil to work its way out of the ecosystem. Until then, expect this to be a sort of lingering annoyance thing. It’s no longer news, as it is no longer spectacular. The ongoing contamination of life in the Gulf will not make the headlines. It will be the subject of quiet reports and research papers. No biggie. It’s just the death of the ocean. Who’s gonna notice?

Maybe the oil company wasn’t so stupid after all. They got rid of the visible signs of their screw-up. Subsurface microscopic oil contamination is tough to film for the evening news. The situation has become all technical and scientific, and who wants to read about that? Too many big words. Maybe, from BP’s point of view, it wasn’t such a bad idea after all.

Maybe, like so much else they BP does, it was simply evil.

Waiting for the other shoe

So here we are in the middle of August, BP has capped their runaway oil well and all is right with the world. (Man, that was tough to type with a straight face.) The media (and America’s) attention span being what it is these days, the oil spill in the Gulf is now officially old news, and to keep hammering away at it makes you look a bit out of it, sort of like a bad SNL skit. Or a really good one. And yet. . . .



And yet, I sit here waiting for the other shoe to drop. Yeah, they capped the well. The relief wells are not yet drawing off the oil to release the pressure, so there’s still a chance the original well will rupture far below the sea bed (below the cap plug) and turn a major oil spill into something far, far worse — and impossible to stop. Of course, that hasn’t happened yet. That we know of. I did get a kick this week — this week — out of Greenpeace sending a ship out there to check it out. Uh, guys? Where ya been? This all happened four months ago. You’re late to the party. Way late. It’s old news. But thanks for stopping by.

Let me tell you how old this news is: A couple of weeks ago, a tugboat hit a barely submerged well head up that way, in the Gulf, and it spewed oil like a big fountain in Vegas, right out there in the Gulf for all to see (if you just happened to be there). It hardly got any mention at all in the media. It’s old news. There are most certainly other wells out there, abandoned and leaking away like crazy, but no one’s going to bother to mention them. That’s really old news. I guess Lady Gaga is hogging all of the headlines these days until Michael Jackson does something interesting. Like breathes.

Of course this will happen again; that is, there will be other oil spills/leaks/whoopsies out in the Gulf, but here’s how the media works: If the next one isn’t bigger than this one, you might not ever hear about it at all. It ain’t news unless it’s new.

Meanwhile, before Lady Gaga walks in here and punches my lights out (or Michael Jackson does a very impressive zombie dance), how about we compare notes? If you have made any changes in your life in response to the possibility of peak oil, I’d like to know what you’ve done. We’ve lowered our home energy use (to 5 kwh a day) and I do a fair amount of practical cycling around town. If you’ve done anything in the way of prepping for peak, post it in the comments section here and we’ll talk about it.

The gloves come off. The claws come out.

You know me. I’m a nice guy, more than willing to give everyone the benefit of the doubt. But if there is no doubt? Watch out.

On December 21, 1988, Pan Am Flight 103, from London to New York, blew up over Lockerbie, Scotland. Two hundred and seventy people lost their lives. In January of 2001, Abdelbaset Ali Mohaned Al Megrahi, a Libyan, was convicted of the bombing and sentenced to life in prison for the event. He was serving that sentence when a doctor examined him, proclaimed that he had advanced prostate cancer, and should be released on humanitarian grounds and returned to Libya to live his last days. He was released in August 2009 and returned to a hero's welcome. As of July of 2010, Megrahi is alive and well.

Now, as it turns out, Megrahi’s examination, diagnosis and repatriation were all arranged by British Petroleum in return for some consideration by Libya for a deal with BP for oil rights in that country. And that subtle shaking noise you just heard beneath your feet? That would be the Devil himself, shuddering in disgust. Even the Prince of Darkness, it seems, has higher moral standards than British Petroleum.

It’s one thing to screw up out of greed and laziness and corner-cutting and have your oil rig blow up. It’s quite another to go considerably out of your way to aid a convicted terrorist and a very unpleasant regime that quite honestly hates you anyway, just because you think you can make some money off the deal. Money made over two hundred and seventy dead bodies. Money made because you freed their murderer, and you didn’t even agree with him or his ideology. You just wanted the chance to make the money, with no concern for honor, pride, ethics or morals. This takes it to a whole new level. British Petroleum is neither lazy nor greedy. British Petroleum is pure evil.

Now it’s true that various elected officials here in the United States are looking into BP’s actions, but we are talking about things that happened in other countries, so there was really no crime committed here on US soil – unless you count the very presence of BP itself, and I do. And by now, you know merely boycotting your local BP station will have no impact whatsoever on BP the corporation. In a perfect world, which this is obviously not, BP would be removed from the US and all of its upper management, world-wide, required to finish the terms of Megrahi’s life sentence. Every last one of them. But that’s not going to happen, either. The Scottish Government will “look in to it,” as will ours, and, in the end, it comes down to this: They got away with it. BP got the guy out of prison and got him sent home, where he lives to this day. At some point, BP will quietly begin its oil operation in Libya, and at some point, someone’s going to be driving around with gasoline that should be dyed very blood red to reflect its true source.

And when it comes to British Petroleum, even the Devil has to step back in awe.

A sheep in wolf's clothing

I can make myself invisible any time I want. I did it the other day, and it was great. I got tons of stuff done with no interruptions. No one bothered me at all. Matter of fact, people went out of their way to not see me. All I had to do was wear my BP shirt.

The Lovely JoAnn and I usually go top off our truck’s gas tank every Saturday morning after we have breakfast at Tory’s Café. Charlie’s BP station is just down the road from the café, on the corner of Highland and Belleair, and we know everyone there. It’s a Saturday morning ritual. One morning awhile back I was talking to Nan, their Saturday morning attendant, and she said she forgot to take off her BP logo shirt before she went grocery shopping, and couldn’t believe how easy it was to shop when people made a mad scramble to get away from you. Oh, really? Oh, really. Oh, I’ve got to try this. She found us a couple of shirts, and I gave it a go. It was great. People saw that shirt and couldn’t get away fast enough. I was like a seeping leper with a big grin, looking to shake their hand. It was hilarious. I got stuff done.

Of course, I had also told Nan that Charlie should be putting the monthly franchise fees that he normally pays to BP in an escrow account, seeing as how that “paying for the corporate goodwill” thing isn’t exactly working out these days. He’s really paying for being a BP station now, in many, many different ways. And I don’t see that changing for the better any time soon.

So here’s the deal: If you do happen to see someone walking around in a BP shirt, give ‘em a smile. Odds are it wasn’t their fault. Odds are they just work for a local gas station, and they got caught up in it just like everyone else. They are just as worried and angered by it all as you are - maybe more so, considering the extra level of poo they have to put up with these days, just for working for a franchised store. (They probably don’t even really work for BP itself.) So cut them some slack. It’s not like they’re clubbing baby seals. (Unless, of course, they are.)

As for me, I’ve got my BP shirt anytime I want to travel unnoticed and get things done. I can set high-speed shopping records in the grocery store and cruise through the mall unmolested by the kiosk crews. It really does work wonders, but I do draw the line: I won’t wear my BP shirt to the beach. No way.

Radio Interview 7/8/10

Check it out...had a great time doing it; hope you enjoy listening. We talked about the Deepwater Horizon, peak oil, my forthcoming book, Peak of the Devil: 100 Questions (and answers) About Peak Oil, and Jimmy Buffett.

Click here to listen.